If you are talking about a way for us to actually win and not just bust the blue wall, you are assuming we are winning states that mitt romney and john mccain both lost to president obama including iowa, ohio and florida. Of course North Carolina the first time. Heres the important thing and momentum and enthusiasm matter. In addition us closing the gap from 12 points to being ahead or being tied. By the way, let me ask you this. Have you had a poll move 13 points in a week . Have you had a poll move 13 points in a week . That you didnt wonder something must be wrong with the poll. Im not wondering at all. We cant play that game. I cant have your network calling the race over because of the abc News Washington post moving and say that may not have been right. I didnt hang my hat on that
poll then or now. A lot of people in your network did. I want to make the point that the lines are clearly going in our direction and i think the most fascinating numbers in abc washington poll are not
if you are talking about a way for us to actually win and not just bust the blue wall, you are assuming we are winning states that mitt romney and john mccain both lost to president obama including iowa, ohio and florida. of course north carolina the first time. here s the important thing and momentum and enthusiasm matter. in addition us closing the gap from 12 points to being ahead or being tied. by the way, let me ask you this. have you had a poll move 13 points in a week? have you had a poll move 13 points in a week? that you didn t wonder something must be wrong with the poll. i m not wondering at all. we can t play that game. i can t have your network calling the race over because of the abc news washington post moving and say that may not have been right. i didn t hang my hat on that
100% and early vote kicks in, i think you may see clinton move up. the other big difference in the poll and why cnn doesn t use our poll, rather than asking a different sample every week, we go, we have a panel about 3200 people. we go to them every week and ask the same questions. so as a result, when you see the poll move, you know it s people actually changing their minds rather than just a difference of who answers the poll one week to the other. understood. the risk if i misstated this at the outset, you said obama would win by $3. 3.32% and he won by 3.85. i am fascinated by your poll and i ll keep watching it on a day-to-day basis. david lauder, thanks. now columbia professor gelman. you are the stats guy.