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“I threw my phone from the roof, and it broke. I guess airplane mode wasn’t working.” Plenty of folks will be traveling soon. Here’s some trivia for tomorrow at the dinner table! (One wonders if residential lending is heading in this direction) … But there are only 12 passenger airlines in the United States. That’s up from 10 just a few years ago but down from about 80 airlines at the peak industry in the 1980s due to a series of bankruptcies and mergers. Four of those companies (Delta, United, American, and Southwest) control 80 percent of the market, with the remaining 20 percent being low-budget airlines that are increasingly struggling. The average airline fare has declined 13 percent over the past year, and that’s been causing issues for the companies that specialize in lower fares, as many of their customers are now seeing the big guys as more accessible than before. (Today’s podcast can be found here, sponsored by Candor. C
Overheard last night at a bar here in Austin, Texas: “It’s hotter than the hinges to the gates of hell.” Not so hot, as residential lenders know, are volume and mortgage rates (which some believe may drift down during the final five months of 2023). No one can predict interest rates with any degree of accuracy or confidence, so originators should optimize the current situation with the cards they have been dealt, which aren’t always good. Speaking of which, an owner of a non-bank lender who was doing $40 million a month a few years ago and who is now doing $10 million a month wrote, “Rob, are you hearing that, in the acquisition of a lender, that all the premium is gone, and that deals are comprised of just an earn out over 2-3 years?” Yes, I am hearing that, for lenders doing $10 million a month. But every deal is different, and for companies that were doing $80 million a month and are now doing $30 million, then there might still be a premium
“I used to be indecisive. Now I'm not so sure.” Management teams at lenders and vendors can’t be indecisive in this environment. Who’s going to be right, come Q4 of this year, and Q1 of 2023, which many believe are going to be extremely painful as the purchase market seasonally slows. Are the cuts lenders are making now enough to show warehouse lenders and broker-dealers profitable months and quarters? News continues to hit the tape, including Russia’s first default on debt since 1918. As mentioned in Saturday’s commentary, last week we had the FGMC (First Guarantee) big layoffs/closure of its correspondent and wholesale divisions. There was JPMorgan’s mortgage-related layoffs. That said, what makes headlines these days should be lenders and vendors who aren’t laying people off rather than those that are. How about lenders, servicers, and asset holders watching the Florida (“The Plywood State”) homeowner