state. david miliband and anne-marie slaughter will talk to us about the sanctions, refugee crisis and more. and as another earth day passes, we will bring you a big idea about how to wean countries like china and india off coal. but first, here's "my take." the next phase in the war in ukraine is now apparent. over the next few weeks and months, russian forces will try to expand control of their occupied territories in eastern ukraine and dig in. the ukrainian army and people will resist fiercely and low-grade battles will likely persist in these areas, as they have in donbas since 2014. that means the only way out of this conflict is to put enough pressure on russia to force it to the negotiating table and seek sanctions relief in exchange for a peace deal. to achieve this, the coalition against it needs the staying power to maintain and even ratchet up sanctions and embargoes against moscow. and that is only conceivable in a scenario in which energy prices come down from their current highs. if oil prices remain over $100 a barrel, and they can easily go much higher, europe will soon enter a recession and the entire global economy will see a drop-off of growth, and political backlash against the sanctions. this would almost certainly mean the collapse of the coalition against russia as countries would search for ways to gain cheaper energy. that is surely vladimir putin's hope. the only plausible path to keep the pressure on russia while not crippling the global economy is to get oil prices down and the only sustainable way to do this is to get the world's largest swing producer, saudi arabia, as well as other gulf states such as the uae and kuwait, to increase production of oil. american oil production is expanding as fast as it can. there are other paths worth trying such as easing the embargo on venezuela and returning to the iran nuclear deal. but the dove states can easily expand production by millions of barrels a day and keep those supplies flowing well into the future. yet, despite several new treaties by the united states, saudi arabia and the uae have refused to significantly increase production. and that brings us to the central issue, mohammad bin salman, the crown prince of saudi arabia. in the past biden has called saudi arabia a pariah. he has yet to hold a formal meeting with mohammad bin salman. in turn, mbs as he's often called, refused to increase oil productions and moved to strengthen his relations with russia and china. in a soon to be published council on foreign relations special report, they propose a grand bargain in which the u.s. would improve relations with the mbs and make specific pledges to protect saudi arabia in a return for a series of saudi moves for ending the war in yemen, to recognizing israel, to taking more enviroxplicit responsibilir the murder of journalist and "the washington post" columnist khas khashoggi. despite their surface disagreements with washington, all of these countries want more, solid american guarantees regarding their uncertainty in an increasingly stable middle east. the saw saudis were distressed after the attack on their oil facilities backed by yemen, the trump administration did practically nothing to retaliate. the ua faced a similar attack in january and was equally stressed that the biden administration was not more active in responding. there's a wage for washington to forge a new security umbrella in the region that includes israel, egypt and the gulf states. it would stabilize the community environment, foreclose the prospects of a nuclear arms race in the region and provide access to energy for the industrialized world. but that path would have to include making up with mohammad bin salman. i don't make this argument lightly. jamal khashoggi was my friend. in fact, when i visited saudi arabia in 2004, he was my companion and guide. i miss him dearly, even now. but the fact of the matter is mbs is likely to rule saudi arabia for the next 50 years. he is an absolute ruler like all of his predecessors but within the country, he is viewed as a modernizer and is extremely popular with saudi youth for curtailing the power of the religious believes, opening up the country to entertainment and tourism and giving women greater freedoms. most of those who advocate continuing the ostracism of mbs do not explain when or how it will ever end, leaving u.s./saudi relations in a permanently frozen dysfunctional state. international relations are often about choosing strategy over ideology. during the cold war, washington made common cause with mao's china to put pressure on the soviet union. if moscow wants to prevail in the new cold war, we need to be strategic in our outlook. go to cnn.com/fareed for a link to my "washington post" column this week. and let's get started. ♪ today marks 60 days of putin's war in ukraine. this week russia began an offensive in the donbas region and the military revealed its goal was to assert full control over he the country but the ukrainian resistance is strong. they remain in control of certain key cities and president zelensky expressed confidence that ukraine would defeat russian forces now that his pleas for arms have finally been answered. i wanted to get an assessment of this new russian offensive and off ukraine's ability to counter it. i'm joined by cnn military analyst, general mark hertling. general, the russians have fled with an enormous amount of firepower and manpower and you can see it in the ravaging town like mariupol. is russia going to prevail because of just that sheer force of the russian firepower? >> you know, fareed, the russian artillery is in great quantity and quantity has a quality all of its own. but i believe based on what they're attempting to do in this new phase of the operation, that ukraine is prepared to conduct counter artillery fires as well as maneuver forces to counter any activity along three very distinct active advances that russia has actually compressed their operations into. you're talking about free zones of operation from kharkiv into the donbas, north to the northeast and into the mick allay access in the black sea. oopts and at the same time they're going to continue this long-range harassing missile fire and rocket fire into this key major cities, which they have no intend on taking right now. it's just to deflect the attention of the ukrainian government and ukrainian military to help save their civilian population. >> how should we think about mariupol, which seems to be -- the city seems completely destroyed? can ukraine hold out? >> well, they've done an unbelievable job in terms of the forces that are in the city holding out against three different axis of advance by russian forces. it has been from a military perspective, from my observations, a phenomenal seize operation by the russians, but they have failed just because of the will of the ukrainian fighters that are inside that plant. those fighters, those ukrainians, have held up a large amount of russian forces in an area that both sides need. that town of mariupol, that once very large port city, has roads, railroads and in fact rivers going in different directions and it's a key logistics hub. as we get into this phase of the fight, logistics will be the most important aspect of this attrition warfare. >> mark, you told me privately there is a distinction between the ukrainian effort to defeat the russian army versus destroy the russian army. we have about a minute. can you just briefly explain that vital distinction? >> yes, both of those terms have doctrinal definitions in the in the, fareed. defeat means -- defeat takes away the ability of a force to continue their operation. they can no longer either supply themselves, man their force, move and fire. destroy means that they can no longer contribute to any kind of fight, even from a stationary position, that the force is so depleted and destroyed, that it no longer poses a threat to their enemy. so those are the things i will be looking for and we saw a defeat of the russian forces in the northern sector. what i'm seeing the potential for is ukraine to destroy the remaining forces of the russian army with the kind of artillery force. but there's a danger in that too. it will put mr. putin on the true horns of a dilemma if he no longer has a security force to execute his desires and his strategic objectives. >> i assume you mean he can then escalate with missiles and such. mark hertling, pleasure to have you on. >> pleasure, fareed. thank you. next on gps, the west is as engaged as it's ever been in the war in ukraine. what about the rest of the world? i'll discuss with an all-star panel when we come back. bath fitter. it just fits. visisit bathfitter.com to book your free consultation. ben isn't worried about retirement his personalized plan is backed by the team at fidelity. his ira is professionally managed, and he gets one-on-one coaching when he needs it. so ben is feeling pretty zen. that's the planning effect from fidelity stuff. we love stuff. and there's some really great stuff out there. but i doubt that any of us will look back on our lives and think, "i wish i'd bought an even thinner tv, found a lighter light beer, or had an even smarter smartphone." do you think any of us will look back on our lives and regret the things we didn't buy? or the places we didn't go? ♪ i'd go the whole wide world ♪ ♪ i'd go the whole wide world ♪ discover a simple way to use colors in managing diabetes! inspired by nature, onetouch verio reflect® meter shows instantly if you're below, within or above your range. it cheers you on and provides guidance. connected to your health and your phone. visit onetouch.com today. with angi, you can connect with and see ratings and reviews. and when you book and pay throug you're covered by our happiness check out angi.com today. angi... and done. the west arms to ukraine have undoubtedly boosted the country's defense but what is the west's long game to secure peace in ukraine and in europe? what should it be? joining me now, david miliband, president and ceo of the international rescue committee, former foreign minister of britain, anne-marie slaughter and kishore mahbubani from the national organization of singapore and longtime former diplomat. ann ann-marie, what should the west's long-term game be here? >> the first half of that game has to be simply stop the fighting. we're going to see the complete destruction of eastern and southern ukraine. if you look at what happened in 2014 when they took over part of eastern ukraine and crimea, it can just go forever, the fighting. we have to stop the fighting. second, however, we need a geopolitical configuration that is not russia and china, europep the united states and the rest of the world. if you look at what happened with the human rights vote, you saw india, brazil, mexico, south africa, egypt, indonesia all abstained. that is not a good geopolitical configuration. so the united states actually wants not to isolate russia and push it closer to china for the long term. and then longest of all, the united states needs to think about what is a european security architecture that makes europe actually whole and free and safe? i don't think we get there with putin in power. but putin's not going to be in power forever and we actually have to think about the next couple of decades where we can protect ukraine but russia is one thing integrated into europe. >> but he's in his late 60s, david miliband. he's not going anywhere any time soon or giving up any time soon. >> yeah, i think there's one overriding question which is whether or not dispensation after 2014 with crimea under western control, whether that holds and whether russia succeeds in claiming more territory in the eastern south or is pushed back. in thinking about that, there's a couple of important things. one, one of the lessons of the last 30 years has been an underestimate of the ukrainians themselves. they are center stage in this and the fist choice is for them, not the west. if they want to fight for their country, that's their choice. secondly, i do think we have to understand that at stake here is at one hand the world of anarchy because that is what is unleashed in mariupol and elsewhere, versus some kind of rules, some kind of order and that's why the framing i think the west should be adopting is not democracy versus autocracy but rules versus anarchy. that's a fundamental part of this. thirdly, i think ann marie is absolutely right to point out while the west is more united as before, the world is equally divided and the votes she referred to at the u.n. should be fundamental. from my point of view, the strategy has to be more about a mariupol free but a world which has rules to govern the way its run. >> let's get to precisely this issue, why is it when people think about democracy versus autocracy, the problem with that formulation, as david very well put it, is some of the world's largest democracies are at best sitting on the fence? india, indonesia, brazil, even mexico. what do you think is going on from your perspective? >> well, i think if you know when russia invaded ukraine, most of the world was horrified. it was terrible. and there was a great global consensus against it. but now i share the concerns of anne-marie and david that clearly the west, as you know, represents 12% of the world's population, 88% is outside the west. and the perception of the 88% has shifted in the last three months at all, and what they see now -- on the one hand i agree with david that the legal moral dimension here that russia is wrong but the rest of the world can also see that this is a geopolitical game where the west is trying to weaken russia and not seeking peace in russia. and that's the rest of the world saying, okay, if that's going to be your game in ukraine, if you want to weaken russia, that's your agenda, that's not our agenda. our agenda is to create a better world of rules and predictability and that's what the rest of the world will want to see, some kind of a fair idea of where are we going with all of these moves in ukraine? what's the destination? >> but kishore, it's putin who does not want to negotiate and until the russians feel as though they're forced to the negotiating table, you're not going to get a peace deal. zelenskyy from day one offered to negotiate and offered major concessions publicly, like ukrainian neutrality and no nato. it is putin who is not doing it because it appears he wants greater control over ukraine. what do you do then? >> you know, i was a diplomat for 32 years, fareed, as you know. diplomacy is not what people think completely is their position, it's what they negotiate privately. as you know, our good friend henry kissinger suggested a formula in 2013 in "the washington post" article and i believe what henry kissinger proposed in 2013 amended, it outlines ukraine is free to choose its own destiny, free to join the european union but also some kind of compromise between eastern and western sections of the country. so there are ways and means of achieving a diplomatic settlement and that's the tragedy in ukraine, the outline of a settlement was given by henry kissinger eight years ago. >> david miliband, again, it feels to me like zelenskyy proposed variations of what kishore is talking about. >> i think you're right. remember george cannon said 50, 60 years ago, russia's tragedy is that it can only see ukraine either as a muscle or enemy. and what he said then is russia's crime today because what they have done is invade. and the challenge you're laying down is absolutely right, the ukrainians are not the aggressors here. the unthinkable scenes we're seeing in mariupol that i fear will be repeated in other parts of the east of the country, whether it's more besiegements to come. what we have here is a klaczek scissors effect, where the greater and greater misery within ukraine will find ripple effects around the world because you remember the impact on food prices, impact on energy prices, at a time of a global debt crisis that's looming for too many emerging economies. those are forces that have been unleashed by this invasion. but it's not an invasion that has been precipitated by any actions on the part of the ukrainians. and that's why i come back down to this question, but the choice lies in moscow. if it insists on seeing a vessel or enemy next door in ukraine, it's a recipe for the total pulverization obliteration going on at the moment. stay with us, we're going to come back and talk more about russia but also the french elections going on as we speak. 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>> nato should take its time, above all. there's a real opportunity here to think much more creatively about european security architectures and western security architectures that do not simply expand nato ever further to the russian border, which honestly, it's not at all clear that nato will accept, that the american people will accept, but more importantly you can have the united states, canada, germany, britain, with a guarantee, a security guarantee for finland and sweden, really the north, you can think about a security architecture that works but then allows, again, over the course of decades for a far more flexible set of european security architectures that eventually would include russia. russia is part of europe, right? russia is part of europe. if you think about western literature, music, art, mass, all of that, that is the russian people. and we're not going to have security in this century, nor are we going to be able to work on the global problems that menace all of us unless we can at least imagine a security architecture that includes russia. this moment of possibility expansion of nato should be a trigger for rethinking, not for simply mindly expanding. >> quick thought on that and then i want to ask you, macron seems like he will win in france but with a much lower margin than he did the last time, this chirac did against marie le pen's father. how trouble are you by the rise of this far right populism in france? >> look, if you were a swede or fin, you don't want creativity at the moment, you want security. you've seen what has happened to the neighbors. and i think that is a fundamental point but if they qualify, they should be admitted because it's a security pact that will benefit from their commitment and it's a defensive alliance, nato, not an offensive alliance. whenever people talk about nato, quote/unquote, i remind them these are countries opting to join in because of what they fear from the east. on the french point, the significance of the election is not just mrs. le pen accident win, if that's the way things come out. macron on economic terms has been a successful golfvernment t you're right to draw attention to the rising tide that was 17%, now 30% on the far ride. my own view is that president macron will not be fiddling his thumbs the next five years. he will be an active president who will seize the historic significance of this moment. i think he will bolster the german commitment that was made in february, to rethink its international posture and i also think he will understand that europe has to think about different ways in his global engagement, not just china but the world on a much wider scale. africa is significantly important for him, middle east too. i think that's very, very important and i think could herald some really innovative policy making, the kind that anne-marie has talked about. >> kishore, one of the big questions a lot of people have is what is china's role here? you know, china ten years ago seemed like a country that wanted to be a kind of equal partner with the united states in co-managing the world. people talked about a g2, wanted to be much bigger than the u.n. and all of that kind of thing. right now it feels in a much more defensive posture, strongly aligning itself with russia, which really has become a kind of rogue state. is this where china wants to be, the kind of in the alliance of russia, north korea, iran, venezuela? those are the countries that have voted with russia. what do you think -- how do you think china is looking at this? >> well, no doubt that china has lost out as a result of the russian invasion of ukraine in many ways, the global instability, solidarity, growth of the economy is going down. but at the same time the fundamental directions of china haven't changed. because china at the end of the day is still the biggest beneficiary of the 1945 nuclear war, after the world. and i want to emphasize a key point, east asia, which has the world's largest share of population, is the guns are silent. the reason why the guns are silent is in this region there's a fanatic accommodation. so on a somewhat typical level, we have to stop seeing the world in black and white terms and see it in shades of gray. believe me, china will be much happier if they integrate with the whole world and not the ally of russia because they don't see that necessarily good in the long term. the game that is being played, a complex one where you have a kaleidoscope in the region and that makes it, as anne-marie said, don't make it black and white. include russia and include china. >> include russia even with putin waging this war? or wait it out? >> well, i think at the end of the day you have to ask yourself a simple question. fareed, i completely agree with you when you opened this program by saying the u.s. must have an accommodation. you're right. he's done terrible things. but at the same time putin has done terrible things. but is he going to go away? this is the fundamental mistake, you know, when you saw india modi embracing putin, that was a symbol. it is hard to manage but we better manage it and not just black and white the difference. >> on that philosophical note, kishore mahbubani, david miliband and anne-marie slaughter, thank you very much. if you want to learn more, watch a new documentary praeling on cnn tonight, the sundance award-winning cnn film "navalny," follows the russian opposition leader nealexi that valley through his attempted assassination, poisoning. it airs tonight at 9:00 on cnn. when we come back, a crisis in ukraine to the crisis around the globe. climate change on this earth day weekend. we'll talk to a man with a big idea to bring clean energy to a billion people when we come back. with hepatitis c i felt i couldn't be at my best for my family. in only 8 weeks with mavyret i was cured. i faced reminders of my hep c every day. i worried about my hep c. but in only 8 weeks with mavyret i was cured. mavyret is the only 8-week cure for all types of hep c. before starting mavyret your doctor will test if you've had hepatitis b which may flare up and cause serious liver problems during and after treatment. tell your doctor if you've had hepatitis b, a liver or kidney transplant, other liver problems, hiv-1,or other medical conditions, and all medicines you take. don't take mavyret with atazanavir or rifampin, or if you've had certain liver problems. if you've had or have serious liver problems other than hep c, there's a rare chance they may worsen. signs of serious liver problems may include yellowing of the skin, abdominal pain or swelling, confusion, and unexplained bleeding or bruising. tell your doctor if you develop symptoms of liver disease. common side effects include headache and tiredness. with hep c behind me, i feel free fearless because i am cured. talk to your doctor about mavyret. learn how abbvie could help you save. 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>> this is absolutely on that scale. and this is perhaps a bigger challenge. you know, today in order for us to defeat climate change, we have to approach this problem in a way that included everybody. and nearly 3 billion people on this planet only consume less than 1,000 kilowatt hours per year of energy and electricity. that's 1/12 of what a typical american will consume. they're going to consume more energy over time and the question is, is it going to be more coal or renewable electrification or new energy technologies that will reflect our planet and help the important families and communities lift themselves up and we're advocating for the latter. >> tell us, with the green revolution there was all of this new technology that was used. what is the technology at the core of your bet? what is it that makes you think you can provide that much -- -- that much power, that much electricity so that many people? >> the answer really is renewable energy systems. we've seen over the last decade as rockefeller's been pioneering this work to reach lower-income communities with solar mini grids, we've seen the cost of power go down significantly. photovoltaics down 90%. energy storage down more than 80%. we're about to make a huge leap into lithium ion phosphate battery storage for stationary grids and small mini and micro grids. it's now cheaper to provide power this way than it is through dirty diesel generators or coal connected to grids that try to reach into these communities and do so poorly. >> in that case, why is the market not doing it already? why do we need the rockefeller foundation? >> most government utilities look at providing power to rural communities in particular as just a traditional lossmaker. to them you build a big coal plant near a city, connect it to a grid, the extra cost of connecting grid connections out to rural communities, to villages, to small towns and cities in those settings is expensive. and sthethen the power they del on it is erratic and their systems are not very good for doing that. these new systems are loaded with technology. in addition to photovoltaics and battery stoerj, they use remote artificial intelligence based energy management systems. we have smart meters that allow a very poor household to pay for only what they consume and do so via their phone and do it very efficiently so that these systems are economically productive. and, frankly, fareed, because these work, we partnered with ta-ta power, which is now rolling out 10,000 of these systems in india. we'll get the cost down to under 15 cents a kilowatt an hour, at which point it beats any alternative source of energy and help 25 million people not just move out of poverty but do it on a clean development path that's safe for our planet and for their local communities. >> when will we see real results on this kind of scale you're describing? like you said, so far what you've done is impressive but small scale. when will we see millions and millions and millions of people on these grids? >> you're absolutely right. first, i would say we already reach about a million customers, 550,000 in india alone. what we see from those customers is not just that they pay their bills and use power and electricity, we see that they move themselves up the economic ladder. they might buy an electronic sewing machine and start a small business, or they might be an agriculture producer who then uses a rice hulling machine to improve their economics of their own business and lift their families up. that trend is taking off all over the world, and we believe that we will hit the targets we defined at the top, of reaching a billion people within a decade with renewable energy so that they're no longer undersieved and finally connected to the economic ladder of globalization and they can lift up themselves and their communities out of poverty. >> rajiv shah, this is a terrific, ambitious project and we wish you well. >> thank you, fareed. next on "gps," it has come as no surprise that western countries have condemned russia's aggression and send sends supplies to bolster russia's existence but did you know russia's allies have been wary to signing on to vladimir putin's war. why? that story after the break. hybrid work is here. it's there. it's everywhere. but for someone to be able to work from here, there has to be someone here making sure everything is safe. secure. consistent. so log in from here. or here. assured that someone is here ready to fix anything. anytime. anywhere. even here. that's because nobody... and i mean nobody... makes hybrid work, work better. stuff. we love stuff. and there's some really great stuff out there. but i doubt that any of us will look back on our lives and think, "i wish i'd bought an even thinner tv, found a lighter light beer, or had an even smarter smartphone." do you think any of us will look back on our lives and regret the things we didn't buy? or the places we didn't go? ♪ i'd go the whole wide world ♪ ♪ i'd go the whole wide world ♪ nina's got a lot of ideas for the future. and since anyone can create a free plan at fidelity, nina has a plan based on what matters most to her. and she can simply focus on right now. that's the planning effect. from fidelity. and now for "the last look." for all of putin's outlandish claims of wanting to de-nazi phi ukraine, his real ames have been evident from the start. turn rg the country into a puppet state and restoring some of the lost glory of the soviet empire. but this war has shown how little moscow has actually gotten from cultivating its own sphere of influence since the soviet union collapsed. after the cold war, most of the former communist states in europe took a fiercely anti-russian stance and joined nato or the european union. other countries in central asia, for example, stayed in moscow's orbit. in 1992, they formed the collective security treaty organization or cfto, russia's counterpart to nato. current members are armenia, belarus, kazakhstan. all of those nations except krig stan join him with the union. these companies trade heavily with russia and host russian bases on military facilities. in january facing anti-government unrest, kazakhstan's ruler called in the cfto troops, the forces to restore order. in 2020 they fought a bloody war with azerbaijan, they dispatched russian soldiers to keep the peace. yet despite these many connections during russia's war in ukraine, it's gotten almost nothing from armenia, kaz ig stan, kerz ig stan. tajikistan. no provided troops or supplies. kazakhstan refused a russian request for troops, those kazakhstan denies the request was ever made. whatever the case, it was all a remarkable contrast to the immense help ukraine has gotten from countries it has no formal alliance with. even kaz ig stan sent humanitarian aid to ukraine. you would expect them to stand with moscow in the court of international opinion. instead as the economists point out, they generally maintain neutrality. they've made carefully worded statements or stayed silent. none have recognized the breakaway republics in donbas. they all abstained in the main u.n. votes condemning russian aggression, though most of them did vote to keep russia in the u.n. human rights council. belarus is the one country that has given russia major assistance. the two nations enjoy a special relationship, having agreed in 1999 to form a so-called union state. in 2020 when massive protests threatened to topple the leader, putin came to the rescue with financing and promise of troops. so over the last few months lukashenko let russia use his territory as a staging ground for invading ukraine. belarus also consistently voted with russia in the u.n. but belarus hasn't entirely acted as a russian vas vasil. like the central asian countries, it has recognized the breakaway donbas republics and more importantly ruled out sending its own tornados to ukraine. think about how this is different from the heyday of the soviet union. in moscow's misadventure in afghanistan, the kremlin could mobilize material and manpower from across the soviet public, and crossing the crowd of 1968, the military received support from ball garra, poland and hungary. the real story here and maybe the divide between the ruler and the public in these pro moscow states, for example, they again on the military to obtain farr. if lukashenko loses the military support, he could lose support of his country. why? only 3% of belarusians want them to participate in the war. belarusian activists repeatedly sabotaged their country's railway system, hobbling russia's ability to move men and equipment. this is the ally putin is able to get even if he prevails in ukraine, a small country with little popular support and limited capacity to help russia. because at the end of the day, even if dictatorships, the voice of the people matters. thanks to all of you for being a part of my program this week. i will see you next week. yep! every business deservrves it... likeke one's that re-opened! hi, we have an appointmentnt. and every new business that just opened! like aromatherapy rugs! i'll take one in blue please! it's not complicated. at&t is giving new and existing business customers our best deals on every iphone. ♪ ♪ with angi, you can connect with and see ratings and reviews. and when you book and pay throug you're covered by our happiness check out angi.com today. angi... and done. 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