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Housing Supply, Career Opportunities, Vendor Services; How the Fed Impacts Rates

It’s Fed decision day today and another 75-basis point rate hike is expected. Mortgage rates have surged to 14-year highs, deterring both buyers and builders, who have begun making the shift to apartments. ArchMI released its quarterly Housing and Mortgage Market Review, which said that rates aren’t expected to return to the sub-3 percent, or sub-4 percent, range any time soon. Existing home sales have declined sharply to sit nearly 30 percent below the January 2021 pandemic peak of 6.65 million and about 10 percent below the 2019 average of 5.24 million. Over the past year, home prices climbed another 13 percent and combined with increases in mortgage rates have caused the cost of homeownership to surge 48 percent year-over-year and 79 percent over two years. Bloomberg reported that “Months of supply has rarely increased as quickly as it has over the past six months. While we have a limited sample size of this kind of volatility, the size of this increase is norma

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Recruiting, Cap Mkts , DPA, Lead Conversion, Broker Products; Jumbo, Non-Agency, Non-QM News

We began 2022 thinking that this might be the “Year of Non-QM.” The product certainly has its advantages for some borrowers, and lenders &amp; investors. And then First Guaranty and Sprout vanished, and the herd of lenders was spooked, began talking about March of 2020 when some investors backed away from the market, and everyone was reminded to never have only one “take out” for a given loan or product. And then the headline yesterday: “SEC Charges Angel Oak Capital Advisors with Misleading Investors in $90 Million Fix-and-Flip Securitization.” Meanwhile, the industry is watching inflation numbers yesterday and today. One way to fight inflation is for a food supplier to put four tomatoes in a box that held five in the past. And don’t get me started on restaurant portions: higher prices and smaller portions have caught the attention of Consumer Affairs. Know that since the CPI report yesterday, Fed speakers have been quick to tem

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Purchase Advice API, TBA Trading Tools; STRATMOR on Signing Bonuses; Webinars and Training to Finish July

Purchase Advice API, TBA Trading Tools; STRATMOR on Signing Bonuses; Webinars and Training to Finish July
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New Loan Products; Sales Webinar; GSE s New Fee, Conforming Conventional Changes

“I used to be indecisive. Now I'm not so sure.” Management teams at lenders and vendors can’t be indecisive in this environment. Who’s going to be right, come Q4 of this year, and Q1 of 2023, which many believe are going to be extremely painful as the purchase market seasonally slows. Are the cuts lenders are making now enough to show warehouse lenders and broker-dealers profitable months and quarters? News continues to hit the tape, including Russia’s first default on debt since 1918. As mentioned in Saturday’s commentary, last week we had the FGMC (First Guarantee) big layoffs/closure of its correspondent and wholesale divisions. There was JPMorgan’s mortgage-related layoffs. That said, what makes headlines these days should be lenders and vendors who aren’t laying people off rather than those that are. How about lenders, servicers, and asset holders watching the Florida (“The Plywood State”) homeowner

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TPO loan, Customer Service, CRA, QC, Lead-Gen Tools; Widespread Agency Changes; Why No Decent ARM Pricing?

Running feels great unless you compare it to not running. While here in Northern California for a board meeting, I received, “I read your capital markets section every day because I can understand it, but can you please knock off using ‘basis points’? They are confusing.” I admit they take a while to understand, but easy to compare &amp; convert the two. 1 percent is 100 basis points. 50 basis points is ½ of one percent. 75 basis points is ¾ of one percent. I mention this because “seventy-five basis points is the new 50 basis points.” Everyone was expecting ½ percent increases in Fed Funds, but no more. A relentlessly hawkish Federal Reserve is ramping up market expectations for big interest rate hikes that would have been considered unthinkable (and market crippling) just two months ago. Nomura says that the FOMC will hike the fed funds rate by 75-basis points in June and July after a 50-basis point rise in M

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