Would be enough to do it. That is a high margin. Between threel be and five points. It pennsylvania it will be close. We will not know on Election Night because there will be ballots being counted for the days afterwards. If the polls are accurate, it looks like the Vice President will pull this off. Greta 20 electoral votes at stake. What role do you think the state will play in this election . Close, ifelection is the polls are wrong and none of the other states and play such as florida or North Carolina or arizona really are competitive, pennsylvania will decided. May not know the pennsylvania, we will know if it is close, it will come down to pennsylvania. Who dowhat about those not traditionally vote. How did vote in 2016 . What do we know about whether the candidates are getting them to show up this time around . We do expect are not to be higher. Pennsylvania typically has a higher turnout rate than the rest of the country but there are still between 30 and 40 of eligible voters that are not turning up. President trump did mobilize new people to the polls last on and he may do so again this election. We are also getting evidence there are people voting for the first time for Vice President biden because they think the election as consequence and they are being motivated to turn out as well. I think both campaigns are probably focus more on turnout than they are trying to get new voters to the polls. There have been efforts to register new voters and the republicans have had some edge, but right now they are focused more on turnout with their own base of supporters. Credit what is your take on the Supreme Court yesterday ended their decision on pennsylvanias ballots . It obviously has consequence. It means the state can continue counting ballots received 13 days after the election. If the election is close, if the margin of error works in the president rubbing us favor and we see election with a ,ifference between 0 at 1 those additional ballots may make a difference and at this point in time the Supreme Courts Decision Support for mayinuing to doubt ballots seem to favor Vice President biden. I do not think that question is settled. If we get to november 4 and there is not a clear answer, there will continue to be legal challenges and the court may hear that decision again. Greta what are the rules in place in pennsylvania for a recount . Is within the margin that is roughly under 1 where there anand automatically automatic one. If it is anywhere close to 1 , likely we will see a recount. Greta where will you be watching on Election Night and why . There are some counties that flipped from blue to red in 2016 that could in fact flip back. Northampton county on the eastern side of the state, erie county on the northwest part of the state, those were all counties that were once blue and flipped. Two of them flipped back to blue and the 2018 midterm. There is a decent chance those could go back to blue. The county east of pittsburgh has traditionally been more republican but it did go blue in the midterm. You can see that coming back. County just west of philadelphia flipped and cumberland in the center. The map will look largely the same. Most of the counties that are red and blue are going to remain so. There are about five or six counties that could flip back. With the overall margins, everyone across the state, if the Vice President is able to the duke percent or 6 better in traditionally red counties, that could help make up the difference in 2016. Philadelphia, supporting the president. Good morning. Caller you are never going to change philadelphia and pittsburgh. They will always be democratic strongholds. That is consistent. What i think we will see in pennsylvania is, one, a lot of drum supporters will not come out and say it because there are Violence Toward drum supporters. People have had their homes damaged ande is a lot of violence negative sentiment toward drum supporters in general. However, what i think you will see an pennsylvania in the more rural or further suburban areas are people who do not want their counties to turn into the areas that are democratically run. For instance, i believe it was Lancaster County that had an incident where there was a Police Shooting at there were protests that almost turned into riots. Instead of turning into a full out riot, they charged every Single Person who was arrested and they are pushing them through the justice system. They are not letting them go or bailing them out. When we talk about law and order and what kind of administration to be want, i think it is very evident in pennsylvania when you see and those of more Rural Counties they put a quake quash two issues that arose. I think that speaks volumes. I think that is what we will see in the middle of pennsylvania. I think most ready counties will stay red. I think the law and order message the president is advancing and resonating with people are likely resonating with voters who have already decided they will support the president. There is not a lot of evidence it is changing anyones minds. I think it is resonating with people who are already convinced. The question is will it mobilize greater turnout . Are drum supporters going to be more likely to vote because they are concerned about law and order issues . I think it is already a highly mobilize group. They are already likely to turn out and vote. I suspect you are right. Thet the end of the day polls are wrong at pennsylvania stays red, that may be one of the explanations. Greta out confident are you in polling this time around . Nick i think we are in a different situation and we have more state polling. A lot of polling people were basing projections on back in 2016 were national polls. We did not have as many staples as we did now. There are more reliable indicators in each state. The polls have accounted for some of the errors and that they had in 2016. G thewere not weightin preferences of demographics are likely to support the president and we are seeing that now. I am fairly confident because of differences that make up the polling methodology that the polls may be more accurate and we saw that in 2018. They were far more accurate. Greta the demographics. What are those voters saying now. Nick that is College Educated and that Group Remains articularly white men without College Education. We have seen some movement on women without a College Education. Whereas at that particular group supported the president in 2016 points it iso 20 basically even between President Trump and joe biden between that group right now. That group does firmly remain in the president s cap and there are a lot of white voters without a College Education in pennsylvania which is part of what makes it a swing state. , florida, phyllis, supporting the president. Thank you. Caller i now live in florida and i have 82, so i have an overall viewpoint, but i am an avid drum supporter because i watched him as i was growing up in philadelphia and what she could have done a new york when no one else could because i did work in new york for a while. As far as the university of , sylvania at the university of pennsylvania law school. Biden has, what do they call , a big fond of the university of pennsylvania and i do not know whether jeevan went there but the Chinese People gave him that money. My father would be turning over in his grave. Pittsburgh, it is booming. Is absolutely totally booming. My son immediately almost may be within a year got 860 500 raise. 6,500 raise. Anyone who says trump did not do this or that or lies. Nobody ever tells you what it the like he told. Greta let me pick up on what you said. Are people saying they are better off in pennsylvania than they were four years ago . Nick i do not think so. I am not sure the president supporters are saying that. They still look at the president is the one who can improve that situation. Kids message in 2016 was around change. He is trying to repeat that message even though he is coming up as an incumbent. His supporters are going along with it. He thinks a lot of what is still wrong with this country are beyond the president s control but by reelecting him he may be able to make the country better. ,reta what about independents nonvoters, swing voters . Independents and swing voters are looking more like democrats who are saying it is not better off, it is worse off. There is dramatic need for change and they do not look to the president as the one to deliver that. They look at him as responsible for the situation. It is roughly in the high 80s low 90s of democrats. I think it is amongst 60s in independents. Greta jerry, you were calling. Caller i heard the individual caller from michigan, a couple of towns over from where i live. I heard his comments. Then i heard the philadelphia caller , the lady, and she started screaming and ranting and raving, do not tell us how to do things. Us, wethe tv is lying to are turning it on and seeing the riots and the businesses being burned to the ground we do know what is going on in philadelphia and we have a right to view our own opinion. What is happening in philadelphia and a lot of other big cities that are democratically controlled are being destroyed. I am a lifelong democrat myself. I have gotten to the point where i am frustrated. Ballots. We cast our even when Bernie Sanders one clinton got the superdelegates. I have been listening to the background conversations on here on hold. I am leaning strongly toward the president of the united states. When i hear people blaming them for different things, the cost of living has gone up. Part of that is because of this pandemic. How is the president responsible for that . They need to take responsibility for their own actions and stop blaming like the one lady said. They keep saying Donald Trumps line but they will not tell us what the law is. Florida, supporting the former Vice President. Caller i was wanting to make a comment about the fracking. I note that is a big issue in pennsylvania, and i am not sure if they are aware, fracking is so dependent on the price of oil around the world right now there is an oil war going on between russia and saudi arabia, so fracking is off the table. It is too expensive to do. To be complaining about what biden thinks about that is kind of irrelevant. Greta charles, let me leave it there and get nick clarks perspective and doesnt alienate voters, the Vice President comments on it . Nick i think so many voters already have their minds made up it is unlikely to have an effect. It doesnt resonate with pennsylvania voters because it fracking is a big part of the pennsylvania economy. It helps create a lot of jobs and fuel, additional revenue into the local economy and state economy. The issue itself does resonate with voters, but i am not convinced it is moving the dialogue and terms of the likely outcome. Nick i think most people have their minds made up. At this point in 2016 there were still about 12 of voters still undecided. Genuinely undecided and they tended to break in the president s faber a few days before the election. At this moment and even earlier we are looking at 4 or 5 of voters who are still genuinely undecided. Those, they are probably already leaning a particular direction. It is hard to imagine fracking issues affecting more than half of the people. Greta the president and Vice President are holding dueling Campaign Rallies today in tampa. The president will be there at 1 30 p. M. Eastern time. We will have coverage of the or onright here cspan. Org or listen on the go with the free cspan radio app and in the evening time, joe biden will be there at 630 todd p. M. Eastern time. You can watch it here and on our website and the radio i. John, and hampton, virginia, charles,g the florida, supporting the former Vice President. Donna, and hampton, virginia. Caller i am having fun with your phone calls. Trying to get through is a nightmare. Bit of an issue there. Caller the girl said you had some bad weather. I am wondering what you dont have an independent line anymore. That is the one i should be calling lender. I have a couple of comments for your guest. Memberseveral family who are going to vote for trump for one good reason. Their 401 k s have gone through the roof. They are very happy he is in office and they will be elected. Familyhave at least six members in the medical field in several different states read one is a director of a big hospital in tallahassee. Mps across from washington state. The covid thing is wore out and that is what the democrats are counting on to carry them through to election day and it is not. They have no issues in their hospitals. Nicksi want to get perspective on health care, aca, and how that is impacting this race in pennsylvania. Nick i think of it is impacting the race everywhere. Unless the president among supportersnt trivia you find people who think the pandemic is salient or somehow over and we are over it. Most voters are not seeing the same reality. They think the pandemic is very much ongoing. They are concerned about how the federal government is responding to that, so i do not think it is a given that every independent voter is going to flip from President Trump to Vice President biden because of this. I think overall the issue is probably bent a plus for Vice President biden. Greta nate, rhode island. Caller i was calling in part because i note gerrymandering is an issue that pennsylvania as to deal with like in wisconsin. In 2018, trump supported gerrymandering, which is basically rigged elections. One thing i was going to ask about both on that issue on taking away peoples freedom when it comes to state elections , likees pennsylvania wisconsin, still have a gerrymandered state legislature that is not responsive to voters and is undermining the governors effort potentially like wisconsin to deal with coronavirus, because we have had problems with that. Nick i say i think first of all gerrymandering is something both parties have engaged in. Does i agree it can and work against democratic intentions, it is not something uniquely in the province of republicans. Democrats have done it as well, most currently in annoyed. Pennsylvania like wisconsin as been dealing with this. Redrawn by ae court order. There are three republican held districts in pennsylvania. 12 and 2018. The districts were state house of republican districts flipped in 2018. State house representatives have remained largely intact. I dont think we have seen a lot of effort the area to redraw them. There is some gerrymandering going on there. That has been to the benefit of republicans at the statehouse. I dont think it is unique to the Republican Party in pennsylvania or anywhere else. Host undecided, ned . Caller hi. It is getting interesting out there. The whole fracking thing getting worked out there in pennsylvania, the industry is actually shifting over to start using geothermal technology. Hopefully that might have that might affect peoples voting outcome if that is an issue for them. I wanted to bring one thing up you are not talking about. I think we need to focus on with the pandemic surging in all the hospitals across the nation going to be overwhelmed with facilities, we are under attack from russian Cyber Attacks going on targeting our Health Care Infrastructure across the nation. Host i will go on to john in pennsylvania supporting the Vice President. Caller yes. I am a registered republican for more than 20 years. I am a never trumper. In 2016, Hillary Clinton was able to win chester county. Obama did not win chester county. It seemed like there was a big shift in chester county. I wondering how much of this antitrump is coming from philadelphia. From the united states, donald j. Trump. Greenwoods proud to be an american playing]
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