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time tomorrow. also new today, sources tell cnn russia is warning the u.s. that its ongoing weapons shipments to ukraine may lead to unpredictable consequences. adding to concerns about russian retaliation, moscow's threat to intensify strikes on kyiv. overnight, just outside the capital, russia says its sea-launched missile struck a military facility that produced antiaircraft missile systems and anti-ship missiles. this morning ukraine said russia for the first time used long-range bombers to strike mariupol. that, of course, is the port city which has been under siege for weeks now. an estimated 100,000 civilians or more still trapped there. a senior u.s. defense official concedes the city is in a, quote, dire position. we want to begin with a cnn exclusive. just a short time ago, my colleague jake tapperity issing down with ukrainian president volodymyr zelenskyy in kyiv. jake joining us from the capital city there. jake, great to see you. what did you hear from president zelenskyy this afternoon? >> well, we had a wide-ranging interview on a number of topics. one of the first things i asked him, though, had to do with something that the cia director bill burns warned about yesterday. burns said that they were keeping an eye on the possibility that vladimir putin in an act borne of desperation might use a tactical or low-yield nuclear weapon against ukraine. so that, of course, was a question i had to ask the ukrainian president. >> the director of the cia warned that he's worried putin might use a tactical nuclear weapon in this fight. are you worried? >> not only me. i think all of the world, all the countries have to be worried because, you know that it can be not real information, but it can be the truth because when they begin to speak about one or another battles or involved enemies or nuclear weapons or some chemical issues, chemical weapons, they should do it. they could do it. they can. for them, life on the people is nothing. the truth, not be afraid. not be afraid. be ready, but that is not a question to ukraine. and not only for ukraine. for all the world. i think so. >> so you heard zelenskyy there speaking in english. it was one of the few answers he gave in english so obviously wanted the english-speaking world to hear it. most of the interview he spoke in ukrainian. in that excerpt he was talking about, a, it should not just be ukraine that's worried about putin using nuclear weapon possibly. it's the whole world that should be. we're not afraid. we're ready. and also just the idea that when it comes to vladimir putin's human life, especially ukrainian lives mean so little to him he'd put nothing past him, erica. >> interesting to hear him say that as well. i'm sure, jake, you also asked him about the sinking of the "moskva." these denials from russia that it was a ukrainian missile strike. what did he have to say about that? >> it was interesting. he was pretty cagey about that. he did say that the ship does not exist anymore and the fact that it sank is not a tragedy for the ukrainians. in terms of whether it was ukraine that shot it and sank it or it happened another way, he said that is for history to judge, which i thought was an interesting question. especially given the fact that i believe the pentagon just confirmed that they think the ship was taken out by two neptune missiles. ukrainian missiles. so not taking credit for it, but also not embarrassed about it and very -- and obviously very pleased that the ship is now at the bottom of the black sea. >> almost reminds you of the statement from ukraine when that facility was stuck in russia. we have seen so much of volodymyr zelenskyy over these, what, we're now day 51 of this war. i am not convinced that this man has slept at all. i mean, how do you think, being there with him in person, witnessing how he's holding up physically, how the people around him are, is there a way, based on what you saw and the way he reacted to you, that i think you could describe where you think he may be at? even his mood for lack of a better word? >> i'm kind of a subscriber of the great man or great person theory that sometimes there are just individuals thrust into a position of power at a given time that rise to the moment. that's just kind of the way i look at history. and i think he is one of these people. he was very impressive. he came in. he's not a tall guy. but he looked fit and he looked as well rested as he could look, i suppose. probably better rested than me. and -- not that he is but he looked it. and that, you know, he showed a variety of moods. at the very beginning before we started we were both joking about how our teenage daughters have little regard for either one of us. and then a different part of the interview, he was diplomatic. he was defiant. he was strong. he was emotional when we talked about civilian casualties. he was candid. we talked about whether or not he knew how many ukrainians had been killed, civilians. and he gave a number for the number of ukrainian military deaths but not for that of civilian deaths. he was honest about the fact that they really have no way of knowing at this point. so he was pretty impressive. you know, people like us, erica, we interview politicians for a living. probably aren't a lot of them that impress us a lot just because we deal with them all the time. he was a pretty impressive guy. >> i look forward to seeing more of your interview, jake. it's been great reporting over the last couple of weeks. thank you. you can see much more of jake's interview this afternoon coming up on "the lead" right here on cnn. 4:00 eastern. the full interview runs this sunday, 9:00 a.m. eastern on "state of the union." so on the ground in ukraine, ukraine reporting heavy russian shelling along the front line in the donetsk region. ben wedeman is in southeastern ukraine joining us now with the very latest. ben, what can you tell us? >> yes, erica. well, by all accounts, it appears the russians are continuing to amass forces in this region, the donbas, in preparation for this offensive. now yesterday we were in a town which is the easternmost town under ukrainian government control. and we understand that basically the northern suburbs, there is a concentration, a new concentration of russian troops, armor and artillery. across the region, we also understand that many of the forces that were in north central ukraine around kyiv are being transferred or have already been transferred to the northern part of the donbas region. so all indications are that preparations are well under way. we've heard ukrainian officials say that the russian offensive is a matter of days, not weeks. so it does appear that that's coming. now we also understand as far as the situation in mariupol is concerned on the sea of azov, that's been besieged for more than 40 days, a medieval city is the only way to describe it. the two units of the ukrainian defenders in the ever-shrinking area they control within the city have managed to join up. now in the past, recently the russians have claimed to have gained control of the port city, but then they report that they bombed it. so it's not clear how much longer the defenders can hold out, but they've certainly held out under the most hellish of circumstances. erica? >> yeah, that's for sure. ben wedeman, appreciate it. thank you. we are also following today a warning from russia to the united states. the kremlin today formally protesting the weapons president biden has been sending ukraine. joining me, retired u.s. army major mike lyons and shawn turner, also former director of communication for u.s. national intelligence. it's great to have both of you with us. shawn, what is your read here on this warning from russia to the u.s., warning about the potential consequences and how, if at all, do you think the u.s. should respond? >> yeah, you know, thanks for having me. this warning really got my attention. look, i think that for the united states, we have done a good job of making sure that when it comes to the perception of escalating or showing any aggression as it relates to this conflict, the u.s. has done a good job of staying out of that space. but, look, these diplomatic notes are typically have subtleties and overt warnings. the subtleties are often more important. what's happening behind the scenes is i guarantee there are foreign policy officials at the state department and others throughout the u.s. government who are looking at this note and they are looking at those words. unpredictable consequences. and they are going over the range of possibilities with regard to what those words could mean. and to be really clear, as they think about those johconsequenc it could be empty words that mean nothing up to the idea that putin may be sending a shot cross the bow with regard to his future intent. and the last thing i'll say about this is, as it relates to the specific words here, the united states is going to look at this and we'll go back to russia and be very clear with russia that if these words are designed to make a case for the united states being so aggressive as to be drawn into this war that that is not what the united states intends to do, that we're going to continue to support and help ukraine any way we can. >> so there's one way of looking at it and reading into each of those words, as you point out, shawn. major lyons, does this, you know, this warning, does this also tell you something about how russia is looking at this conflict, at this invasion that it started and the weapons and the help that the u.s. is sending are those being seen as effective and concerning? >> i think so. i think the fact that it has been effective. the weapons and the supplies have poured in from the west. look at this latest list of things we're going to provide. they are real differencemakers. the body armor, small arms, javelins, the drone technology and intel that it provides is invaluable to ukraine. so the unthinkable consequences. perhaps what russia hasn't done is attack those supply convoys as they've crossed the border. that has me most concerned. you look at things we are going to bring in, armored personnel carriers, how does that cross the border? there's no hiding that. russian can see that from their technology and likely attack that very quickly in very far western ukraine. so perhaps that's what he does there. the issue, getting the lift capability to get that to poland and our allies there and then getting it across the border into ukraine's hands because they've been tremendous with it. >> as we look at what are these potential consequences in this warning from russia, president zelenskyy, as you just heard, telling jake that he does believe that the world really needs to be prepared for putin to use some sort of nuclear weapon. cia director bill burns warning that putin may resort to tactical nuclear weapons or low-yield nuclear weapons. and there's not enough practical evidence to believe this, but how is that, shawn, how do officials gauge that threat? >> yeah, i think that this is one of those cases in which gauging the threat is less important than the need to send a message. look, sometimes we talk about tactical nukes, low-yield nukes. the united states needs to send a really clear message that no matter how we describe the nuclear weapon, on the battlefield in ukraine, there is absolutely no place for nuclear weapons. and so i think that when we look at those words, unpredictable consequences and what intelligence tells us about how frustrated putin is, just to be really clear, he is running out of patience here. i think that we look at simply the threat of the use of any type of nuclear weapon and that we're very clear that whether it's a tactical nuke or low-yield nuke or any other type of weapon that not only will the united states respond decisively but the international community will respond decisively. this is a message that we need to start sending more clearly and more directly because putin is -- his back is against the wall. we just simply don't know what he's going to do next. >> it will be interesting if that message is, in fact, amplified, if it does become louder. before i let you both go. in terms of putin being backed against the wall. he does not like to be put in a corner. a lot of concerns about what that means for his impulses and the next action he could take. when we look at what happened with the ship, with the "moskva," do you think this -- is this more concerning? is this more of an issue for russia when it comes to morale and reputation, if you will? or is it more about russia's strategy in this invasion? >> no, it's more morale. the propaganda used from ukraine's side is tremendous and he's got messaging problems, putin does, as it faces off to russia with this. i think it's going to have little impact. frankly he has the baltic fleet -- or black sea fleet. a tremendous amount of military capability there. it will degrade somewhat but the embarrassment of losing that ship is tremendous. and he has to watch out for what message gets sent to russia as opposed to what happens in the theater. >> major michael lyons and shawn turner, appreciate your expertise. thank you. it is the world's largest megayacht which is really saying something. this one comes complete with an indoor pool. not one, but two helipads and germany just seized it from an russian oligarch's family. up next, an update on the worldwide effort to hit putin's powerful friends where it hurts. plus, the text messages from two trump allies in congress which reveal how they initially supported efforts to overturn the election before ultimately warning the white house against it. allergies don't have to o be scary. spraying flonase daily stops your b body from overreacting to allergens all seasonon long. psst! psst! flonase all good. it's still the eat fresh refresh, and subway's refreshing their app. so you can customize your favorite footlong, set a pickup time, and jump the line! oh, here she goe ugh, i thought she was actually gonna jump. just use this code and order on the subway app! 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>> well, i'm not sure what you're in the market for, but besides yachts, we've got private jets, villas and other assets seized. check out this real estate compound seized by italian authorities in sar de nia. it's dubbed rocky ram. and it's worth about $114 million. the massive property is linked to nikita mazepin, a formula formula 1 driver and his oligarch father who was described as part of the inner circle of vladimir putin. various european authorities have also seized other assets linked to russian oligarchs. a belgian has frozen $3 billion in russian assets from 877 individuals. another $6 billion has been frozen by switzerland which, after the war started, broke from its traditional neutrality to conform with eu sanctions. >> you know, i know you were joking when you said i don't know what you're in the market for. in all seriousness, though, what happens to this real estate, these boats, these planes? is it just held on to the governments for the time being? a chance it could be returned or does it ultimately get sold? >> that's the tricky part because -- especial ply when yo think about the yachts. once they get seized, it's really up to the government to keep them in good condition or they'll lose value. as you mentioned, upkeep for some of these yachts can be in the tens of millions of dollars a year because they're constantly exposed to the elements. that includes insurance coverage and hiring workers to maintain the ships and their various indoor pools and helipads. now as far as whether the oligarchs are ever going to get them back, it's easy to see how some of this could end up tied in court battles that could last years. but some in congress are trying to take steps to ensure these temporarily seized assets get permanently reallocated. there's a bipartisan bill in congress. it's called yachts for ukraine. and it would allow the government to sell the assets and put the proceeds towards permanently trying to rebuild ukraine. >> we'll be watching to see what happens. matt egan, appreciate it. thank you. well, the goal of all of these unprecedented sanctions which target putin's allies is for that economic pain and perhaps their frustration to trickle up to the russian leader himself to further back him into a corner. but the question is, how long would that take? what would it look like? here to discuss, professor of political science at columbia university, timothy fry author of "the limits of power in putin's russia." putin's daughters also facing sanctions. how and when will we know if these efforts are having any real impact on putin and his decision-making? >> well, i think you can say they're having an impact already. a key role for the sanctions was to degrade russia's military capacity. we see the largest tank factory in the country has been considerably slowed because they can't get the microchips to produce the tanks that are so important to the war effort. so in degrading russia's military capacity, that's an important agenda. you know, the russian oligarchs who are feeling tremendous pain from these sanctions, i would -- they didn't sign up to be the face of an international pariah state, and i'm sure they're not very happy about the start of the war. but given where they are, they're reluctant to support any efforts to criticize putin for fear that they will be even worse off, and, you know, be thrown in jail and lose their assets thanks to the russian government. so there's a lot of under-the-radar opposition to the war among russian economic elites. but it's just very difficult to express that. >> how much of that do you think is getting through? how much of that is making its way up to the top? to putin? we've been talking more and more about, is he feeling humiliated by what he is seeing or not seeing in terms of this invasion? the m"moskva," the latest exampe of that? >> the biggest frustrations have come on the battlefield where i'm sure they expected president zelenskyy to fold for the army of ukraine not to fight back. i'm sure he's frustrated by the western response which has been much more vigorous than anybody expected. domestically, i bet he's disappointed because there's been nothing like the surge of enthusiasm that happened after the annexation of crimea. i tend to categorize support for the war effort in russia at the moment as fairly broad, but also shallow in that this is not the most important issue for most russians, either elites or masses. and it's also quite conditional. as the economy deteriorates and should the losses on the battlefield increase dramatically, i do think we'll see much more expressions of opposition to the war effort. >> which is interesting because we know how hard putin and the russian government have tried to crack down on that from the very beginning. you note that the type of autocracy that we see in russia really faces two main threats. one being a coup and the other one being some sort of public revolt. are you seeing any evidence, since this invasion began, that the chances of either of these have increased? do you see either one of those playing out? >> well, the odds before this were very low. putin's main claim to, you know, to history was to have brought sta billity to russia and the invasion of ukraine has really thrown that to the wind. at the moment we haven't seen elites defecting in large enough scale. haven't seen mass mobilization on a large enough scale to really threaten putin. but we're still only six weeks into this war. the kremlin retains control of the narrative within the country. but over time, i think that's going to be much more difficult to retain. >> professor timothy frye, appreciate you taking the time to join us today. thank you. >> thank you very much. just ahead here, a cnn exclusive. our teams just reviewing text messages which reveal how far some top republicans pushed the white house to keep fighting the 2020 election results. all three. i like t that. scotts turf builder triple action. it's lawn season. let's get to the yard. cranky-pated: a bad mood related to a sluggish gut. miralax is different. it works naturally with the water in your body to unblock your gut. free your gut, and your mood will follow. psoriatic arthritis, made my joints stiff, sw. emerge tremfyant®. tremfya® is approved to help reduce joint symptoms in adults with active psoriatic arthritis. some patients even felt less fatigued. serious allergic reactions may occur. tremfya® may increase your risk of infections and lower your ability to fight them. tell your doctor if you have an infection or symptoms or if you had a vaccine or plan to. emerge tremfyant® with tremfya®. ask your doctor about tremfya® today. 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just ask your asthma specialist about dupixent. obviously, we got termites. well, first thing is, you gotta know what they're bitin' on. hey! i told you to hire a pro. i did get a pro. an orkin pro! i got this. got termites? don't call any pro, call the orkin pro. orkin. the best in pests. turning to politics now. a cnn exclusive. texts obtained by the january 6th committee and reviewed by cnn reveal how two republican lawmakers embraced, but then later warned against efforts to overturn the 2020 election. the messages were sent between gop senator mike lee, republican congressman chip roy and then-white house chief of staff mark meadows. cnn congressional correspondent ryan nobles joining us live from capitol hill. so walk us through these text messages, ryan, and what they reveal about the evolution for these two lawmakers when it came to overturning the election. >> it's an unbelievable amount of information that we learned about these conversations between these members of congress and mark meadows during that period of time after the election and before january 6th. and their arc is similar but there are subtle differences. let's first talk about chip roy. he's a fire-brand congressman from texas. a loyal supporter of donald trump's. and the texts show in the beginning he, too, believed there was something wrong with the election but wanted hard evidence. he texted on november 7th, we need ammo, fraud examples, we need it this weekend. he then said, we need substance where people are going to break. that was on the 19th. he is starting to be concerned that the evidence just isn't there. then on november 22nd, he says, frigin' rudy needs to hush. concerned about rudy giuliani's efforts to spearhead the trump legal challenges. by december 31st he was out. did not think the evidence was strong enough to continue these legal challenges. and he warned that the president should call everyone off. and then, of course, chip roy went to the floor of the house of representatives on january 6th, and he really did blame president trump for inciting the riot that happened here on january 6th. he also did not vote to object to the election results. >> that's going through we saw from chip roy. there's a similar arc here, but there are some differences. what was in those messages from senator lee? >> so the difference between roy and lee is that lee doesn't necessarily agree with the path that the trump legal team took to get to the point where they did on january 6th. he had a completely different idea. but he still pretty much held on to the idea that the election could be challenged right up until the very end. on november 7th, he says i want to offer words of encouragement to the president. then on november 9th, he endorses the ofefforts by sidne powell calling her a straight shooter. he quickly, though, decides he doesn't like the tact that sidney powell is taking. ten days later he said he was worried about the powell press conference. then he was looking for direction on november 22nd. he said to meadows, please tell me what i should be saying. but then on december 16th, he did not like the effort that some of his fellow senators were taking and he said, i think we're now past the point where we can expect anyone will do it without some direction. a strong evidentiary argument. and then finally on january 3rd, just three days before january 6th, he was concerned about the tactics that were taking place. he said, i only know this will end badly for the president unless we have the constitution on our side. we believe the attacks they were taking at that point were clearly going against the constitution. he, too, ultimately did not vote to object to the election results. >> so interesting to see that evolution. ryan nobles, appreciate it. when the wheat field becomes a battlefield. the war in ukraine is stoking a food crisis being felt around the world. we'll take a closer look. open talenti and raise the jar. to gelato made from scratch. raise the jar to all five layers. raise the jar to the besgelato... you've ever tast. talenti. raise the jar. inner voice (furniture maker): i'm constantly nodding... ...because i know everything about furniture ...but with the business side... ...i'm feeling a little lost. quickbooks can help. an easy way to get paid, pay your staff, and know where your business stands. new business? 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why are they focused on coming through that southern border? >> well, simply put, it's just easier for them to get to mexico. so, for example, if ukrainians want to come to the u.s. on a tourist visa, they have to prove they're going to go become to their origin country and that is, of course, very difficult to prove at this time. that is not the case, though, for mexico. what some ukrainians have opted to do is to go to that mexican border city of tijuana and approach the port of entry. and there, they can be paroled into the united states on a case-by-case basis. in fact, recently over the span of a week, some 3,000 ukrainians have come in through the u.s./mexico border. that according to the homeland security secretary alejandro mayorkas. all of this is against the backdrop of the u.s. committing to take up to 100,000 ukrainian refugees. now the administration says that is going to happen through a full range of legal pathways, but they have not provided all of the details of how that's going to happen. now two administration officials have told cnn that part of that will include a roll out of a parole program. and what that means is a way for ukrainians who are overseas to come to the u.s. in an expedited fashion. so that is what we expect to learn more about in the coming weeks. >> we'll be watching for more on that. appreciate it. thank you. russia's war on ukraine could have a devastating impact on global food security. we're already seeing it play out. developing countries already dealing with rising food prices. the war is now threatening, too, to turn the situation from a crisis into a catastrophe. here's cnn's david mckenzie. >> reporter: the intense work at the bakery in lagos used to be worth it. used to be profitable. >> precisely around the time of the bombing of ukraine. it affected the supply of wheat which has affected our items of our production. it's very expensive. the prices are changing constantly. >> reporter: now they can only afford to produce half of what they did and each time gets less dough. this war is horrifying for ukraine's people. it could be devastating for global food security. russia and ukraine are agricultural export powerhouses. on the field of battle, farmers will struggle to plant crops. with export ports blockaded by russian warships, it has pushed the prices even higher. so the ten hours miriam spends selling bread won't be enough to feed her two children. she says customers don't have the cash anymore. they often refuse to pay the going rate. and even on the fertile slopes of mount kenya, they are hurting. caroline had to slash her workforce. the cost of fertilizer for her tea and coffee plantations has doubled in recent months. >> you have no money to buy that fertilizer at that high cost. >> reporter: and russia is one of the biggest fertilizer producers. sanctions and trade disruptions are likely to push prices even higher. could this be any morse timed? >> the war is starting at one of the worst times. we were already thinking we are in a recovery mode. on top of that, there were already inflation pressures that were across the world. africans are spending a lot on fuel and spending a lot on food. in this current moment, this is a tough time for the continent. >> reporter: the impact of this conflict is coming on top of already soaring global grain prices. if you look at this map over here, of course issue countries across the world could feel the pain, but economists point to specific african countries like senegal which imports more than 50% of its wheat from ukraine and russia. and somalia, which imports more than 90%. and in somalia, already suffering from generational drought, hundreds of thousands of children, like 7-month-old arden, are hollowed out by hunger and sickness. if the rains fail again, the war in europe could push this crisis into a catastrophe, even into famine. aid agencies depend heavily on grain from ukraine. david mckenzie, cnn, london. of course you know about breathalyzers that can detect alcohol. did you know there's now one that can detect covid? 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