Transcripts For BBCNEWS Verified 20240702 : comparemela.com

Transcripts For BBCNEWS Verified 20240702



communications plan for coronavirus, thatis communications plan for coronavirus, that is what that reference was recording hancock and co. and also, as you know there is an e—mail from, on 25th february, i was saying where are all of these red teams, where is this testing and what not that hancock promised us existed, where are the documents and we at number ten were starting to get a feel for the absence of things and a feel for the absence of things and a feel for the fact that the first wave of all the fact that the first wave of all the communications plans. you say the communications plans. you say the system — the communications plans. you say the system didn't _ the communications plans. you say the system didn't push _ the communications plans. you say the system didn't push him - the communications plans. you say the system didn't push him to - the communications plans. you say| the system didn't push him to come back, didn't regard it as crisis, but, you were part of the system, why weren't you pushing for these things. why weren't you pushing for these thins. , . why weren't you pushing for these thinqs-_ for- why weren't you pushing for these things._ for him - why weren't you pushing for these things._ for him to l things. push fairing? for him to come back. _ things. push fairing? for him to come back, and _ things. push fairing? for him to come back, and take _ things. push fairing? for him to come back, and take a - things. push fairing? for him to come back, and take a grip - things. push fairing? for him to come back, and take a grip on l things. push fairing? for him to l come back, and take a grip on the crisis. i come back, and take a grip on the crisis. . , ., ., crisis. i have explained that, i regarded _ crisis. i have explained that, i regarded him _ crisis. i have explained that, i regarded him coming - crisis. i have explained that, i regarded him coming back - crisis. i have explained that, i regarded him coming back at| crisis. i have explained that, i. regarded him coming back at the crisis. i have explained that, i- regarded him coming back at the time when the system, so, the system was not pushing him to say this is a crisis, if he had come back on 15th february, he would have said what he had already been saying in the previous ten days which is this is all ball, it is swine flu, the real danger is the economy, etc, etc. that would have been to me, highly counter productive, given me and patrick and others were worried about it. it is a fine balances act. you can see the problems we had with the handshaking which happens roughly at time, where i tried to push him, on handshaking and it completely boomeranged, so we had to be very careful in how we handled this nightmare problem. you be very careful in how we handled this nightmare problem.— be very careful in how we handled this nightmare problem. you say that there was a step _ this nightmare problem. you say that there was a step change _ this nightmare problem. you say that there was a step change or— this nightmare problem. you say that there was a step change or rather- there was a step change or rather there was a step change or rather the system changed direction, in the first week in march. but the government published on 2nd march an coronavirus action plan contained delay, mitigate, which was described by mr warner in an e—mail to you and others it wasn't a plan, it was a communication framework. yes. you understood — communication framework. is; you understood perfectly well communication framework. 123 you understood perfectly well it wasn't much of a plan, it was a comes plan, if it was anything. —— comms plan, if it was anything. —— comms plan, if it was anything. —— comms plan, if it was anything. did you alert people to the fact that a plan for contained delay mitigate was likely to be of little—use, given containment had already failed? there was certainly at this time growing conversations, this time i, when this plan was published, as you refer to, when this plan was published, as you referto, ben when this plan was published, as you refer to, ben warner was immediately aston northern irished when he saw this document, other people in number ten similarly imran and others, and this contributed to our growing sense that hang on a second, we have been told that we are the best prepared in the world we have been told these things exist, this document is obviously pretty much a joke, what the hell is going on? so, yes, that the time, you know, there was a curve of the virus but a curve of alarm in the pm's office and els where in the system.— of alarm in the pm's office and els where in the system. where are the e-mails from _ where in the system. where are the e-mails from you — where in the system. where are the e-mails from you saying _ where in the system. where are the e-mails from you saying as - where in the system. where are the e-mails from you saying as the - where in the system. where are the | e-mails from you saying as the chief e—mails from you saying as the chief adviser of the prime minister, our sole and prime coronavirus action plan contained delay, mitigate is a joke? i plan contained delay, mitigate is a 'oke? ., �* ~ ., , . joke? i don't know if there was such e-mails. e—mails. during the course of that week, more and more evidence came to light, both of the spread of the virus in italy, which had increased five fold, more measures were proposed to combat the spread of covid in the lombardi and other northern provinces are. a and as you have described in your statement, mark warner and you debate on the 7th march your incipient concerns about plan a. on the 10th march, so a matter of days after your concern has started to emerge about the whole strategic direction of the government had embarked on, the civil contingencies secretariat prepared —— prepared a note, 49583, in which the director of the ccs stated in paragraph one, covid—19 looks increasingly likely to be a global pandemic although this is not yet fully certain. the note sets out the views of the c. cs as to the need to have fast track legislation to effectively manage the outbreak, it deals with excess death management, and the need for plans to be drawn up. did you or anybody else push back against this document, and say, it is absurd to believe that a covid—19 global pandemic is not yet fully certain. given the concerns you were beginning to have?— given the concerns you were bearinnin to have? , ., ., beginning to have? yes, throughout this 9th march — beginning to have? yes, throughout this 9th march is _ beginning to have? yes, throughout this 9th march is the _ beginning to have? yes, throughout this 9th march is the monday, - beginning to have? yes, throughout this 9th march is the monday, the l this 9th march is the monday, the throughout this week, as you say, having spoken to mark and others over the weekend, well, over the previous week, as you can see from multiple messages from this day on wards, i was very concerned and this document also was, was one of many documents that appeared at that time, that seemed to some of us in number ten make clear that the system was miles off the pace. because they no longer, they simply didn't reflect the change in thinking or the emerging understanding as to how far the virus had spread in the absence of means to control it. $1150 virus had spread in the absence of means to control it.— means to control it. also i think, i think a really _ means to control it. also i think, i think a really crucial— means to control it. also i think, i think a really crucial and - think a really crucial and underrated aspect is the speed, one of the things that is very striking looking back, preparing for this is... is... even in the week of, everyone when we go forward a week to the. ifer you go forward another week to the 23rd, the week of the lockdown, there is documents coming through from ccs and cobra and the cabinet office showing the crisis peaking in end of may, beginning of june. and i think this is critical to understand, the fact that was still on graphs in the week of 26th is genuinely astonishing in represent speblingt because it is completely false. what, a critical thing at this point on the 9th was, that partly because mark warner at this point, that had his data team eembed grd the nhs, and they were getting better data. we in number ten started to short circuit the cabinet office system and ccs because we were getting information directly from the nhs and we started to realise hang on, there is a fundamental mismatch between the shape of the curve that is coming out of the graphs coming from cobra and the cabinet office, peaking at the end of may/june and the information we are getting from the nhs which is showing that the crisis is almost upon us, so this was all, this was... increasingly alarming all the way through this, on 9th, i think it was, i asked imran, again, this was not supposed to be a job for spads, i said get in touch with see monday stephens office and get information from there to here, so that we can see what they are talking about. you can see chatter between warner and patrick on this. on this exact subject. it’s between warner and patrick on this. on this exact subject.— on this exact sub'ect. it's a very longance. h on this exact sub'ect. it's a very longance. r — on this exact sub'ect. it's a very longance, iwill— on this exact subject. it's a very longance, i will ask _ on this exact subject. it's a very longance, i will ask you - on this exact subject. it's a very longance, i will ask you about . on this exact subject. it's a very l longance, i will ask you about ben warner, he received an e—mailfrom professor neil ferguson on 10th march, in which professor ferguson asked him to show or to distribute to the prime minister and cabinet, documents relating to this surge demand and daily number of deaths that were likely. on 10th march, the cheltenham festival commenced. and on the same day, public health england data presented to sage the true number of cases in the united kingdom what was to be measured in the tens of thousand, professor ferguson challenged number ten officials that the sage meeting and asked them do you know what an epidemic with 4,000—6,000 deaths per day would feel like? what was the reaction in number ten when that informing was relayed back to you? well it contributed to our growing sense that something had gone horrifically wrong, in the communication between sage, dhsc and the cabinet office notjust about the cabinet office notjust about the scale of the problem but the speed of the problem.— the scale of the problem but the speed of the problem. request was from a reconsideration _ speed of the problem. request was from a reconsideration of _ speed of the problem. request was from a reconsideration of the - speed of the problem. request was i from a reconsideration of the wisdom of allowing mass gathering to continue. it of allowing mass gathering to continue. . . of allowing mass gathering to continue. .,, ,. ,, continue. it was discussed in the context of _ continue. it was discussed in the context of the _ continue. it was discussed in the context of the cheltenham - continue. it was discussed in the l context of the cheltenham event, continue. it was discussed in the - context of the cheltenham event, but again, the pm was advices at the time, that bannings a mass events would, what the pm was told at that time, was, if you ban mass events pm then people willjust goes to pubs instead, and that will be even worse. of course, now the obvious question is, why are they all going to pubs? but remember, there was no plan for lockdown, on 9th and 10th march, there was no plan for stopping these things so if you are not going to close pubs you can see the kind of twisted logic of don't stop things like cheltenham or football matches and everything else. fin football matches and everything else. " . football matches and everything else. " ., else. on 11th march, you sent a whatsapp _ else. on 11th march, you sent a whatsapp message, _ else. on 11th march, you sent a whatsapp message, 102697, i else. on 11th march, you sent a . whatsapp message, 102697, page else. on 11th march, you sent a - whatsapp message, 102697, page 17. where you say in the march, there was no plan for stopping these things so if you are not going to close pubs you can see the kind of twisted logic of don't stop things like cheltenham or football matches and everything else. on 11th march, you sent a whatsapp message, 102697, page 17. where you say in the mid of the page i "i think it is really important senior people understand and are able to discuss with prime minister this fundamental question. all sensible people can see the that geck triand how social distancing will be needed to flatten the curve, very sensible people, people are saying the risk of delay are higher than the risk of going too soon and you say further down the page, why wait five days, why not move now and flatten the curve earlier? yes. flatten the curve earlier? ". yes, was your— flatten the curve earlier? ". yes, was your appeal _ flatten the curve earlier? ". yes, was your appeal heard _ flatten the curve earlier? ". yes, was your appeal heard mr - flatten the curve earlier? 12: was your appeal heard mr cummings? no. ~ , ., was your appeal heard mr cummings? no. . , ., , was your appeal heard mr cummings? no. ~ , ., ,, it was your appeal heard mr cummings? no. ~ , ., ., itisa was your appeal heard mr cummings? no-_ it is a very— was your appeal heard mr cummings? no._ it is a very complex l no. why not snp it is a very complex ruestion, no. why not snp it is a very complex question. to — no. why not snp it is a very complex question, to which _ no. why not snp it is a very complex question, to which i _ no. why not snp it is a very complex question, to which i don't _ no. why not snp it is a very complex question, to which i don't have - no. why not snp it is a very complex question, to which i don't have a - question, to which i don't have a clear answer. question, to which i don't have a clearanswer. i question, to which i don't have a clear answer. i think, question, to which i don't have a clearanswer. ithink, i clear answer. i think, i think obvious question, to which i don't have a clearanswer. ithink, i clear answer. i think, i think obvious lip question, to which i don't have a clearanswer. ithink, i clear answer. i think, i think obvious lip at question, to which i don't have a clearanswer. ithink, i clear answer. i think, i think obvious lip at this question, to which i don't have a clearanswer. ithink, i clear answer. i think, i think obvious lip at this point, question, to which i don't have a clearanswer. ithink, i clear answer. i think, i think obvious lip at this point, sage people are still going on tv, saying well, the plan is herd immunity and it makes sense, so the fundamental plan a strategy was in place on the 11th. but they... there was also at this point, this, question, to which i don't have a clear answer. i think, ithink i don't have a clear answer. i think, i think obvious lip at this point, sage people are still going on tv, saying well, the plan is herd immunity and it makes sense, so the fundamental plan a strategy was in place on the 11th. but they... there was also at this point, this, this question, to which i don't have a clear answer. question, to which i don't have a clearanswer. i question, to which i don't have a clear answer. i think, question, to which i don't have a clearanswer. ithink, i question, to which i don't have a clear answer. i think, i think obvious lip at this point, sage people are still going on tv, saying well, the plan is herd immunity and it makes sense, so the fundamental plan a strategy was in place on the 11th. but they... there was also at this point, this, this concept of "behavioural fatigue", this point, this, this concept of "behaviouralfatigue", that this point, this, this concept of "behavioural fatigue", that people kept referring to. and i think is a really, really critical question. just pause there. on behavioural parliament tee, what was the genesis of this —— parliament fatigue, if you went too early people would struggle to sustain commitment. the pm and i struggle to sustain commitment. tt2 pm and i was told any struggle to sustain commitment. t't2 pm and i was told any this struggle to sustain commitment. tt2 pm and i was told any this week that it came from sage, however, obviously, since then, sage and spy b people have rushed to try and claim it was not me, not me, so, i don't think it is actually been, i don't think it is actually been, i don't know what the answer to this is, what i do know is that patrick —— patrick and chris talked about this concept in this week and this was another red flag for some of us in numberten, because was another red flag for some of us in number ten, because of course some of us had worked on political campaigns and we knew a lot of sufficient coming from behavioural scientists turned out to be dodgy science and docky concepts so we were worried about this, but, in that week —— dodgy concepts is, a critical meme that was being repeated this has to be done at the right time, this has to be done at the right time.— right time, this has to be done at the riaht time. ~ ~ the right time. when you say the pm was told and — the right time. when you say the pm was told and i _ the right time. when you say the pm was told and i was _ the right time. when you say the pm was told and i was told, _ the right time. when you say the pm was told and i was told, so _ the right time. when you say the pm was told and i was told, so we - the right time. when you say the pm was told and i was told, so we are i was told and i was told, so we are clear mr cummings, who told you that there was a problem with maintaining commitment? this there was a problem with maintaining commitment?— commitment? this was referred to by patrick and chris _ commitment? this was referred to by patrick and chris in _ commitment? this was referred to by patrick and chris in their _ commitment? this was referred to by patrick and chris in their briefings - patrick and chris in their briefings in, in the pm's office, they said this had come from sage. and of course they refired to it publicly in various documents. this course they refired to it publicly in various documents.— course they refired to it publicly in various documents. this was all intimately bound _ in various documents. this was all intimately bound up _ in various documents. this was all intimately bound up of _ in various documents. this was all intimately bound up of course - in various documents. this was all| intimately bound up of course with the understanding of herd immunity, one way strategy, you have to allow people to, you have to allow parts of the population to become infected, that will reduce the risk of an uncoiled second wave and soen and so forth, and at the same time this idea took hold that you couldn't go too soon because whatever measures were put in place were unsustainable. 50. whatever measures were put in place were unsustainable.— were unsustainable. so, they might be unsustainable _ were unsustainable. so, they might be unsustainable but _ were unsustainable. so, they might be unsustainable but b, _ were unsustainable. so, they might be unsustainable but b, the - be unsustainable but b, the fundamental distinction if you for a sinale in fundamental distinction if you for a single ing peak— fundamental distinction if you for a single ing peak strategy, they didn't want to go too soon, because that would actually suppress things and the thing would pop back up straightaway. indeed. fight! and the thing would pop back up straightaway. indeed.— and the thing would pop back up straightaway. indeed. and that is wh when straightaway. indeed. and that is why when you — straightaway. indeed. and that is why when you asked _ straightaway. indeed. and that is why when you asked if _ straightaway. indeed. and that is why when you asked if it - straightaway. indeed. and that is why when you asked if it was - straightaway. indeed. and that is why when you asked if it was my| why when you asked if it was my question properlianced, in the all caps here why not move now and flatten curve earlier, that is the logic of, if you are not going to do a single peak, if you are going to try and control it and suppress it now, then, the simple logic of exponential curves, the sooner you do it the better, but that was not what the, what the planning assumption was on the 11th. were you readily persuaded _ assumption was on the 11th. were you readily persuaded that _ assumption was on the 11th. were you readily persuaded that the _ assumption was on the 11th. were you readily persuaded that the herd - readily persuaded that the herd immunity approach, or rather the one wave strategy was the wrong way to go? tt wave strategy was the wrong way to 1 o? , wave strategy was the wrong way to o? , ., , ., , , wave strategy was the wrong way to no? ., _ ., wave strategy was the wrong way to go? it is obviously hard to reconstruct _ go? it is obviously hard to reconstruct psychology . go? it is obviously hard to - reconstruct psychology exactly, but i would say by this time, so certainly in the week of 9th, 10th, 11th, i had growing doubts on an hourly basis, by the 11th, i was pretty much in... so, by the 11th my view was, i have got an appalling feeling that i am being one of those like historic catastrophes likejuly 1914. i am not completely sure of it, but i have got some very smart people coming to me saying, this is, a fundamentally the strategy is wrong, misconceived, but also, at a practical level at this point, remember, i was sitting in an office and suddenly overhearing people having phone calls about whether local authorities could book out ice rinks and get trucks to carry massive numbers of bodies and store them in ice rinks these conversations suddenly placketsed in the week of the 9th so we had on the one hand, a fundamental argument, is the strategy misconceived or not p but we also had this growing cascade of nightmare conversations going on round us, when we realised that the system was just completely out of control, in terms of coping with its original plan a.— original plan a. could we have 173144 on _ original plan a. could we have 173144 on the _ original plan a. could we have 173144 on the screen, - original plan a. could we have 173144 on the screen, page . original plan a. could we have l 173144 on the screen, page one. mr hancock in a whatsapp message with damon poole dated 23rd may. says herd immunity was never the government strategy but it was what dom was pushing until he was persueded to drop it in early march, is that a fair apheasants. e —— persuaded. —— fair assess. is that a fair apheasants. e —— persuaded. —— fairassess. tt is persuaded. -- fair assess. it is obviously _ persuaded. -- fair assess. it is obviously laughable. _ obviously laughable. when did it become apparent that modelling may not have been necessary, in order to drive home the point that with the number of deaths and hospital cases that were the inevitable result of the infection fatality rate and the hospitalisation rate, the health care system would likely to be overwhelmed? 50. care system would likely to be overwhelmed?— care system would likely to be overwhelmed? ,, ., �* . ., overwhelmed? so, mark and ben warner raised this with — overwhelmed? so, mark and ben warner raised this with me _ overwhelmed? so, mark and ben warner raised this with me from _ overwhelmed? so, mark and ben warner raised this with me from a _ overwhelmed? so, mark and ben warner raised this with me from a week - raised this with me from a week before this point, of the tenth, 11th march, but when it really came home very starkly was, after, i asked i think on the monday, imran, but somehow between us imran and i asked the nhs to provide their data which for some odd reason hadn't come through, and there is references to that between warner and vallance, that data arrived and i asked to get simon stevens in to present it which i think happened on the 12th. th. everyone, all the records are a bit iffy on that date for reasons you are aware of. but when we saw this nhs documents, and mark warner explained the background of it, that is what really made things incredibly stark, because you had the two completely divergent sets of graph, one from the nhs and one from the cobra system. fin sets of graph, one from the nhs and one from the cobra system.- one from the cobra system. on the 11th march there _ one from the cobra system. on the 11th march there was _ one from the cobra system. on the 11th march there was a _ one from the cobra system. on the 11th march there was a cabinet - 11th march there was a cabinet meeting, 56132, at page four, the secretary of state for health and social care said this to cabinet. you can see about two thirds of the way down the page. without the systems of a dry cough and the it was hikely unlikely that someone was suffering from coronavirus. by the 11th march was it generally well understood in downing street that a large percentage, proportion of this disease for the viral spread in fact was transmitted asymptomatically? tt was. and mr hancock made this point in multiple ways, and sowed chaos but saying this, he was repeatedly told by patrick vallance what he was saying was wrong, he said it here, it makes its way into statements that have been provided to this inquiry, so this false meme, largeed etc in crucial people's minds. i don't ounce, never understood why he said this but patrick vallance made extremely clearly to mee me and to others in number ten what hancock was saying was factually wrong. fin was saying was factually wrong. on 12th march you messaged the prime minister, raising concerns, part of the message was put to mr cain earlier, 48313, page 22. you see there, the 12th march date, this is the reference to the need to chair daily meet information the cabinet roomf chair daily meet information the cabinet room f you go over the page, please, to page 23. the overwhelming danger here is being late and the nhs implodes like zombie apocalypse film. not being a week early. what did you mean by that? ., , ., , , that? so, it means the last message? yes. well, at— that? so, it means the last message? yes. well, at this _ that? so, it means the last message? yes. well, at this point, _ that? so, it means the last message? yes. well, at this point, we _ that? so, it means the last message? yes. well, at this point, we had - that? so, it means the last message? yes. well, at this point, we had got . yes. well, at this point, we had got the data i yes. well, at this point, we had got the data i had _ yes. well, at this point, we had got the data i had asked _ yes. well, at this point, we had got the data i had asked for _ yes. well, at this point, we had got the data i had asked for from - yes. well, at this point, we had got the data i had asked for from the i the data i had asked for from the nhs and we had seen these graphs, and it was clear, it made stark and not only the scale of the problem, but also, also two things, a, that the whole crisis was coming much, much faster than we had been told, and that the cabinet office understood and it was on the official graphs and secondly, to me, almost worse than this, was... like what on earth is going on? how can we be in a situation where the nhs has graphs showing we are days away from having to work out what to do stop this nightmare but the official system in the cabinet office for dealing this with doesn't seem to understand this, so it wasn'tjust the sort of, the kind of first order level of how bad it was, it was the second order level of what on effort is going on in this system, that this could be possible? fin is going on in this system, that this could be possible? on page 69 of 48313, there — this could be possible? on page 69 of 48313, there is _ this could be possible? on page 69 of 48313, there is a _ this could be possible? on page 69 of 48313, there is a whatsapp - of 48313, there is a whatsapp message from you, saying said well babbling about chicken pox. god help us. what was being said about chicken pox, mr cummings? studio: you are watching bbc news, a reminder this is a live stream of the uk covid inquiry and there is some course language being used in some course language being used in some of the communications. the cabinet some of the communications. tt2 cabinet secretary said, to the pm, pm, you should go on tv and explain that you know e this is like the old days with chicken pox and people will have chicken pox parties, and the sooner a lot of people get this and get it over with, the better sort of thing. and this had been mentioneded before this analogy and i said you should stop using this analogy and the cabinet secretary said why and ben warner said because chicken pox doesn't spread exponentially and kill people. the look on people's faces when ben said this, that was quite a crystallising moment because it made us a, think, who on earth is briefing the most important official in the country along these lines? this is terrifying. but also, other officials obviously heard this exchange and some came to us and said, essentially like something has gone terribly wrong in the cabinet office. bill gone terribly wrong in the cabinet office. �* ., , gone terribly wrong in the cabinet office. �* , office. all right. on friday 13th march, office. all right. on friday 13th march. the _ office. all right. on friday 13th march, the inquiry _ office. all right. on friday 13th march, the inquiry understand| office. all right. on friday 13th - march, the inquiry understand that of course there was the meeting in the evening, involving yourself and others, at which a plan b to use your wording was sketched out on a why white board. pit is at 49313 page " why white board. pit is at 49313 page —— 44 —— 48313. eseanly mr couple, and if you would confirm yes or no, this white board was the first emanation of plan b, which recognised that to stop the nhs collapsing there would have to be consideration of a lockdown, and of course it deals with the number of deaths, that would occur in a reasonable worst case scenario, it deals with issues as to how you deal with contact, what the differences are between plan a and b, who not to save,ie are between plan a and b, who not to save, ie who is at risk, and full lockdown before collapse. yes. this white board — lockdown before collapse. yes. this white board is _ lockdown before collapse. 123 this white board is moving around downing street, i think like thess es�* ship. it is plained to the prime minister and individual there's. yes. during and individualthere's. yes. during the course — and individualthere's. yes. during the course of _ and individualthere's. 123 during the course of that meeting though, the course of that meeting though, the prime minister texted you and mr hancock, sir patrick vallance and sir chris whitty. saying how do we win the hurd immunity argument? is that because not withstanding the information received from the scientist, from professor ferguson, from the nhs, your incipient understanding of the wave of death that was to ensure. it was still thought in number ten are downing street that herd immunity was the way forward. yes, but at this point on the friday evening, 13th march, plan a remained plan a and of course, what the pm is referring to, at that point in that week multiple scientist, including the csa and john edmunds had been explaining the herd immunity basic plan a, but there had been a lot of push back from it. the pm was nervy, saying how are we going to explain this better and how are we are going to get this argument out? the this better and how are we are going to get this argument out?— to get this argument out? the next da on the to get this argument out? the next day on the saturday, _ to get this argument out? the next day on the saturday, there - to get this argument out? the next day on the saturday, there were i to get this argument out? the next day on the saturday, there were a l day on the saturday, there were a number of meetings, there are also, there was a long debate on whatsapp, between the chief scientific adviser, the chief medical officer, mr hancock, the prime minister and yourself, can we have 48399. i don't want to spend too much time on this whatsapp thread, but, it shows on pages 3, 4, and 6, a fairly extensive debate about how herd immunity as an argument can still be advancedif immunity as an argument can still be advanced if it is to be advanced at all. but also, how concentration now needs to be focussed on measures to be taken to add voice transmission and save live, and i think on page 3, 14th march at 7.39. and save live, and i think on page 3,14th march at 7.39. mrjohnson says is, thank you, agree totally with above, that is why i i was concerned within some of the team were suggesting last week we actively need a proportion of population, to be infected. and if you could scroll back out. civil service need to grasp. so the prime minister understood that there was a problem here, with whether or not the system as you would describe it but civil service as he would describe it, understood the danger, understood the neat need for a change in strategy, the need to understood there was no time to be lost. t understood there was no time to be lost. 1' . understood there was no time to be lost. ~ ., , lost. i think that is oversimplifying i lost. i think that is i oversimplifying things if i lost. i think that is _ oversimplifying things if i may say so respectfully. if you look at the chronology, some of these messages are in the morning and some in the evening, a lot happened in that day. the morning the pm is still in plan a mode, then there is the, a meeting, that i, an official meeting and a second meeting and the situation, what, the pm's mind and other people's minds including patrick were very different even in this, between morning and evening on this, between morning and evening on this day. it was a day of psychological transition for a lot of people. psychological transition for a lot of --eole. ., ., psychological transition for a lot of eole. ., ., , ., , of people. the whole thread shows that evolution _ of people. the whole thread shows that evolution in _ of people. the whole thread shows that evolution in thinking, - of people. the whole thread shows that evolution in thinking, if - of people. the whole thread shows that evolution in thinking, if we i that evolution in thinking, if we gould to page six questions, seat 10.49am, mrjohnson says, no time. although i now can't see it. yes, thank you very much. 1049, 15 second, johnson worries seeing what happened in italy we simply have, in capital letters, no time. over that weekend, of the 14th and 15th, there are, as i said, a number of meetings, sage�*s asked to model lockdown. you are in touch with timothy gowers to ask him for his help and he says you've got to move urgently to extreme containment measure, correct.— 253942, page three. you asked him for his views and he says, you have got to move urgently to extreme containment measures. there we are, about a third of the way down the page. i now think we should move urgently towards extreme containment measures. then on that saturday, the 14th of march, at the official is�* meeting in the morning, number ten was informed that the outbreak was further along the curve than had been thought and there was a private meeting, was there not between nine o'clock and ten past nine between yourself, lee ken, imran shafi, yourself, lee ken, imran shafi, yourself and the prime minister, where you wield in your whiteboard and you took the prime minister through the problem. yes. in light of what lee _ through the problem. 123 in light of what lee kane said earlier, can you make plain

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communications plan for coronavirus, thatis communications plan for coronavirus, that is what that reference was recording hancock and co. and also, as you know there is an e—mail from, on 25th february, i was saying where are all of these red teams, where is this testing and what not that hancock promised us existed, where are the documents and we at number ten were starting to get a feel for the absence of things and a feel for the absence of things and a feel for the fact that the first wave of all the fact that the first wave of all the communications plans. you say the communications plans. you say the system — the communications plans. you say the system didn't _ the communications plans. you say the system didn't push _ the communications plans. you say the system didn't push him - the communications plans. you say the system didn't push him to - the communications plans. you say| the system didn't push him to come back, didn't regard it as crisis, but, you were part of the system, why weren't you pushing for these things. why weren't you pushing for these thins. , . why weren't you pushing for these thinqs-_ for- why weren't you pushing for these things._ for him - why weren't you pushing for these things._ for him to l things. push fairing? for him to come back. _ things. push fairing? for him to come back, and _ things. push fairing? for him to come back, and take _ things. push fairing? for him to come back, and take a - things. push fairing? for him to come back, and take a grip - things. push fairing? for him to come back, and take a grip on l things. push fairing? for him to l come back, and take a grip on the crisis. i come back, and take a grip on the crisis. . , ., ., crisis. i have explained that, i regarded _ crisis. i have explained that, i regarded him _ crisis. i have explained that, i regarded him coming - crisis. i have explained that, i regarded him coming back - crisis. i have explained that, i regarded him coming back at| crisis. i have explained that, i. regarded him coming back at the crisis. i have explained that, i- regarded him coming back at the time when the system, so, the system was not pushing him to say this is a crisis, if he had come back on 15th february, he would have said what he had already been saying in the previous ten days which is this is all ball, it is swine flu, the real danger is the economy, etc, etc. that would have been to me, highly counter productive, given me and patrick and others were worried about it. it is a fine balances act. you can see the problems we had with the handshaking which happens roughly at time, where i tried to push him, on handshaking and it completely boomeranged, so we had to be very careful in how we handled this nightmare problem. you be very careful in how we handled this nightmare problem.— be very careful in how we handled this nightmare problem. you say that there was a step _ this nightmare problem. you say that there was a step change _ this nightmare problem. you say that there was a step change or— this nightmare problem. you say that there was a step change or rather- there was a step change or rather there was a step change or rather the system changed direction, in the first week in march. but the government published on 2nd march an coronavirus action plan contained delay, mitigate, which was described by mr warner in an e—mail to you and others it wasn't a plan, it was a communication framework. yes. you understood — communication framework. is; you understood perfectly well communication framework. 123 you understood perfectly well it wasn't much of a plan, it was a comes plan, if it was anything. —— comms plan, if it was anything. —— comms plan, if it was anything. —— comms plan, if it was anything. did you alert people to the fact that a plan for contained delay mitigate was likely to be of little—use, given containment had already failed? there was certainly at this time growing conversations, this time i, when this plan was published, as you refer to, when this plan was published, as you referto, ben when this plan was published, as you refer to, ben warner was immediately aston northern irished when he saw this document, other people in number ten similarly imran and others, and this contributed to our growing sense that hang on a second, we have been told that we are the best prepared in the world we have been told these things exist, this document is obviously pretty much a joke, what the hell is going on? so, yes, that the time, you know, there was a curve of the virus but a curve of alarm in the pm's office and els where in the system.— of alarm in the pm's office and els where in the system. where are the e-mails from _ where in the system. where are the e-mails from you — where in the system. where are the e-mails from you saying _ where in the system. where are the e-mails from you saying as - where in the system. where are the e-mails from you saying as the - where in the system. where are the | e-mails from you saying as the chief e—mails from you saying as the chief adviser of the prime minister, our sole and prime coronavirus action plan contained delay, mitigate is a joke? i plan contained delay, mitigate is a 'oke? ., �* ~ ., , . joke? i don't know if there was such e-mails. e—mails. during the course of that week, more and more evidence came to light, both of the spread of the virus in italy, which had increased five fold, more measures were proposed to combat the spread of covid in the lombardi and other northern provinces are. a and as you have described in your statement, mark warner and you debate on the 7th march your incipient concerns about plan a. on the 10th march, so a matter of days after your concern has started to emerge about the whole strategic direction of the government had embarked on, the civil contingencies secretariat prepared —— prepared a note, 49583, in which the director of the ccs stated in paragraph one, covid—19 looks increasingly likely to be a global pandemic although this is not yet fully certain. the note sets out the views of the c. cs as to the need to have fast track legislation to effectively manage the outbreak, it deals with excess death management, and the need for plans to be drawn up. did you or anybody else push back against this document, and say, it is absurd to believe that a covid—19 global pandemic is not yet fully certain. given the concerns you were beginning to have?— given the concerns you were bearinnin to have? , ., ., beginning to have? yes, throughout this 9th march — beginning to have? yes, throughout this 9th march is _ beginning to have? yes, throughout this 9th march is the _ beginning to have? yes, throughout this 9th march is the monday, - beginning to have? yes, throughout this 9th march is the monday, the l this 9th march is the monday, the throughout this week, as you say, having spoken to mark and others over the weekend, well, over the previous week, as you can see from multiple messages from this day on wards, i was very concerned and this document also was, was one of many documents that appeared at that time, that seemed to some of us in number ten make clear that the system was miles off the pace. because they no longer, they simply didn't reflect the change in thinking or the emerging understanding as to how far the virus had spread in the absence of means to control it. $1150 virus had spread in the absence of means to control it.— means to control it. also i think, i think a really _ means to control it. also i think, i think a really crucial— means to control it. also i think, i think a really crucial and - think a really crucial and underrated aspect is the speed, one of the things that is very striking looking back, preparing for this is... is... even in the week of, everyone when we go forward a week to the. ifer you go forward another week to the 23rd, the week of the lockdown, there is documents coming through from ccs and cobra and the cabinet office showing the crisis peaking in end of may, beginning of june. and i think this is critical to understand, the fact that was still on graphs in the week of 26th is genuinely astonishing in represent speblingt because it is completely false. what, a critical thing at this point on the 9th was, that partly because mark warner at this point, that had his data team eembed grd the nhs, and they were getting better data. we in number ten started to short circuit the cabinet office system and ccs because we were getting information directly from the nhs and we started to realise hang on, there is a fundamental mismatch between the shape of the curve that is coming out of the graphs coming from cobra and the cabinet office, peaking at the end of may/june and the information we are getting from the nhs which is showing that the crisis is almost upon us, so this was all, this was... increasingly alarming all the way through this, on 9th, i think it was, i asked imran, again, this was not supposed to be a job for spads, i said get in touch with see monday stephens office and get information from there to here, so that we can see what they are talking about. you can see chatter between warner and patrick on this. on this exact subject. it’s between warner and patrick on this. on this exact subject.— on this exact sub'ect. it's a very longance. h on this exact sub'ect. it's a very longance. r — on this exact sub'ect. it's a very longance, iwill— on this exact subject. it's a very longance, i will ask _ on this exact subject. it's a very longance, i will ask you - on this exact subject. it's a very longance, i will ask you about . on this exact subject. it's a very l longance, i will ask you about ben warner, he received an e—mailfrom professor neil ferguson on 10th march, in which professor ferguson asked him to show or to distribute to the prime minister and cabinet, documents relating to this surge demand and daily number of deaths that were likely. on 10th march, the cheltenham festival commenced. and on the same day, public health england data presented to sage the true number of cases in the united kingdom what was to be measured in the tens of thousand, professor ferguson challenged number ten officials that the sage meeting and asked them do you know what an epidemic with 4,000—6,000 deaths per day would feel like? what was the reaction in number ten when that informing was relayed back to you? well it contributed to our growing sense that something had gone horrifically wrong, in the communication between sage, dhsc and the cabinet office notjust about the cabinet office notjust about the scale of the problem but the speed of the problem.— the scale of the problem but the speed of the problem. request was from a reconsideration _ speed of the problem. request was from a reconsideration of _ speed of the problem. request was from a reconsideration of the - speed of the problem. request was i from a reconsideration of the wisdom of allowing mass gathering to continue. it of allowing mass gathering to continue. . . of allowing mass gathering to continue. .,, ,. ,, continue. it was discussed in the context of _ continue. it was discussed in the context of the _ continue. it was discussed in the context of the cheltenham - continue. it was discussed in the l context of the cheltenham event, continue. it was discussed in the - context of the cheltenham event, but again, the pm was advices at the time, that bannings a mass events would, what the pm was told at that time, was, if you ban mass events pm then people willjust goes to pubs instead, and that will be even worse. of course, now the obvious question is, why are they all going to pubs? but remember, there was no plan for lockdown, on 9th and 10th march, there was no plan for stopping these things so if you are not going to close pubs you can see the kind of twisted logic of don't stop things like cheltenham or football matches and everything else. fin football matches and everything else. " . football matches and everything else. " ., else. on 11th march, you sent a whatsapp _ else. on 11th march, you sent a whatsapp message, _ else. on 11th march, you sent a whatsapp message, 102697, i else. on 11th march, you sent a . whatsapp message, 102697, page else. on 11th march, you sent a - whatsapp message, 102697, page 17. where you say in the march, there was no plan for stopping these things so if you are not going to close pubs you can see the kind of twisted logic of don't stop things like cheltenham or football matches and everything else. on 11th march, you sent a whatsapp message, 102697, page 17. where you say in the mid of the page i "i think it is really important senior people understand and are able to discuss with prime minister this fundamental question. all sensible people can see the that geck triand how social distancing will be needed to flatten the curve, very sensible people, people are saying the risk of delay are higher than the risk of going too soon and you say further down the page, why wait five days, why not move now and flatten the curve earlier? yes. flatten the curve earlier? ". yes, was your— flatten the curve earlier? ". yes, was your appeal _ flatten the curve earlier? ". yes, was your appeal heard _ flatten the curve earlier? ". yes, was your appeal heard mr - flatten the curve earlier? 12: was your appeal heard mr cummings? no. ~ , ., was your appeal heard mr cummings? no. . , ., , was your appeal heard mr cummings? no. ~ , ., ,, it was your appeal heard mr cummings? no. ~ , ., ., itisa was your appeal heard mr cummings? no-_ it is a very— was your appeal heard mr cummings? no._ it is a very complex l no. why not snp it is a very complex ruestion, no. why not snp it is a very complex question. to — no. why not snp it is a very complex question, to which _ no. why not snp it is a very complex question, to which i _ no. why not snp it is a very complex question, to which i don't _ no. why not snp it is a very complex question, to which i don't have - no. why not snp it is a very complex question, to which i don't have a - question, to which i don't have a clear answer. question, to which i don't have a clearanswer. i question, to which i don't have a clear answer. i think, question, to which i don't have a clearanswer. ithink, i clear answer. i think, i think obvious question, to which i don't have a clearanswer. ithink, i clear answer. i think, i think obvious lip question, to which i don't have a clearanswer. ithink, i clear answer. i think, i think obvious lip at question, to which i don't have a clearanswer. ithink, i clear answer. i think, i think obvious lip at this question, to which i don't have a clearanswer. ithink, i clear answer. i think, i think obvious lip at this point, question, to which i don't have a clearanswer. ithink, i clear answer. i think, i think obvious lip at this point, sage people are still going on tv, saying well, the plan is herd immunity and it makes sense, so the fundamental plan a strategy was in place on the 11th. but they... there was also at this point, this, question, to which i don't have a clear answer. i think, ithink i don't have a clear answer. i think, i think obvious lip at this point, sage people are still going on tv, saying well, the plan is herd immunity and it makes sense, so the fundamental plan a strategy was in place on the 11th. but they... there was also at this point, this, this question, to which i don't have a clear answer. question, to which i don't have a clearanswer. i question, to which i don't have a clear answer. i think, question, to which i don't have a clearanswer. ithink, i question, to which i don't have a clear answer. i think, i think obvious lip at this point, sage people are still going on tv, saying well, the plan is herd immunity and it makes sense, so the fundamental plan a strategy was in place on the 11th. but they... there was also at this point, this, this concept of "behavioural fatigue", this point, this, this concept of "behaviouralfatigue", that this point, this, this concept of "behavioural fatigue", that people kept referring to. and i think is a really, really critical question. just pause there. on behavioural parliament tee, what was the genesis of this —— parliament fatigue, if you went too early people would struggle to sustain commitment. the pm and i struggle to sustain commitment. tt2 pm and i was told any struggle to sustain commitment. t't2 pm and i was told any this struggle to sustain commitment. tt2 pm and i was told any this week that it came from sage, however, obviously, since then, sage and spy b people have rushed to try and claim it was not me, not me, so, i don't think it is actually been, i don't think it is actually been, i don't know what the answer to this is, what i do know is that patrick —— patrick and chris talked about this concept in this week and this was another red flag for some of us in numberten, because was another red flag for some of us in number ten, because of course some of us had worked on political campaigns and we knew a lot of sufficient coming from behavioural scientists turned out to be dodgy science and docky concepts so we were worried about this, but, in that week —— dodgy concepts is, a critical meme that was being repeated this has to be done at the right time, this has to be done at the right time.— right time, this has to be done at the riaht time. ~ ~ the right time. when you say the pm was told and — the right time. when you say the pm was told and i _ the right time. when you say the pm was told and i was _ the right time. when you say the pm was told and i was told, _ the right time. when you say the pm was told and i was told, so _ the right time. when you say the pm was told and i was told, so we - the right time. when you say the pm was told and i was told, so we are i was told and i was told, so we are clear mr cummings, who told you that there was a problem with maintaining commitment? this there was a problem with maintaining commitment?— commitment? this was referred to by patrick and chris _ commitment? this was referred to by patrick and chris in _ commitment? this was referred to by patrick and chris in their _ commitment? this was referred to by patrick and chris in their briefings - patrick and chris in their briefings in, in the pm's office, they said this had come from sage. and of course they refired to it publicly in various documents. this course they refired to it publicly in various documents.— course they refired to it publicly in various documents. this was all intimately bound _ in various documents. this was all intimately bound up _ in various documents. this was all intimately bound up of _ in various documents. this was all intimately bound up of course - in various documents. this was all| intimately bound up of course with the understanding of herd immunity, one way strategy, you have to allow people to, you have to allow parts of the population to become infected, that will reduce the risk of an uncoiled second wave and soen and so forth, and at the same time this idea took hold that you couldn't go too soon because whatever measures were put in place were unsustainable. 50. whatever measures were put in place were unsustainable.— were unsustainable. so, they might be unsustainable _ were unsustainable. so, they might be unsustainable but _ were unsustainable. so, they might be unsustainable but b, _ were unsustainable. so, they might be unsustainable but b, the - be unsustainable but b, the fundamental distinction if you for a sinale in fundamental distinction if you for a single ing peak— fundamental distinction if you for a single ing peak strategy, they didn't want to go too soon, because that would actually suppress things and the thing would pop back up straightaway. indeed. fight! and the thing would pop back up straightaway. indeed.— and the thing would pop back up straightaway. indeed. and that is wh when straightaway. indeed. and that is why when you — straightaway. indeed. and that is why when you asked _ straightaway. indeed. and that is why when you asked if _ straightaway. indeed. and that is why when you asked if it - straightaway. indeed. and that is why when you asked if it was - straightaway. indeed. and that is why when you asked if it was my| why when you asked if it was my question properlianced, in the all caps here why not move now and flatten curve earlier, that is the logic of, if you are not going to do a single peak, if you are going to try and control it and suppress it now, then, the simple logic of exponential curves, the sooner you do it the better, but that was not what the, what the planning assumption was on the 11th. were you readily persuaded _ assumption was on the 11th. were you readily persuaded that _ assumption was on the 11th. were you readily persuaded that the _ assumption was on the 11th. were you readily persuaded that the herd - readily persuaded that the herd immunity approach, or rather the one wave strategy was the wrong way to go? tt wave strategy was the wrong way to 1 o? , wave strategy was the wrong way to o? , ., , ., , , wave strategy was the wrong way to no? ., _ ., wave strategy was the wrong way to go? it is obviously hard to reconstruct _ go? it is obviously hard to reconstruct psychology . go? it is obviously hard to - reconstruct psychology exactly, but i would say by this time, so certainly in the week of 9th, 10th, 11th, i had growing doubts on an hourly basis, by the 11th, i was pretty much in... so, by the 11th my view was, i have got an appalling feeling that i am being one of those like historic catastrophes likejuly 1914. i am not completely sure of it, but i have got some very smart people coming to me saying, this is, a fundamentally the strategy is wrong, misconceived, but also, at a practical level at this point, remember, i was sitting in an office and suddenly overhearing people having phone calls about whether local authorities could book out ice rinks and get trucks to carry massive numbers of bodies and store them in ice rinks these conversations suddenly placketsed in the week of the 9th so we had on the one hand, a fundamental argument, is the strategy misconceived or not p but we also had this growing cascade of nightmare conversations going on round us, when we realised that the system was just completely out of control, in terms of coping with its original plan a.— original plan a. could we have 173144 on _ original plan a. could we have 173144 on the _ original plan a. could we have 173144 on the screen, - original plan a. could we have 173144 on the screen, page . original plan a. could we have l 173144 on the screen, page one. mr hancock in a whatsapp message with damon poole dated 23rd may. says herd immunity was never the government strategy but it was what dom was pushing until he was persueded to drop it in early march, is that a fair apheasants. e —— persuaded. —— fair assess. is that a fair apheasants. e —— persuaded. —— fairassess. tt is persuaded. -- fair assess. it is obviously _ persuaded. -- fair assess. it is obviously laughable. _ obviously laughable. when did it become apparent that modelling may not have been necessary, in order to drive home the point that with the number of deaths and hospital cases that were the inevitable result of the infection fatality rate and the hospitalisation rate, the health care system would likely to be overwhelmed? 50. care system would likely to be overwhelmed?— care system would likely to be overwhelmed? ,, ., �* . ., overwhelmed? so, mark and ben warner raised this with — overwhelmed? so, mark and ben warner raised this with me _ overwhelmed? so, mark and ben warner raised this with me from _ overwhelmed? so, mark and ben warner raised this with me from a _ overwhelmed? so, mark and ben warner raised this with me from a week - raised this with me from a week before this point, of the tenth, 11th march, but when it really came home very starkly was, after, i asked i think on the monday, imran, but somehow between us imran and i asked the nhs to provide their data which for some odd reason hadn't come through, and there is references to that between warner and vallance, that data arrived and i asked to get simon stevens in to present it which i think happened on the 12th. th. everyone, all the records are a bit iffy on that date for reasons you are aware of. but when we saw this nhs documents, and mark warner explained the background of it, that is what really made things incredibly stark, because you had the two completely divergent sets of graph, one from the nhs and one from the cobra system. fin sets of graph, one from the nhs and one from the cobra system.- one from the cobra system. on the 11th march there _ one from the cobra system. on the 11th march there was _ one from the cobra system. on the 11th march there was a _ one from the cobra system. on the 11th march there was a cabinet - 11th march there was a cabinet meeting, 56132, at page four, the secretary of state for health and social care said this to cabinet. you can see about two thirds of the way down the page. without the systems of a dry cough and the it was hikely unlikely that someone was suffering from coronavirus. by the 11th march was it generally well understood in downing street that a large percentage, proportion of this disease for the viral spread in fact was transmitted asymptomatically? tt was. and mr hancock made this point in multiple ways, and sowed chaos but saying this, he was repeatedly told by patrick vallance what he was saying was wrong, he said it here, it makes its way into statements that have been provided to this inquiry, so this false meme, largeed etc in crucial people's minds. i don't ounce, never understood why he said this but patrick vallance made extremely clearly to mee me and to others in number ten what hancock was saying was factually wrong. fin was saying was factually wrong. on 12th march you messaged the prime minister, raising concerns, part of the message was put to mr cain earlier, 48313, page 22. you see there, the 12th march date, this is the reference to the need to chair daily meet information the cabinet roomf chair daily meet information the cabinet room f you go over the page, please, to page 23. the overwhelming danger here is being late and the nhs implodes like zombie apocalypse film. not being a week early. what did you mean by that? ., , ., , , that? so, it means the last message? yes. well, at— that? so, it means the last message? yes. well, at this _ that? so, it means the last message? yes. well, at this point, _ that? so, it means the last message? yes. well, at this point, we _ that? so, it means the last message? yes. well, at this point, we had - that? so, it means the last message? yes. well, at this point, we had got . yes. well, at this point, we had got the data i yes. well, at this point, we had got the data i had _ yes. well, at this point, we had got the data i had asked _ yes. well, at this point, we had got the data i had asked for _ yes. well, at this point, we had got the data i had asked for from - yes. well, at this point, we had got the data i had asked for from the i the data i had asked for from the nhs and we had seen these graphs, and it was clear, it made stark and not only the scale of the problem, but also, also two things, a, that the whole crisis was coming much, much faster than we had been told, and that the cabinet office understood and it was on the official graphs and secondly, to me, almost worse than this, was... like what on earth is going on? how can we be in a situation where the nhs has graphs showing we are days away from having to work out what to do stop this nightmare but the official system in the cabinet office for dealing this with doesn't seem to understand this, so it wasn'tjust the sort of, the kind of first order level of how bad it was, it was the second order level of what on effort is going on in this system, that this could be possible? fin is going on in this system, that this could be possible? on page 69 of 48313, there — this could be possible? on page 69 of 48313, there is _ this could be possible? on page 69 of 48313, there is a _ this could be possible? on page 69 of 48313, there is a whatsapp - of 48313, there is a whatsapp message from you, saying said well babbling about chicken pox. god help us. what was being said about chicken pox, mr cummings? studio: you are watching bbc news, a reminder this is a live stream of the uk covid inquiry and there is some course language being used in some course language being used in some of the communications. the cabinet some of the communications. tt2 cabinet secretary said, to the pm, pm, you should go on tv and explain that you know e this is like the old days with chicken pox and people will have chicken pox parties, and the sooner a lot of people get this and get it over with, the better sort of thing. and this had been mentioneded before this analogy and i said you should stop using this analogy and the cabinet secretary said why and ben warner said because chicken pox doesn't spread exponentially and kill people. the look on people's faces when ben said this, that was quite a crystallising moment because it made us a, think, who on earth is briefing the most important official in the country along these lines? this is terrifying. but also, other officials obviously heard this exchange and some came to us and said, essentially like something has gone terribly wrong in the cabinet office. bill gone terribly wrong in the cabinet office. �* ., , gone terribly wrong in the cabinet office. �* , office. all right. on friday 13th march, office. all right. on friday 13th march. the _ office. all right. on friday 13th march, the inquiry _ office. all right. on friday 13th march, the inquiry understand| office. all right. on friday 13th - march, the inquiry understand that of course there was the meeting in the evening, involving yourself and others, at which a plan b to use your wording was sketched out on a why white board. pit is at 49313 page " why white board. pit is at 49313 page —— 44 —— 48313. eseanly mr couple, and if you would confirm yes or no, this white board was the first emanation of plan b, which recognised that to stop the nhs collapsing there would have to be consideration of a lockdown, and of course it deals with the number of deaths, that would occur in a reasonable worst case scenario, it deals with issues as to how you deal with contact, what the differences are between plan a and b, who not to save,ie are between plan a and b, who not to save, ie who is at risk, and full lockdown before collapse. yes. this white board — lockdown before collapse. yes. this white board is _ lockdown before collapse. 123 this white board is moving around downing street, i think like thess es�* ship. it is plained to the prime minister and individual there's. yes. during and individualthere's. yes. during the course — and individualthere's. yes. during the course of _ and individualthere's. 123 during the course of that meeting though, the course of that meeting though, the prime minister texted you and mr hancock, sir patrick vallance and sir chris whitty. saying how do we win the hurd immunity argument? is that because not withstanding the information received from the scientist, from professor ferguson, from the nhs, your incipient understanding of the wave of death that was to ensure. it was still thought in number ten are downing street that herd immunity was the way forward. yes, but at this point on the friday evening, 13th march, plan a remained plan a and of course, what the pm is referring to, at that point in that week multiple scientist, including the csa and john edmunds had been explaining the herd immunity basic plan a, but there had been a lot of push back from it. the pm was nervy, saying how are we going to explain this better and how are we are going to get this argument out? the this better and how are we are going to get this argument out?— to get this argument out? the next da on the to get this argument out? the next day on the saturday, _ to get this argument out? the next day on the saturday, there - to get this argument out? the next day on the saturday, there were i to get this argument out? the next day on the saturday, there were a l day on the saturday, there were a number of meetings, there are also, there was a long debate on whatsapp, between the chief scientific adviser, the chief medical officer, mr hancock, the prime minister and yourself, can we have 48399. i don't want to spend too much time on this whatsapp thread, but, it shows on pages 3, 4, and 6, a fairly extensive debate about how herd immunity as an argument can still be advancedif immunity as an argument can still be advanced if it is to be advanced at all. but also, how concentration now needs to be focussed on measures to be taken to add voice transmission and save live, and i think on page 3, 14th march at 7.39. and save live, and i think on page 3,14th march at 7.39. mrjohnson says is, thank you, agree totally with above, that is why i i was concerned within some of the team were suggesting last week we actively need a proportion of population, to be infected. and if you could scroll back out. civil service need to grasp. so the prime minister understood that there was a problem here, with whether or not the system as you would describe it but civil service as he would describe it, understood the danger, understood the neat need for a change in strategy, the need to understood there was no time to be lost. t understood there was no time to be lost. 1' . understood there was no time to be lost. ~ ., , lost. i think that is oversimplifying i lost. i think that is i oversimplifying things if i lost. i think that is _ oversimplifying things if i may say so respectfully. if you look at the chronology, some of these messages are in the morning and some in the evening, a lot happened in that day. the morning the pm is still in plan a mode, then there is the, a meeting, that i, an official meeting and a second meeting and the situation, what, the pm's mind and other people's minds including patrick were very different even in this, between morning and evening on this, between morning and evening on this day. it was a day of psychological transition for a lot of people. psychological transition for a lot of --eole. ., ., psychological transition for a lot of eole. ., ., , ., , of people. the whole thread shows that evolution _ of people. the whole thread shows that evolution in _ of people. the whole thread shows that evolution in thinking, - of people. the whole thread shows that evolution in thinking, if - of people. the whole thread shows that evolution in thinking, if we i that evolution in thinking, if we gould to page six questions, seat 10.49am, mrjohnson says, no time. although i now can't see it. yes, thank you very much. 1049, 15 second, johnson worries seeing what happened in italy we simply have, in capital letters, no time. over that weekend, of the 14th and 15th, there are, as i said, a number of meetings, sage�*s asked to model lockdown. you are in touch with timothy gowers to ask him for his help and he says you've got to move urgently to extreme containment measure, correct.— 253942, page three. you asked him for his views and he says, you have got to move urgently to extreme containment measures. there we are, about a third of the way down the page. i now think we should move urgently towards extreme containment measures. then on that saturday, the 14th of march, at the official is�* meeting in the morning, number ten was informed that the outbreak was further along the curve than had been thought and there was a private meeting, was there not between nine o'clock and ten past nine between yourself, lee ken, imran shafi, yourself, lee ken, imran shafi, yourself and the prime minister, where you wield in your whiteboard and you took the prime minister through the problem. yes. in light of what lee _ through the problem. 123 in light of what lee kane said earlier, can you make plain

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