condemning russian strikes on kyiv, the capital. they happened while the u.n. secretary-general was wrapping up his visit to the capital on thursday. now, ukraine's emergency service says one missile hit an apartment building, setting it on fire. parts of the first two floors were destroyed, and authorities say ten people were injured. ukrainian president volodymyr zelenskyy says that attack happened right after he finished meeting with the u.n. chief, who w wasn't harmed. now, during the visit, antonio guterres visited the suburb of bucha where civilians were found dead after russian forces pulled out. while he stressed the need for the atrocities to be thoroughly investigated. have a listen. >> today, ukraine is an epicenter of unbearable heartache and pain. i witnessed that very vividly today around kyiv. the senseless loss of life, the massive destruction, the unacceptable violations of human rights, and the loss of war. it is vital that the international criminal court and other u.n. mechanisms conduct their work so there can be real accountability. >> ukrainian president volodymyr zelenskyy says ten russian servicemen have now been identified as suspects in crimes committed in bucha. meantime, a ukrainian official in the besieged city of mariupol says the azov steel plant there has been hit the heaviest by russian air strikes. hundreds of ukrainian soldiers are holed up there along with hundreds of civilians. ukraine's president says for there to be any hope for evacuation, russia must stop its shelling first. >> translator: moscow claimed they had allegedly ceased fire in mariupol, but the bombing of the defenders of the city continues. this is a war crime committed by the russian military literally in front of the whole world. russia's shelling of mariupol did not stop even when the u.n. secretary-general was holding negotiations in moscow. >> meantime, russia's renewed assault on eastern ukraine may not be going as well as moscow had hoped. a senior u.s. defense official says russia's military progress in the donbas region is slow as well as uneven as oren liebermann now reports, that's not the only sign that russia's invasion isn't going according to plan. >> reporter: near the city of kyiv, a russian tank flaw laid bare. the turrets separated from the body of the tank. a problem seen in other destroyed tanks as well. it's a design flaw in russian tanks that ukrainian forces have exploited. >> if the turret is penetrated and all our weapons penetrate the russian turrets, particularly the javelin from top, where armor is thinnest, but that exposed ammunition will cook off immediately. it will go high order, and the whole exposed ammunition program inside the turret will blow. >> reporter: russia's invasion of ukraine has revealed to the u.s. and the world the many problems within one of the world's largest militaries. the kremlin has tried to hide its losses from its own people, but ukraine's messaging since the war began has cranked out videos of russian armor being destroyed. the uk estimates russia as lost as many as 580 tanks since fighting began. >> the russians have significant mechanized capability, but as you look at the techniques and tactics, procedures that they used, they were not very effective. so you question the training, the leadership at the non-commissioned officer level, and their ability to provide basic logistics to a force that size. >> reporter: russian forces are now focusing on the donbas region in eastern ukraine, where a senior u.s. defense official says they have made some progress. they're trying to fix many of the problems that plagued the early invasion, using their advantage in firepower and trying to coordinate air and ground attacks. but officials say they don't appear to have learned those lessons yet. the performance of vladimir putin's military has surprised the u.s. >> we did not do as well in terms of predicting the military challenges that he has encountered with his own military. >> reporter: with the war now in its third month, no one's talking anymore about this ending quickly. russia's attempting to regroup with a new goal in mind in southeast ukraine. with u.s. and western support, ukraine is bracing for a long, brutal fight that the biden administration has framed as much bigger than about one country. a senior defense official says the russian forces are trying to learn from the mistakes they made early on in the invasion. mistakes we saw carried out multiple times around kyiv. but they have yet to determine if they'll be able to do so. they're still seeing some of the same logistics and sustainment problems, and one of the key issues that will be very hard to fix is the morale issues. a senior defense official says the russians conscripts come in very amped up for the fight. they have been, quote, feasting on russian propaganda, only to find out that the battle on the ground in ukraine is going very differently. oren liebermann, cnn, at the pentagon. well, let's talk about what's happening on the battlefield. a senior analyst at the australian institute joins us from canberra. great to have you on the show. let me get your reaction first of all to that missile attack we saw in kyiv. is this a message that the capital is not safe or a message to u.n. and nato given that the u.n. secretary-general was here when it happened? >> look, i think it's both. i think that the russians have been continuing their missile and air strikes across the length and breadth of ukraine even as their main focus is on the donbas region in the east. so it is a message to the zelenskyy government that, you know, essentially moscow is saying, we can continue to hit you and inflict damage and death and destruction. it's also a message, i think, to the u.n. and also, in particular, the west, nato, and the united states, demonstrating russian determination that they're not going to back down just because their forces on the ground have taken a pounding and a bloody nose. so there is a real risk here that this conflict could escalate. >> and you heard in that report, and we've been hearing in the last few hours from officials that the russians are making slow and uneven progress, advancing something like a few kilometers per day. what does this tell you, malcolm, about their advance and their objectives and whether that may have changed their objectives here? >> i think they're being far more cautious. if you look at the first phase of the war, they were quite reckless, and their use of their military forces was against essentially their approach to combined operations, and they paid the price for that in terms of very heavy losses, poor morale, shattered logistics. now they are being far more cautious and careful. they're making slow, incremental progress. if they feel that this is a war that's going to go on for a prolonged period, i.e., months, then they can afford to do that. the challenge for the russians is, of course, their morale and their logistics. can they sustain their forces to a level that enables this em to fight for a long period or will that shatter and their forces are pushed back into retreat? this is where i do think you're seeing any gains they tend to make can be kwquickly pushed ba by ukrainian forces. so it's a slugfest on that donbas campaign. >> yeah, and we have been seeing very much exactly that, the push and pull. i want to ask my producer to bring up the map again of that offensive that we're seeing in the east because we have been seeing, like you pointed out, malcolm, a real precarious battlefield situation as they attempt, of course, to cut off ukrainian forces in the east. as we look at this map in particular to get a sense of where that push is coming from, what is the immediate kind of threat for the ukrainian forces, malcolm, here as we look at the east of the country? >> well, i can't see the map from here, but i can visualize it in my mind, and essentially the problem the ukrainians face is that their forward forces are trapped in a pocket of advanced forces that are increasingly surrounded on both sides by russian forces. if the russians can extend their attacks from the north to the south and from the south to the north, they can cut off that salient and trap those ukrainian forces, isolate them, wear them down, and ultimately defeat them. that would then constitute a significant victory for the russians in the east. it would see a significant loss of capability for the ukrainians. if they could do that by may 9th, then would give putin some sort of tactical victory that he could proclaim. but ultimately, the challenge then for the russians is sustaining the momentum they would gain from that victory because as i said, their morale is poor. their supplies and their logistics are poor. and it's the question of whether they can sustain momentum at the tactical and operational level even if they achieve that victory. >> you do not need the map, malcolm. you visualize it already. on that point that you just made, let's talk about the $33 billion aid package from the u.s. that would include weapons, armored vehicles, et cetera. how much of an impact will this have on the fight, do you think? >> i think it will be really important because it's $33 billion you don't spend in a week. this is for a prolonged fight lasting months. and basically what the americans are saying to the russians is, we are not going to allow your implicit nuclear threats that putin made the other day in terms of talking about a lightning response -- we are not going to allow those nuclear threats to coerce us into not supporting the ukrainian government. so i think this ties in with the secretary of defense's comments that russia needs to be permanently weakened. i think the americans are in this fight for the long haul. they're not in it directly. they're trying to avoid that. but it is about defeating the russians in ukraine and making sure they're permanently weakened. and the way to do that is to give the ukrainians the necessary tools to defeat the russians decisively. that's heavy weapons. it's armor. it's armored fighting vehicles. it's tanks and artillery. >> yes, very much what we heard from secretary of defense lloyd austin. malcolm davis, always great to get your insight. really appreciate it. thanks, malcolm. >> thank you. now, a former u.s. marine is one of the latest victims on the battlefield in ukraine. according to his family, willie joseph can sell was killed fighting alongside ukrainian forces on monday. the 22-year-old was sent to ukraine by a private military contracting company that he worked for. cancel's mother says he went to ukraine because he believed in its cause. she also says her son's remains have not yet been recovered. he leaves behind a wife and a 7-month-old baby. just so much absolute tragedy that we're hearing here in ukraine from so many people. it's truly heartbreaking. we'll bring you the very latest, of course, on the battlefield, all the developments after a very short break. in the meantime, i want to send it back to my colleague, michael, in atlanta. >> isa, appreciate that. we'll check in with you a bit later. isa soares there. well, after russia capped natural gas delivery to poland and bulgaria on wednesday, two key european nations are working to get the energy supplies they need without violating international sanctions. and he was the senior official at a powerful russian bank, but he quit after vladimir putin sent his army into his homeland. the story after the break. i've been putting g people into spaces for years. millions of people into millions of spaces.s. and thatat must be why apartments.com is the center r of the rental universe. tippy tippy toe. tippy tippy toe. that's a big turkey! wait a minute. wait a minute. there's one going up now! how many of these guys are there? apartments-dot-com. the place to find a place. are you haunted by your cable 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>> those people who have spoken have restricted themselves to very benign statements about regretting the loss of life in ukraine. but clearly fearful about what can happen to them. so it would, i think, take many more brave people to stand up and express their positions. >> reporter: volobuev says that he intends to sign up for ukraine's army, but for now he could be more useful to intelligence networks says this analyst at chatham house. >> his value is going to be to particularly western intelligence services that will want to debrief him about the functioning of gazprombank, the extent to which its leadership is still connected with the kremlin. >> reporter: volobuev's personal protest is a risky one, yet even he believes it's unlikely to change the course of the war in ukraine yet. >> translator: he's gone so far, he has no exit route. he's covered in blood, and the economy won't stop him. he will go all the way. the only thing that can stop him is regime change or his own death. >> reporter: nina dos santos, cnn, in london. historians and military officials are pondering how much longer the war in ukraine could last. next up, i'll talk to an expert who doesn't see a quick end in sight and believes time might be on russia's side. we'll be right back. if i go to sleep right now, i will get four... hours and eighteen minutes. so great. taha, that's funny. it's messing witme now. i know exactly what it's doing. ok. ok. waxed. natural. sensitive. new dove ultimate antiperspirant. our unique water based formula and 6x more glycerin. helps restore skin to its best condition. new dove ultimate. with angi, you can connect with and see ratings and reviews. and when you book and pay throug you're covered by our happiness check out angi.com today. angi... and done. allergies don't have to be scary. spraying flonase daily stops your body from overreacting to allergens all season long. psst! psst! flonase all good. under district attorney gascón, i prosecuted car break-ins. all repeat offenders, often in organized crime rings. but when chesa boudin took office, he dissolved the unit and stopped me from collaborating with the police on my cases. now home and car break-ins are on the rise because repeat offenders know they can get away with it. chesa boudin is failing to do his job. there's a better way to keep san francisco safe. recall chesa boudin now. now, the u.s. president is asking congress to approve more than $30 billion in new aid for ukraine. joe biden admitting his words, the cost of the fight is not cheap. but he says, quote, caving to russian aggression is going to be more costly. mj lee explains what the aid package entails. >> reporter: president biden is asking congress to approve $33 billion in supplemental funding for ukraine. here's how that price tag breaks down. some $20 billion in military and security assistance. another $8.5 billion in economic assistance. and then another $3 billion in humanitarian assistance. and in terms of what this money would actually translate to, a lot of it would be weapons and equipment that the ukrainians have said they so badly need more of, like artillery, armored vehicles, and anti-armor systems. and then we're also talking about food, money, and medicine, the sort of day-to-day necessity things that the ukrainian people need as they try to survive out this war. now, this is money that u.s. officials say should last the ukrainians around five months. just another stark reminder both this price tag as well as the five-month time frame, that u.s. officials are currently planning for this conflict to be a long-term conflict. mj lee, cnn, the white house. more than two months of fighting, thousands of lives lost, and no end in sight. that's where things stand in ukraine right now, not to mention the horrific devastation across much of the country, which all raises the question, how much longer could this war last? nato's secretary-general said on thursday the alliance should be in it for the long haul. >> we need to be prepared for the long term. it's a very unpredictable and fragile situation in ukraine, but there's absolutely the possibility that this war will drag on and last for months and years. >> now, for more, i'm joined by liana fix, a program director and expert on russia at the kerber foundation. she's joining me from berlin. thanks for being up early for us. an important issue. at the moment, after nearly two months, neither side has what it wants, of course. you could wroe a fascinating article about the chances of a protracted conflict. what are the risks of that, and how might a long war benefit vladimir putin? >> yeah, there's a real risk that russia now tries to stay in the east and in the south of the country and thereby to prolong the war. my colleague and i, we argue that actually prolonging the war might well be in russia's interest because it would prevent a humiliating defeat, and the longer the war continues, russia would have the opportunity to regroup its forces to get some new conscripts in. on the other hand, for ukraine a prolonged war would be devastating for the country and for western supporters of ukraine, this would mean that military support and western military equipment, would have to continue for months and years. and this would be a very costly although necessary support. >> many believe, of course, that putin's aim goes much further than ukraine, that he wants to reconstitute a greater russia, if you like, that he regrets the loss of the soviet union. next could be moldova, perhaps georgia, then even threatening nato countries. does dragging this out play into that putin mind-set of his broader goals? >> it would be costly for russia, that is clear. so engaging in multiple theaters could be difficult at the same time. but as long as russia stays in ukraine and keeps up the threats that it can at any time expand its campaign, continue to bomb also the western part of ukraine, this is also a signal to other countries in the region to say, well, look, is this how you see your future? so it puts other countries under constant pressure and a constant threat scenario as long as russia stays in ukraine and keeps this war going for a longer period of time. >> and to that point, is there a risk with a protracted conflict that the west, those countries supporting and arming ukraine right now, could in a way lose interest if the conflict stays within ukraine? is it fair to say that, you know, that support at current levels probably has a use-by date? >> i do think this is a major concern, and in an article in "time" magazine, president zelenskyy himself said that flagging world attention is more concerning to him than russian bombs. and we've seen in the past how the syria war, after some initial outrage, how western society to some extent got used to those atrocities and to those terrible images. and the concern is that this could also happen in ukraine, that western societies are just not used to a prolonged war in contrast to russian society, which has become a wartime society mobilized through propaganda. it's good that it's not the way western societies are, but it makes it much more difficult to sustain attention and to sustain support, especially if we come into an economic recession in europe. >> fascinating. i mean you've been analyzing this invasion from the start, and we've spoken more than once. you know, what a putin victory might look like, what a putin loss might look like. but throughout all of that research, are you any closer to understanding why he did this in the first place? an unprovoked nation of a sovereign nation with all the costs. you know, russia is a pariah. the economy is going to be devastated. his military has failed, which has exposed those failings. nato is strengthened. at what point are the costs too high for him? >> i think the longer the war continues, the clearer it becomes that this same kind of cost/benefit analysis that you just did and we all do does not apply to putin's and the kremlin's thinking. so it's not about this analysis, you know, what's on the one side, what's on the other side, but ideology is a much stronger factor than we initially expected. and this ideology, this radicalization of the russian president, that he is on a historic mission that he wants to fulfill about the, as he called it, the heroical unity of ukrainians and russians, this can be a very powerful driver even if the costs are piling up. and the russian president does not have the same kind of accountability to his own population as western leaders have. he can basically use all the resources, and he can proclaim victory at any time that he wants. so this is very much about ideology rather than about rational goals or policy decisions that are made here, and this makes it a little bit easier to explain why and how this all happened. >> and it makes it harder to fight. a very good point. great analysis as always. dr. liana fix, thanks so much. >> thank you. we'll take a quick break. when we come back on "cnn newsroom," the latest on china's covid surge. a live report from beijing after the break. 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shanghai. >> reporter: that's right, michael. but, you know, 15,000 cases in a country that still insists on sticking to this zero-covid policy means 180 million people -- that's cnn's latest calculation -- have been living under some forms of lockdown across china, not just in beijing in shanghai, involving more than two dozen cities. that's the scale of lockdown in this country we're talking about. that's half of the entire u.s. population. many of the people in smaller cities really have been living like this for months with very little outside attention and no end in sight. but here in beijing, you know, many parents like myself on thursday received that much dreaded note about school closure in many of the cities. but today on friday, they actually have closed all schools although the authorities not billing this as a citywide school closure. instead they say they're giving everyone an extra day off ahead of the may day holiday. they're still not ruling out opening campuses after the holiday on may 5th, but i think a lot of people aren't holding their breath right now, especially with a growing number of major hospitals also being shut down. all of that really a very ominous sign even though the official tally only some 200 cases in the capital so far in this latest outbreak out of its 20-plus million residents. and most of us, of course, have already gone through three rounds of mandatory covid tests as well so far this week. already we notice the streets here seem to be less congested even during rush hours. one reason for that could be many commuters who live outside beijing jurisdictions have been literally locked out, including this one town locking down its entire population of 1 million because of a single case. back here in beijing, we're still mostly free to move about, but the authorities have also been expanding their targeted lockdown of neighborhoods with confirmed cases. now, most shops still seem to be open, and supplies seem to be ample at this point. but i think people have been stocking up, being constantly reminded by their friends and family in shanghai that things could change at any moment and officials' promises and reassurances don't mean much anymore after the fiasco in shanghai. michael. >> it's just extraordinary reactions to the numbers of cases compared to the population. steven, really appreciate the reporting. thanks so much for that. steven jiang in beijing. now, shanghai's strict covid lockdown could come at a heavy economic cost. cnn's kristie lu stout on that. >> reporter: it's china's biggest and most affluent city, and the streets have been empty for weeks. shanghai is battling its worst ever covid-19 outbreak, determined to crush it with its zero-covid policy. it comes at the a steep cost to its economy and has implications for the word. >> we're forecasting that the lockdown in shanghai will rock china's economy. shanghai is an economic powerhouse for china. it holds one of the two stock exchanges. shanghai's port accounts for something like 3% of global through-put at any given time. >> reporter: shanghai is home to the world's busiest container port. it remains operational, but according to logistics platform project 44, on april 18th, some ships have been diverted away due to truck shortages, but the containers are piling up at the port, waiting on average for 12 days before they're picked up and delivered compared to just over four days in late march. shanghai is also a major aviation hub, but the outbreak has forced the suspension of many flights, causing air freight rates to skyrocket. all of this is putting even more pressure on global supply chains. >> this is having a supply shock. a lot of these shipments now can't leave the ports, can't leave the airports in shanghai, and these are goods which are ultimately going to europe and the u.s. it's going to push prices up. we're going to see more inflationary pressure. >> reporter: the zero-covid strategy has also forced many factories in shanghai to suspend operations. the apple supplier pegatron has suspended production at its shanghai plant and volkswagen and tesla's factories have been shut for weeks. production as resumed at tesla with elon musk saying this, tesla shanghai is coming back with a vengeance. but the company warned it too is not immune from supply chain problems. >> authorities in shanghai are trying to get essential production plants open under what they call a closed-loop system. that means that their staff actually sleep on the premises, on the factory floors, eat there, don't leave them, don't go home. but the problem is there's a lot of staff who don't want to do that and there's a shortage of parts to get these factories reopened. so it's going to be a global problem. >> reporter: an analyst warns that the economic pain caused by the zero covid strategy could spiral out of control, saying this, quote, implementing the strategy in an excessive manner by itself could lead to disruption on the supply chain, mass unemployment, and then could translate into social, political instability, exactly what the zero-covid strategy wants to avoid, unquote. and yet shanghai's weeks-long lockdown still has no end in sight. the bottom line from china watchers to the world, brace yourselves for the fallout. kristie lu stout, cnn, hong kong. apple hit a record profit in sales in the last quarter, but it's not celebrating. the tech giant shared a grim outlook on thursday. the lockdown in china contributing to the problems apple executives anticipate, including production problems in the world's most populist country. a dent in sales due to the war in ukraine and questionable demand. halting sales in russia hurt the company's bottom line even more. now, moderna is seeking an emergency use authorization from u.s. drug regulators. this would be for its covid vaccine for children age 6 months to 5 years. in late march, moderna announced the results of clinical trials mostly collected 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thursday night. >> the jacksonville jaguars select trayvon walker, georgia. >> university of georgia, defensive end, travon walker, was this year's first pick in the nfl players draft. he led them to a national championship. go, dogs. the nfl broadcast has been a spectacle, to watch for the future stars. the detroit lions picked aidan hutc hutchison. and for the houston texans, stingley, two and three at the draft. on sunday, the afghan women's national football team will play its first home game since fleeing afghanistan. the game will be in australia, as the players take part in a new league. cnn sports don rydel, caught up with the players and asked about their bittersweet beginning. >> reporter: when the taliban took over their country last august, these players had to burn their old shirts and conceal their identities in order to flee the country. back then, they had no idea what the future would hold. >> we went through so many challenges on that day, that we were in airport. it was a matter of life and death. so, you didn't know you would be alive or not. >> reporter: details about their dramatic escape are still e emerging. and there was no guarantee they would make it. >> one of the people say, hey, there is an afghanistan woman pl player. that was a hard day for all of us. >> reporter: the players' evacuation was the result of a frantic but coordinated international effort. haley, was recently reunited with the team and coached the players, and used her connections as a former marine to facilitate their escape. it was fraught with danger, a danger realized when a suicide bomber killed around 180 people, including u.s. servicemen and women. >> we got a flight out 48 hours before that happened. i struggle when i think about it. and i hope that their families can appreciate that those marines were involved in getting these young women to safety. i know for a fact they were. several of the individuals were. >> reporter: it is a bittersweet moment in so many ways. the captain of the team chokes up when i ask her to recall the moment her transport plane was airborne because they were leaving so much behind. >> your dreams. you're losing your dreams in a blink. that was the thing that happened in afghanistan, not just for me, but for so many girls and so many women. >> reporter: many are in australia. and with the help of the m melbourne football club, they have started new lives. this was their first game. >> i think football has a responsibility to sup sport its participants, and show the best in humanity and the best in people. people who were at the game because they loved it, it gave them a sense of empowerment, confidence, and self-esteem. and they deserve whatever the game can offer them. >> reporter: not all of the players got out of afghanistan and others had to leave family behind. and for all of their story that has positive elements, it is undoubtedly complicated. they tried to find jobs to support themselves and their families back home and tried to continue their education while playing football twice a week. desperate circumstances have forced them to start over. but the bonds that united them before are now even stronger. >> afghanistan's national team, plays for every person. they represent the women of afghanistan. they are a reminder to women everywhere, that we collectively can do anything we put our minds to. we are stronger than others may think. >> reporter: it remains to be seen if fifa will allow this team to play football under the name and the flag of their home country. because of the taliban's stance of getting women to play sports, this will be the only afghanistan team in the world. the only thing that truly matters is that they are safe. >> i never felt it before when i was in afghanistan. i was afraid. so many things. about about security, about family, about anything else. it is something i found here. >> here, they accept all kinds of people. they don't ask, oh, are you muslim? are you christian or anything else? that's such a good thing. australians are kind people. i love them. >> thanks for spendi ing part o your day with me. i'm michael holmes. follow me on instagram and twitter. i'll be back with more breaking news coverage after the break. before discocovering nexium 2r to treat her frequent heartburn.n... claire could only imagine enjoying chocolate cake. now, she can have her cake and eat it too. before it starts for all-day, all-night protection cayou imagine 24 hours without heartburn? allergies don't have to be scary. spraying flonase daily stops your body from overreacting to allergens all season long. psst! psst! flonase all good. this is the planning effect. nina's got a lot of ideas for the future... a lot of ideas. so when she wants a plan based on what matters most, she turns to fidelity. at fidelity, anyone can create a free plan. a plan that can change as your priorities do. and nina's free plan? it leaves her free to focus on what's important 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