Everyone is watching the value of their 401(k) plan go down. You should be watching it go down from “across the pond,” sitting at a sidewalk café in Paris. Anyone traveling in Europe is rejoicing at the exchange rate: Things are more affordable for American tourists this summer, with the exchange rate between the euro and the dollar now about equal. It's the first time since 2002 (in the early years of the euro's existence) that the ratio came close to 1:1, but could come at a cost of global economic stability. The Fed is on track to continue hiking interest rates by 75 bps per meeting to conquer inflation, in comparison to the European Central Bank, which is still hesitant to get too aggressive. EU recession fears are more pronounced than they are in the U.S., especially given the grim energy outlook and the shutting of the Nord Stream 1 pipeline for annual maintenance. (We all have a chance at listening to the MBA’s Dr. Mike Fratantoni di
“I used to be indecisive. Now I'm not so sure.” Management teams at lenders and vendors can’t be indecisive in this environment. Who’s going to be right, come Q4 of this year, and Q1 of 2023, which many believe are going to be extremely painful as the purchase market seasonally slows. Are the cuts lenders are making now enough to show warehouse lenders and broker-dealers profitable months and quarters? News continues to hit the tape, including Russia’s first default on debt since 1918. As mentioned in Saturday’s commentary, last week we had the FGMC (First Guarantee) big layoffs/closure of its correspondent and wholesale divisions. There was JPMorgan’s mortgage-related layoffs. That said, what makes headlines these days should be lenders and vendors who aren’t laying people off rather than those that are. How about lenders, servicers, and asset holders watching the Florida (“The Plywood State”) homeowner