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How immunity from and interaction with seasonal coronaviruses can shape SARS-CoV-2 epidemiology

Cross-protection from seasonal epidemics of human coronaviruses (HCoVs) has been hypothesized to contribute to the relative sparing of children during the early phase of the pandemic. Testing this relies on understanding the prepandemic age distribution of recent HCoV infections, but little is known about their dynamics. Using England and Wales as a case study, we use a transmission model to estimate the duration of immunity to seasonal coronaviruses, and show how cross-protection could have affected the age distribution of susceptibility during the first wave, and could alter SARS-CoV-2 transmission patterns over the coming decade. ....

United Kingdom , United States , City Of , Jamesd Munday , Rosannac Barnard , Katherinee Atkins , Fabienne Krauer , Rachel Lowe , Yalda Jafari , Akira Endo , Mark Jit , Damienc Tully , Gwenanm Knight , Kiesha Prem , Matthew Quaife , Annam Foss , Thibaut Jombart , Adamj Kucharski , C Julian Villabona , David Hodgson , Amy Gimma , Simonr Procter , Kevin Van Zandvoort , Fiona Yueqian Sun , Mihaly Koltai , Samuel Clifford ,

mass rapid antigen testing in Slovakia


mass rapid antigen testing in Slovakia
Abstract
Mass antigen testing in Slovakia conducted in October and November 2020 is a source of important data. We perform its statistical analysis and study epidemic geographical patterns. We observe exponentially distributed test positivity and exponential trends in its geographical distribution, and its approximately 10 km spatial characteristic correlation length.
A small correlation between positivity in two consecutive testing rounds appeared on the municipalities level but it significantly increased on the counties level.
Recent 7-day PCR tests incidence per capita served as a good proxy for antigen test positivity. Positivity of non-residents was higher than of residents when mass testing was offered only in municipalities with the highest positivity in previous rounds. Reduction in positivity in repeated testing increased with the positivity in the earlier round. Our results contribute to better understanding of pa ....

Slovak Republic , United Kingdom , Katharine Sherratt , Sebastian Funk , Kevin Van Zandvoort , Stefan Flasche , Sam Abbott , Royal Society Grant , Royal Society , Global Challenges Research Fund , Melinda Gates Foundation , Hc Programme , Health Protection Research Unit For Immunisation , United Kingdom Public Health Rapid Support Team , United Kingdom Department Of Health , European Union Horizon , United Kingdom National Institute For Health Research , Wellcome Trust Epidemic Preparedness Coronavirus , Nakajima Foundation , National Institute For Health Research , Elrha Research For Health , Health Protection Research Unit For Modelling Methodology , Polymerase Chain Reaction , Slovak Minister , Sir Henry Dale Fellowship , Wellcome Trust ,