We are back with nick clark. Clark, associate professor at susquehanna university. What do polls say right now in this snapshot of time about where the race stands . Average thenes that different polls put Vice President biden ahead between roughly 4 and 6 . Frank then and marshall has a new poll this morning i think with some of the upper end of that trajectory. There are some single polls that give him more of an advantage. It is looking like biden as an advantage between 4 and 6 . Host is it enough to get out of the margin of error . Guest i believe so. On the high side the margin is around five point. Even if the Vice President were to come down a percentage point, that would be enough to do it. That is a high margin though. Most cases will be between 3 and five point. We will not know on Election Night because they will be ballots being counted for the days afterwards. It does look at the polls. If they are accurate, the Vice President will pull this off. Host 20 electoral votes a
President ial and congressional campaigns in North Carolina. More on North Carolina with tim directorDavid Mclennan of the Meredith Paul at Meredith College. With four days to go before the election, we ask you this morning, which candidate do you trust on the economy . If you are supporting the trumppence ticket, there is a line. If you are supporting the bidenharris ticket, another line. If you are supporting another candidate or you are undecided, a third line. You can also text us with your first name, city and state. Or, go to twitter and facebook. Com cspan to post your comments there. We will. Get your thoughts in just a minute lets begin with the president yesterday in florida making his pitch to voters they are on the economy. [video clip] you will have a crippling depression the likes of which you have never seen if sleepy joe becomes her president. Themour 401 k s, throw out the window because you know what is going to happen. Our stock market has a big headwind. If he wins,
The worst antisemitic attack on u. S. Soil in history. It happened in pittsburgh. That sparked a lot of calls for change to gun laws that never happened. That is different than the topic of talking about protecting the Second Amendment in the Rural Counties that matter so much. There is a lot of important Second Amendment here. That is clear. To help gun laws impacted the election, im not sure. There have been so many issues that have taken precedence in pennsylvania. You see it in poland all the time. Gun laws and gun control might have come up on those surveys. They are not right now. It is something that i dont have too much of a grasp on at this point. Host you can follow julian rouths reporting if you go to postgazette. Com. Thank you very much for your washington journal continues. Host we are back with nick clark, associate professor at susquehanna university. What do polls say right now in this snapshot of time about where the race stands . Average thenes that different polls p
As a learning opportunity for students. We have students involved in the process. We Contact People from North Carolina only. We started doing a statewide poll. Live caller with students being the callers. Now we do online and live caller. With covid because of restrictions we have on campus, we have had to temporarily go to online only. Almost everyienced method of survey people from North Carolina. Fare inw did your polls 2016 . What have you changed . Guest that is a great question. In 2016, the polling average had Hillary Clinton up by 3. 3 . We know that donald trump won the state. We were in the middle that. We recognized that something was wrong with our sampling. We tried to look at who really turned out versus what we were predicting . Theirllsters weight samples to try to predict what the turnout will be. We looked very carefully at that. We adjusted our turnout models based on 2016 and 2018 to get a more accurate model. We adjusted the questions in our survey to try to get a
Would be enough to do it. That is a high margin. Between threel be and five points. It pennsylvania it will be close. We will not know on Election Night because there will be ballots being counted for the days afterwards. If the polls are accurate, it looks like the Vice President will pull this off. Greta 20 electoral votes at stake. What role do you think the state will play in this election . Close, ifelection is the polls are wrong and none of the other states and play such as florida or North Carolina or arizona really are competitive, pennsylvania will decided. May not know the pennsylvania, we will know if it is close, it will come down to pennsylvania. Who dowhat about those not traditionally vote. How did vote in 2016 . What do we know about whether the candidates are getting them to show up this time around . We do expect are not to be higher. Pennsylvania typically has a higher turnout rate than the rest of the country but there are still between 30 and 40 of eligible voters