How immunity from and interaction with seasonal coronaviruses can shape SARS-CoV-2 epidemiology

Cross-protection from seasonal epidemics of human coronaviruses (HCoVs) has been hypothesized to contribute to the relative sparing of children during the early phase of the pandemic. Testing this relies on understanding the prepandemic age distribution of recent HCoV infections, but little is known about their dynamics. Using England and Wales as a case study, we use a transmission model to estimate the duration of immunity to seasonal coronaviruses, and show how cross-protection could have affected the age distribution of susceptibility during the first wave, and could alter SARS-CoV-2 transmission patterns over the coming decade.

Related Keywords

United Kingdom ,Australia ,Kenya ,United States ,Singapore ,Brazil ,Sweden ,Michigan ,London ,City Of ,Scotland ,American ,Jamesd Munday ,Rosannac Barnard ,Katherinee Atkins ,Fabienne Krauer ,Rachel Lowe ,Yalda Jafari ,Akira Endo ,Mark Jit ,Damienc Tully ,Gwenanm Knight ,Kiesha Prem ,Matthew Quaife ,Annam Foss ,Thibaut Jombart ,Adamj Kucharski ,C Julian Villabona ,David Hodgson ,Amy Gimma ,Simonr Procter ,Kevin Van Zandvoort ,Fiona Yueqian Sun ,Mihaly Koltai ,Samuel Clifford ,Ciarav Mccarthy ,William Waites ,Christopheri Jarvis ,Desmond Chan ,Frankg Sandmann ,Kathleen Oreilly ,W John Edmunds ,Joel Hellewell ,Sophier Meakin ,Kaja Abbas ,Edwardm Hill ,Sam Abbott ,Yang Liu ,Timothyw Russell ,Alicia Rosello ,Carlab Pearson ,Sebastian Funk ,Rachael Pung ,Hamishp Gibbs ,Emilys Nightingale ,Emilie Finch ,Oliver Brady ,Google ,Innovation Programme ,Research Councils United Kingdom ,Health Economics ,Wellcome ,Research Council Grants ,European Union Horizon ,Health Protection Research Unit ,European Commission ,Wellcome Trust Epidemic Preparedness Coronavirus ,United Kingdom Centre For Arbovirus Discovery ,Centre For Mathematical Modelling Of Infectious Disease ,Health Protection Research Unit For Modelling Methodology ,London School Of Hygiene ,Commonwealth Development Office ,Office For National Statistics ,Royal Society Grant ,Global Challenges Research Fund ,Melinda Gates Foundation ,Singapore Ministry Of Health ,National Health Service ,Wellcome Trust ,Imperial College London ,United Kingdom Public Health Rapid Support Team ,Research Council ,United Kingdom Department Of Health ,Royal Society Dorothy Hodgkin Fellowship ,Innovation Fund ,Health Data Research ,European Developing Countries Clinical Trials Partnership ,Nakajima Foundation ,National Institute For Health Research ,Elrha Research For Health ,Paulo Research Foundation ,Public Health England ,European Research Council ,Middle East ,National Statistics ,Monte Carlo Markov Chain ,Future Dynamics ,Medical Research Council ,National Institute ,Health Research ,Protection Research Unit ,London School ,Tropical Medicine ,European Union ,Sir Henry Dale Fellowship ,Royal Society ,United Kingdom Innovation Fellowship ,Mathematical Modelling ,Infectious Disease ,Paul Mee ,Graham Medley ,Jiayao Lei ,Yung Wai Desmond Chan ,Kathleeno Reilly ,Brazil United Kingdom Centre ,Arbovirus Discovery ,Developing Countries Clinical Trials Partnership ,Elrha Research ,Humanitarian Crises ,Development Office ,Starting Grant ,Epidemic Preparedness Coronavirus ,Social Research Council ,Modelling Methodology ,Dorothy Hodgkin Fellowship ,Singapore Ministry ,United Kingdom Department ,Social Care ,United Kingdom Government ,