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This morning, at the beginning of the third quarter of 2022, I learned about this morsel: The most common national holiday around the world is independence from the British! That aside, this morning I decided to start the 2nd half of 2022 with a healthy, low-cal breakfast: oatmeal. So I found the Quaker Oats, and began boiling. Then I gathered up the butter, pecans, chocolate chips, milk, maple syrup, banana, shredded coconut… where was I going with this? Oh yeah, food and learning. Real estate agent relationships are vital in the mortgage industry, especially for purchase-heavy shops. In hot markets, agents tend to already have established relationships with brokers or lenders, so some LOs are using food and learning. They are offering either breakfast treats with a baker, or happy hour wine tasting with a local wine expert, to local real estate agents, financial planners, contractors, divorce attorneys, whoever, with 20-30 minutes of mingling and then a 10–15-minute pre ....
“Looking out at the road rushing under my wheels… Looking back at the years gone by like so many summer fields.” Yes, at the end of today we’re halfway through with 2022 (already). Time passes, hair styles, relationships, people, pandemics, and companies come and go. (Today’s joke has to do with the passing of time.) History is made and remembered. Woody Williams, the last surviving WWII Medal of Honor recipient (Iwo Jima), died yesterday at 98, as did Hells Angel founder Sonny Barger. When was the last time COVID made the headlines? Yesterday the Commentary noted, “Remember names like AmeriLoan, Countrywide, PNC, WaMu, Home Savings of America, Fleet, Great Western, World Savings, Associates, Nat City?” My apologies to PNC, and the many who wrote in, saying that it is alive and well. Business cycles are alive and well: With rates escalating higher and the home price appreciation that has taken place, buyer interest has rapidly deteriorat ....
We’re all trying to save a few pennies. We have the increase in postal rates coming soon and perhaps pick up a roll, or ten, of Forever Stamps. It’s not like they have an expiration date, unlike, apparently, lenders. Remember names like AmeriLoan, Countrywide, PNC, WaMu, Home Savings of America, Fleet, Great Western, World Savings, Associates, Nat City? “We are writing to share an update on ’s efforts to address significant, unexpected, and unprecedented economic pressures facing the entire mortgage market. As you know, the mortgage market faces mounting macroeconomic challenges, including increasing concerns about the availability and cost of credit, the end of the refinance boom, the systemic impact of inflation and geopolitical issues, and reduced demand for purchase money mortgages. As part of our efforts to address these challenges, will no longer purchase correspondent loans… We value our relationship with you and appreciate your pati ....
You can rest assured that no animals were harmed in the making of this commentary! But the harm felt by stockholders during the last several months has not been trivial, and not only confined to lenders. As has been discussed in this Commentary, just because the open market can see their stock prices fall doesn’t mean those companies are faring any worse, or better, than non-public companies. And other companies in related industries have not fared much better. For example, Redfin (a full-service real estate brokerage that owns lender Bay Equity) hit a high of over $95 a share and hit a low a few weeks ago of $7.13. Put another way, if you had sunk your life savings of $1 million into Redfin stock in February of 2021 your life savings would stand at $75,000. Ouch. The speed and magnitude of the rate move in 2022 has hurt many, but to keep things in perspective remember that the highest interest rates were in October 1981, a whopping 18.45 percent. Fortunately, no one is talking ....
“I used to be indecisive. Now I'm not so sure.” Management teams at lenders and vendors can’t be indecisive in this environment. Who’s going to be right, come Q4 of this year, and Q1 of 2023, which many believe are going to be extremely painful as the purchase market seasonally slows. Are the cuts lenders are making now enough to show warehouse lenders and broker-dealers profitable months and quarters? News continues to hit the tape, including Russia’s first default on debt since 1918. As mentioned in Saturday’s commentary, last week we had the FGMC (First Guarantee) big layoffs/closure of its correspondent and wholesale divisions. There was JPMorgan’s mortgage-related layoffs. That said, what makes headlines these days should be lenders and vendors who aren’t laying people off rather than those that are. How about lenders, servicers, and asset holders watching the Florida (“The Plywood State”) homeowner ....