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100% and early vote kicks in, i think you may see clinton move up. the other big difference in the poll and why cnn doesn t use our poll, rather than asking a different sample every week, we go, we have a panel about 3200 people. we go to them every week and ask the same questions. so as a result, when you see the poll move, you know it s people actually changing their minds rather than just a difference of who answers the poll one week to the other. understood. the risk if i misstated this at the outset, you said obama would win by $3. 3.32% and he won by 3.85. i am fascinated by your poll and i ll keep watching it on a day-to-day basis. david lauder, thanks. now columbia professor gelman. you are the stats guy. ....