Cross-protection from seasonal epidemics of human coronaviruses (HCoVs) has been hypothesized to contribute to the relative sparing of children during the early phase of the pandemic. Testing this relies on understanding the prepandemic age distribution of recent HCoV infections, but little is known about their dynamics. Using England and Wales as a case study, we use a transmission model to estimate the duration of immunity to seasonal coronaviruses, and show how cross-protection could have affected the age distribution of susceptibility during the first wave, and could alter SARS-CoV-2 transmission patterns over the coming decade.
In a modelling study, Carl A B Pearson and coauthors investigate the health impact and cost-effectiveness of various COVID-19 vaccination scenarios in Sindh Province, Pakistan
mass rapid antigen testing in Slovakia
Abstract
Mass antigen testing in Slovakia conducted in October and November 2020 is a source of important data. We perform its statistical analysis and study epidemic geographical patterns. We observe exponentially distributed test positivity and exponential trends in its geographical distribution, and its approximately 10 km spatial characteristic correlation length.
A small correlation between positivity in two consecutive testing rounds appeared on the municipalities level but it significantly increased on the counties level. Recent 7-day PCR tests incidence per capita served as a good proxy for antigen test positivity. Positivity of non-residents was higher than of residents when mass testing was offered only in municipalities with the highest positivity in previous rounds. Reduction in positivity in repeated testing increased with the positivity in the earlier round. Our results contribute to better understanding of pandemic data, an