if you are talking about a way for us to actually win and not just bust the blue wall, you are assuming we are winning states that mitt romney and john mccain both lost to president obama including iowa, ohio and florida. of course north carolina the first time. here's the important thing and momentum and enthusiasm matter. in addition us closing the gap from 12 points to being ahead or being tied. >> by the way, let me ask you this. have you had a poll move 13 points in a week? have you had a poll move 13 points in a week? that you didn't wonder something must be wrong with the poll. >> i'm not wondering at all. we can't play that game. i can't have your network calling the race over because of the abc news "washington post" moving and say that may not have been right. >> i didn't hang my hat on that poll then or now. >> a lot of people in your network did. i want to make the point that the lines are clearly going in our direction and i think the most fascinating numbers in abc washington poll are not the horse race numbers and they show hillary clinton's unfavorable ratings are high and donald trump is trusted more than she is by the american voter and most importantly, something we have talked about, the attribute that goes to empathy and compassion with voters and the question of who cares more about people like you. clinton and trump were tied on that. that's remarkable and all the trends are going our way. job creation and politicians. that plays well in the upper midwest. you concerned that you go to wisconsin and you go to nevada and joe heck, the senate candidate has not decided what he is going to do. new hampshire is another state thaw brought up. i'm going to can the question. are you concerned that you may come up short and in new hampshi hampshire. three of the leading republicans and in each of those places may be holding you back somewhat. >> and whose fault will that be? mr. trump endorsed kelly ayotte and endorsed john mccain and has been gracious. he has done his part to unify the party by becoming president. >> you don't think he could have done more? >> it's time for republicans to come home. i like governor pence's message. mr. trump went to wisconsin for a great event with senator johnson and governor walker. anyway, i wanted to say this to you. for a president trump to have a republican senate. like missouri and north carolina where donald trump is ahead of the senate candidates and in terms of the gubernatorial candidates, trump is ahead of the republican gubernatorial candidates in indiana, missouri and new hampshire. >> one final question. in the early vote on one hand we have seen good news on your side depending on the racial make up and good news on different make ups. there is one part of this that to me doesn't look good for your side. while african-american turn out may be down, hispanic turn out is on the way to record breaking. how much does that concern you in. >> it all concerns me because that's my job. we top the make sure we invested early in the absentee ballot and early voting. if you have to go through the budget and decide where to put your resources, we like the early returns that we are getting in the states where we are on par or ahead of where governor romney was in terms of early returns. we are keeping a close eye on that, but you have the states like pennsylvania and new hampshire which are day of voting. there is absentee voting of course. you will see mr. trump and governor pence in those states. we are happy with what we see with requests for absentee ballots. >> do you acknowledge that the hispanic vote is on the way to a record high, did that make it more difficult some. >> not necessarily. there will be millions of votes cast in florida and we feel good about mitt romney got 27% and a little bit better in florida. a lot of voters would surprise you and the number of people who are excited about the trump message with job creation and renegotiating deals and make us more safe and prosperous. people of all backgrounds want change. there is only one clear choice. >> i have to ask you this. there was an incident today that some supporter of donald trump's yelled at the media pen a pretty horrific thing. take a listen. >> you are an embarrassment. >> the guy yelled you sell out for a few scheckles. you were asked about the jew sa chant that he had. donald trump is not doing this, but it is surfacing supporters with a lot of anti-semitic rhetoric. what is your campaign doing? >> it is not a lot and i would not be part of this campaign and you know it. >> it keeps showing up. >> in arizona -- >> it keeps showing up. >> the first amendment right. you can sound like a fool and hear people sound that way every day. the fact is that in the case of arizona, i checked the with the head of security and he plus the guys on the ground in arizona tell me they removed that protester. i didn't hear that covered in the news or whatever he is saying idiotic things that do not reflect the campaign or the candida candidacy. donald trump said he will be the president of all people and even those who don't agree with him. >> with the outbursts like. that. i think she is corrupt and lied and you should criminal investigation. >> the rhetoric that has been thrown at the media, i have been experienced it in ways i have never experienced about. >> i'm donald trump's campaign manager and i don't appreciate the death threats. >> it's not fun to have a death threat. >> i get it completely and think everybody should tone it down. that includes everybody. i am yet to hear hillary clinton distance herself from the antipolice rhetoric. she ignores it like she didn't hear it. >> six more days and six very, very long days. >> i will see you victory night. be our guests. see you victory night. >> joy reed is host of msnbc. kasie hunt. a slew of new polls and the post important is wisconsin. donald trump's path still has to breakthrough the blue wall of the industrial midwest. when you look at the three states, wisconsin, michigan, pennsylvania. romney and mccain went searching for them and here comes donald trump. they realize i can win all the toss ups and not get there. >> in wisconsin, it is the market et poll. the good track record. plus six. clinton and romney won the state by seven. >> even obama won by seven. >> wishful thinking in retrospect. you say it looks like 2012. the other thing is what ron johnson is behind and the senator and republican by only a point. the polls can be off within a poll and the comparisons are real because it's the same people. ron johnson is running five points ahead. that toll me that are johnson had a nice come back. >> that are is probably max. the five-point marker is as good as it gets for the candidate running above trump. >> the fact that trump predicted that he will be five points behind. >> what's interesting now, you are a michigan native and say keep your eye on michigan. he's another that has been saying you guys don't know what's happening here. trump can carry really well in the midwest. we haven't seen the cracks yet. it's hard to believe it is closer. >> i think it's possible that there is a surprise lurking in michigan and we are not picking up on it. if there is an x factor in polling where white working class voter who is voted democrat in the past and are excited to vote for trump. that has been the question mark all the way along. some of this is my sense for having covered bernie on the ground. i had republicans raise flags about it and at least one democrat who tried to raise flags in the past and vanish wrong. still it seems to be a place that has come up with for repeatedly. there could be something going on. >> there is a reason of nervousness in team clinton. not about michigan, but what it takes to win. they need a good turn out and overall early vote has shown maybe african-americans turn out. that doesn't help you in michigan and wisconsin. >> that doesn't help you. it still exists and the reason democrats had the white whales. >> republicans have them. >> you and bill both. >> the reality is that pennsylvania, wisconsin and michigan will go democrat and keep going democrat because those big cities. those big urban centers go for the democrats and the suburbs go for the democrats and you have a state like ohio and the reason they are more viable is you have a smaller african-american population. whether or not you have the robust turn out when the first black president and the reelect happened. you can't compare that. barack obama running in 8 and 12, the first black president potential existing. you are never going to get that back. >> i keep wondering i should we use 2012? >> not quite. it may be too long away. >> we go back to 2000 which is a generic race and michigan, i believe it was like plus 4. it's not as democratic as people think. who was the governor? detroit is a lot smaller. >> you know what michigan is lacking and what pennsylvania has and ohio has. it's big suburban centers with a lot of well educated white voters. they are not voting for donald trump at the moment and that exists to a lesser degree in michigan. >> oakland county by the way, a county that used to be a republican county is likely going to end up voting for her. >> two non-college whites in the congress. >> you have to remember that when they talk about the suburbs in the 80s and 90s. now what you are seeing is a lot of african-americans and a lot of others are moving out and it's the city that is expensive. gentrification is pushing a lot of af kanch americrican-america. they have college educated white voters and nonwhite voters. ohio has less of all of that and they have the largest non-college educated white populations and an ache% white population. trump can win ohio, but not michigan. >> something we are starring to stumble into the result and may throw up a bunch of cnn polls and they have problems with the nevada numbers. let me throw them up. really said don't believe the numbers and the clark county split is so wrong which it is. the florida poll looks like what others look like. pennsylvania and cnn has at four. that would surprise people and clinton had 48 and 44. arizona with 49 and 44. taken together it is starting to look like 2012. all together. >> here's the funny thing. it is an extraordinary year. it is extraordinary. a week from now if you looked at the results, it can look like an ordinary race. the democrat could win and the senate could be democrat and the republicans might hold the house and it would be an interesting question if we were all too call the up in the drama and we had an ordinary election. >> we didn't have an ordinary election and may have stumbled on an ordinary result. i think the martians could be confused. >> you get to that because they are shifting underneath. white women shifting and a higher i hhispanic turn out. >> this will be important november 9th as we unpack the election. we look into the states and the map will look within the states. you guys are sticking around. coming up, trump and the establishment and how the grass roots movement stumped the elites. how the filmmaker is warning about what could come next. live in studio next. stay tuned. new bikes aren't selling guys... what are we gonna do? how about we pump more into promotions? ♪ nah. what else? what if we hire more sales reps? ♪ nah. what else? what if we digitize the whole supply chain? so people can customize their bike before they buy it. that worked better than expected. i'll dial it back. yeah, dial it back. just a little. live business, powered by sap. when you run live, you run simple. but dad, you've got...tes are probably gonna double. allstate. with accident forgiveness they guarantee your rates won't go up just because of an accident. smart kid. indeed. it's good to be in, good hands. teachers, nurses and firefightes support prop 51. prop 51 will upgrade libraries, science labs, and classroom technology and relieve school overcrowding creating more opportunity . . . and better learning for students help students succeed vote yes on 51. want a great way to help our children thrive? then be sure to vote yes on proposition 55. prop 55 doesn't raise taxes on anyone. instead, it simply maintains the current tax rate on the wealthiest californians to prevent education cuts that would hurt our kids. no wonder prop 55 is endorsed by the california pta, teachers and educators. because all of us want to help our children thrive. it's time to vote yes on proposition 55. teachers, firefighters and nurss support prop 51. prop 51 repairs older schools and removes dangerous lead paint and pipes ensuring classrooms are safe for all students. for safe schools vote yes on 51. he said clinton's e-mail saga is enough to get her impeached democrats are hoping to keep fine gold on top and it will be tough for democrats to take back the senate without flipping wisconsin. up next, filmmaker michael moore talks with me about trump's grass roots appeal. ♪ [beeping] take on any galaxy with a car that could stop for you. simulation complete. the new nissan rogue. rogue one: a star wars story. in theaters december 16th. military failure and success, incumbent charisma and challenger charisma. on six of these measure, the white house goes to trump. the professor said trump can start measuring with six days to go. he is sticking to that prediction and hasn't been wrong in the last eight presidential elections. he is a professor of history in american university and he is correctly predicted the results of every presidential election using this matrix since 1984. i will say i know you are not a supporter of donald trump and i think you ran as a democrat back in the day. what is it and what is the missing seventh key for hillary clinton that your system says is going to keep her from the white house. >> all right. you have gone through the keys and you are right. my predictions are nonpartisan. ninth predictions. five democrats and four republicans. you can't be more nonpartisan about that. they took a pasting in the mid-terms. incumbency since obama is not running. third party. gary johnson is polling way above what any libertarian has done. he might be fading and the lack of policy change given the gridlock in the second obama term. it goes term boy term and the lack of a big splashy foreign policy success in the second term like dispatching bid laden and number six the fact that hillary clinton is not a once in a generation charismatic candidate like a kennedy. i never hedged a prediction. >> it sounds like you might hedge. >> you want to hear it? >> let's hear the hedge. >> i'm not locking at a crystal ball and i'm not ben carson. i'm basing my predictions on history. and they go all the way back to 1860. in donald trump we may well have a history-smashing candidate who so much of the american people regard as unfit for the presidency who have done a dozen things that would have driven any other candidate out of the race. when herman cain was in the nomination, that drove him out of the race. donald trump has been accused of sexual harassment by 12 woman and openly bragged about assaulting women and continues on. he is the only candidate ever to question the peaceful transfer of power. he could break the pattern. >> he can break the pattern, but there is a chance that hillary clinton basically gets this last key and it goes to the third party. what is your level, what is the level on your key for a third? the collective 30 party vote and at a 5% frethreshold and that mt be the that might flip it for you if it did fade? >> check, as usual you are right on point. obviously we don't know what gary johnson is going to poll. it's just gary johnson. my typical methodology they will use is to take the highest polling numbers for a third party and cut it in half. that worked invariably. gary johnson was polling about 13%. he is about 6 or 6.5. and it shows he is in decline. i don't know what gary johnson is going to do ultimately. i am not going to change my predictions before the election. >> if he ends up less than five, that's one less key and that would mean what? your system works and clinton wins? >> the system works if clinton wins. that's right. >> we will be waiting to see and maybe it's all about gary johnson's number to find out the future of your keys. anyway. always good to see you, sir. >> same here, chuck. >> still ahead, michael moore joins me in his new movie trumpland and whether the nation can come together after this devicive election. stay tuned. eyes open? good. because it's here. cue the confetti. say hi to xiidra, lifitegrast ophthalmic solution. xiidra is the first prescription eye drop solution approved to treat the signs and symptoms of dry eye. so give your eye doctor a ring, and your eyes just might thank you. one drop in each eye, twice a day. the most common side effects of xiidra include eye irritation, discomfort or blurred vision when the drops are applied to the eyes, and an unusual taste sensation. to help avoid eye injury or contamination of the solution, do not touch the container tip to your eye or any surface. if you wear contact lenses, remove them before using xiidra and wait for at least 15 minutes before placing them back in your eyes. are you ready to do something about your dry eyes? 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(laughs) wow. and you don't have to wait until black friday. find your tag and get 20% cash back, or, get 0% financing for 72 months on select remaining 2016 silverado double cabs in stock. find new roads at your local chevy dealer. business worldwide. filmmaker michael moore has been warning about a trump ground swell for months. now moore has a new documentary about michael moore in trumpland. it is part soliloquy and part focus group. he speaks to a theater full of trump and clinton supporters in ohio and sets out to see if there is such thing as middle ground to be found between the groups of voters. >> every beaten down nameless forgotten working person who used to be part of the middle class loves trump. he is the human molotov cocktail they have been waiting for. the human hand grenade they can legally throw into the system that stole their lives with them. >> who are doesn't like the supreme court system on gay marriage. you don't support it. anybody else? sir, then don't get gay married. right? >> michael moore joins me now. i have to say i loved the idea of what hyou had to do. it is what the two candidates should be doing and what many in the media should be spending more time doing. you put them together. how did they interact? >> people were with each other. that room was about a 30 trump people, one half hillary and the others were not going to vote. >> why do they trust you? >> i am them in that way. i am trump's demographic. an angry white guy over 35. on that level. >> you would like to throw a molotov cocktail at washington. >> yes, i have known that feeling. let's blow this up and start over. not violently, of course. i understand mainly because my friends who lost their jobs and the people who suffered some of them for decades because it started in the 80s, i understand why they are angry and i understand why they want to do that. if i can bring them in the room, maybe there was common ground and maybe i can convince them to not use the ballot next tuesday as an anger management exercise. >> we played the gay marriage excerpt not because you pointed to a couple of people who raised their hand. nobody really did. i feel as if one way we will look back on this election and it's the end of another long time strategist and he believes this too. our divide had been social issue based and we are seeing the year that trade shakes up both parties. do you think we are headed to a new divide based on and this is the end of the cultural wars. a lot of liberals are saying after the election even if hillary wins, the other side. >> there are pockets on both sides. >> the big issues are over. they are not going to go to the map on gay marriage or pro choice. that's over. that's good. we are moving into the future now. the issues are going to be economic-based. does the government help me as a working person, as a family member or are they more concerned about wall street? trump has been able to speak to people i know when he goes after hillary for the peaches to goldman sachs or against ford motor and say if you build the cars in mexico, we will put a tariff on them. >> there are obama trump voters. mostly they thought mitt romney didn't understand their problems and didn't identify. the same people who voted obama in iowa will vote clinton. do you think there are enough in michigan. that will flip iowa. are there enough of those guys in michigan? >> i think and i want to warn everybody, do not trust these numbers. look, i'm in michigan. on the morning of the primary in march, all the polls on this network and all the networks, everybody missed bernie. they have 8 to 25 points and she lost 12 hours later. i think that there is so much despair in the state and so much anger at the system and when people hear clinton, they hear bush. when they hear bush, they hear clinton. that has been their life and that's the system. he has been able to manipulate and it's a conjob to my friends and people i know in michigan who are thinking of voting for him. i am not sleeping basically because i'm spending this week and last week in these brexit states and talking to people in michigan and ohio and pennsylvania. >> it's interesting that you call them brexit states. >> the angry used to be the middle class and now they are people that work two jobs and are struggling to get by. >> if hillary clinton is elected, what's your advice to her on connecting with this? whoever wins has to reach out to this angry other side. if she wins, does she have this theater? should she have a theater of just trump supporters? >> she will win them over because what she does is all things that help them. she will make sure that the women are paid the same as men. she will support legislation that has a family leave and a paid maternity leave and support the things that help them. she will fix the pipes in flint so people are not drinking poison water. they will see that and go you know what, i saw it in the republican tone and i had trump people who said they will think about it. they didn't me they were voting for hillary, but he said you showed the picture of her holing that baby when she was out doing research on her health care plan and they said you made her look like a human being. she is a human being. a wonderful human being. >> her problem is she plays by her own set of rules that means she helps her friends before she helps me. >> the perception that the media created. she had been through so much abuse. she is thinking to herself, i want my private life to be private. it ended up exploiting and her favorite show is the good wife. i know everything about her. the opposite of what she wanted to happen, but people have to get a reality check. we are talking about e-mails versus everything that he is going to do to blow up the and wait until the president trump is elected. >> the way you tell the person, clinton, bush. clinton, bush. pick clinton over trump. they say oh, yeah, but bill clinton signed nafta. why should they believe that? >> you are picking the right clinton this time. you are picking the clinton. she is going to -- you find her a better clinton than bill. >> absolutely. no disrespect to him, but she is a woman who had to go through the first feminist of the 60s and 70s. she had to suffer. she walked through the fire. >> that are scar tissue is going to -- >> the memory of what it has been like to be the minority and be the person who has been harassed and attacked. all the things that is in donald trump, she lived that. she is going to sit in the oval office and the first thing on her mind every day is let's make sure we don't hurt anybody, especially the children and the family. the i totally believe that as someone who never voted for her. i'm a bernie voter. i'm excited to vote for her on tuesday. >> it's getting views. >> it's quite a few people are watching this. number still in the country. i'm stunned by it and happy. if people watch it, especially people thinking of not voting, that's the worst thing. if you are thinking of not voting. >> michael moore. >> thanks for having me in person. >> my politics sports obsession. wait until you see how i turn tonight's game seven into a very important election night-related issue. we'll be right back. >> game seven of the world series is tonight between the cubs and the indians. as predictable as any guy as a time cubs fan when she is not a yankees fan, clinton has every reason to root for the cubs. when the national league teams win game seven, the party in power holds the white house. the yankees won and so did are now. the same two results. the yankees and ike dominated the 50s. in 1960 it was the pittsburgh pirates who won that heart stopper and a democrat, jack ken see did the same. it was the national leg's cardinals in and linda johnson. the tigers won game and richard nixon took the white house. the oakland a's and all of their long hair and the american league won in seven and nixon in a landslide. there have been plenty of gamel the same year, believe its and plenty of presidential elections but never in the same year. so what do you do? i guess you hope history doesn't repeat itself. have a great time watching this game tonight. i know i am. well, if you want to sing out, sing out ♪ ♪ and if you want to be free, be free ♪ ♪ 'cause there's a million things to be ♪ ♪ you know that there are ♪ and if you want to be me, be me ♪ ♪ and if you want to be you, be you ♪ ♪ 'cause there's a million things to do ♪ ♪ you know that there are ♪ least the rage from pro trump. all these republicans, late. they went ten months without the trump tattoo and they're all going to the tattoo parlor going, yeah, put it on me. put on it me. is this a risk? are they hedging their bets? >> i think they're being foolish and a little cowardly. i think what happened is they were sort of comfortably sitting back. they were voting for trump and never talking about it. then the "access hollywood" video came out. there was that crazy weekend. not crazy, an appropriate in my response as saying i can no longer support trump. they had not imagined the deluge of activists. i'll just take back lash. 98% will vote republican at the end of the day and said, it went back the other way. now they just look silly. >> what good comes out of this for any of these late trump supporters if he doesn't win? >> i don't see any upside to be honest with you. >> i'm trying to find it. i didn't either but i was like, hey! >> i do think that a lot of these, they've always been in a difficult spot. john mccain is probably the best example of this. because for the most part, they've the republican base has been animated by trump. it is like you can't win with him or without him. what are you going to do? he has so far stuck to, he came out and stuck to, in the wake of that "access hollywood" tape. he has not flipped back. >> you're entitled to one flip and not two flips. that's my general rule in politics. >> he is farther ahead. >> i feel like nothing epitomizes this more than david saying i can't tell my 15-year-old daughter. look her in the eye. then gets outcurse of the fbi which i think caused a lot of republicans to think, wait a minute. this fbi thing might make trump win. so he scurried back on the trump train within 36 hours literally of the fbi thing. and marco rubio who has been on record saying that trump is dangerous. that he had no business having his finger near the button. then he flees to the trump side. do you know what he got? nothing. his poll numbers have flat lined. he is in a virtual dead heat. patrick murphy is not a great candidate and he is within a point of rubio. >> a good point. it hasn't gotten -- >> i think a big distinction is to say, look. my problem is with donald trump. i'm a republican. but i think a trump administration would be better for the country than a clinton policy. that's very different than saying once you're for trump you start down the slippery slope of rationalizing everything he says and does. saying as he man of good character. that you didn't have to do. my colleague wrote, once start for trump, somehow they start going down the slope. but they take themselves by becoming rationalizers instead of reluctant voters. >> i think he tweeted before the fbi news that he had gone back. and i think that's because he wants to be able to investigate hillary clinton with a clean slate. >> and i think he may have been thinking about a house leadership race. and i do think, can you be anti-trump and be in house leadership? 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