(Warning: cuteness ahead.) How does it feel to be a loan officer dealing with multiple borrowers on one loan? The study of how people borrow money, and where they’re moving, is of great interest to LOs and lenders, as well as vendors and real estate agents. (Warning: numbers ahead.) Though many believed that the spike in WFH (work from home) workers associated with the COVID-19 pandemic would lead to greater geographic mobility, the number of domestic movers in the United States actually declined from 2019 to 2021. The percentage of people in the United States who moved in the previous year declined from about 14 percent to roughly 13 percent, according to the 2019 and 2021 American Community Survey estimates. In 2019, 7.6 percent of the U.S. population moved to a new residence in the same county; by 2021, that percentage had declined to 6.7 percent. The percentage of those who reported that they had moved the previous year to a new residence in a different county within the sam
Raquel Welch, who passed away yesterday, was an icon in the 60s and 70s. Mick Jagger was as well, and sang, “Just My Imagination” many years ago. But it is not your imagination that residential lending is facing some renewed speedbumps. (Yeah, I know that’s a stretch, but it’s a cool song.) Last night in Spokane at the SMLA meeting, key topics including pricing and rates. It isn’t your imagination that lenders are rolling out the new conforming loan level price adjustments this week, given the delivery requirements from Freddie and Fannie, and despite the redisclosure and operations problems that will inevitably arise. It is also not your imagination that we are being hit by mortgage rates moving higher. Jobs, inflation, and retail sales data all point toward a solid economy, recession be damned, and as a result, higher rates. But for some good news, homebuilder confidence is improving, according to the NAHB, seeing the largest monthly increase for bu
The mortgage industry has come a long way from March of 2020, when the Federal Reserve pledged to buy “unlimited” amounts of Treasuries and MBS to stabilize the credit markets. The Fed started to shrink its balance sheet earlier this summer, and at the start of this month ramped up to a reduction rate of $95 billion per month ($60 billion of Treasuries and $35 billion of MBS) with plans to end its purchases of MBS from early payoff proceeds next week. The Fed’s actions in March of 2020 helped stave off margin calls for many lenders, though several European countries are now providing billions of euros in margin call support to European energy companies that need at least $1.5 trillion to cover the cost of their exposure to soaring gas prices. Margin calls eat into companies’ capital, and mortgage companies need all the cash they can get in this higher interest rate environment that has shocked borrower demand and subdued sales. Time on the market for homes i
As rumors of correspondent, wholesale, and retail company cutbacks or closings continue to bounce around our biz, how about this non-mortgage tidbit. During his off hours in New York, Ira S. found yet another fun and fascinating website: a map of the U.S. that one can zoom in/out of, and it will list the resident looked up most on Wikipedia (they had to be born, lived in, or somehow connected to the city). Much less fun is the fact that Capital markets staffs have turned their attention, due to recent rate drops, to renegotiations in the primary markets with LOs and AEs. In the secondary markets, of course, Wall Street firms don’t renegotiate hedge positions. In other words, one can’t call up Morgan Stanley or BAML or Multi-Bank Securities and whine, “Uh, remember that MBS we sold you three weeks ago? Well, rates have moved, and we want a better price or else.” In fact, I’ve even heard nervousness from lenders about margin calls from broker-dealers, e
Running feels great unless you compare it to not running. While here in Northern California for a board meeting, I received, “I read your capital markets section every day because I can understand it, but can you please knock off using ‘basis points’? They are confusing.” I admit they take a while to understand, but easy to compare & convert the two. 1 percent is 100 basis points. 50 basis points is ½ of one percent. 75 basis points is ¾ of one percent. I mention this because “seventy-five basis points is the new 50 basis points.” Everyone was expecting ½ percent increases in Fed Funds, but no more. A relentlessly hawkish Federal Reserve is ramping up market expectations for big interest rate hikes that would have been considered unthinkable (and market crippling) just two months ago. Nomura says that the FOMC will hike the fed funds rate by 75-basis points in June and July after a 50-basis point rise in M