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The mortgage industry has come a long way from March of 2020, when the Federal Reserve pledged to buy “unlimited” amounts of Treasuries and MBS to stabilize the credit markets. The Fed started to shrink its balance sheet earlier this summer, and at the start of this month ramped up to a reduction rate of $95 billion per month ($60 billion of Treasuries and $35 billion of MBS) with plans to end its purchases of MBS from early payoff proceeds next week. The Fed’s actions in March of 2020 helped stave off margin calls for many lenders, though several European countries are now providing billions of euros in margin call support to European energy companies that need at least $1.5 trillion to cover the cost of their exposure to soaring gas prices. Margin calls eat into companies’ capital, and mortgage companies need all the cash they can get in this higher interest rate environment that has shocked borrower demand and subdued sales. Time on the market for homes increased in August for the first time in 26 months and the post-Labor Day slowdown is expected to be a little more intense this year than the tight market of 2020 and 2021. Fortunately, tappable equity, the amount a homeowner can borrow against while keeping a 20 percent equity stake, hit its 10th consecutive quarterly record high in Q2 at $11.5 trillion. Bring on those cash out refinances! (Today’s podcast is available here and includes a discussion between Robbie and me on the types of emails I receive and the best parties from yesteryear in the mortgage industry. This week’s podcasts are sponsored by Candor. With Candor’s Machine as an Underwriter, lenders modernize their manufacturing infrastructure making them immune to margin, capacity, and staffing challenges forever.)

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