would be a global outbreak. tiitj�*h there was a 50—50 chance of would be a global outbreak.- there was a 50—50 chance of being would be a global outbreak- there was a 50—50 chance of being a global outbreak and not 100% chance. i'm not exactly sure of when he first said it to me, but this is also why i wanted cobra to wake up whitehall to this threat. you also why i wanted cobra to wake up whitehall to this threat.— whitehall to this threat. you must have appreciated, _ whitehall to this threat. you must have appreciated, mr _ whitehall to this threat. you must have appreciated, mr hancock, i whitehall to this threat. you must l have appreciated, mr hancock, but having _ have appreciated, mr hancock, but having been — have appreciated, mr hancock, but having been told _ have appreciated, mr hancock, but having been told by— have appreciated, mr hancock, but having been told by the _ have appreciated, mr hancock, but having been told by the chief- having been told by the chief medicat— having been told by the chief medical officer— having been told by the chief medical officer that - having been told by the chief medical officer that there - having been told by the chiefl medical officer that there was having been told by the chief. medical officer that there was a 5050 _ medical officer that there was a 5050 chance _ medical officer that there was a 5050 chance that _ medical officer that there was a 5050 chance that quarantine . medical officer that there was a i 5050 chance that quarantine would not work. — 5050 chance that quarantine would not work. and _ 5050 chance that quarantine would not work, and if _ 5050 chance that quarantine would not work, and if it _ 5050 chance that quarantine would not work, and if it did _ 5050 chance that quarantine would not work, and if it did not - 5050 chance that quarantine would not work, and if it did not work, i not work, and if it did not work, the outbreak— not work, and if it did not work, the outbreak would _ not work, and if it did not work, the outbreak would be - not work, and if it did not work, the outbreak would be global, l not work, and if it did not work, . the outbreak would be global, the virus _ the outbreak would be global, the virus would — the outbreak would be global, the virus would be _ the outbreak would be global, the virus would be coming. _ the outbreak would be global, the virus would be coming. but- the outbreak would be global, the virus would be coming. but once i the outbreak would be global, the . virus would be coming. but once the virus _ virus would be coming. but once the virus was _ virus would be coming. but once the virus was spread _ virus would be coming. but once the virus was spread beyond _ virus would be coming. but once the virus was spread beyond china, - virus would be coming. but once the l virus was spread beyond china, which of course _ virus was spread beyond china, which of course it— virus was spread beyond china, which of course it did — virus was spread beyond china, which of course it did at _ virus was spread beyond china, which of course it did at the _ virus was spread beyond china, which of course it did at the end _ virus was spread beyond china, which of course it did at the end of- of course it did at the end of january— of course it did at the end of january and _ of course it did at the end of january and the _ of course it did at the end of january and the very - of course it did at the end of january and the very end - of course it did at the end of january and the very end ofi january and the very end of february. _ january and the very end of february. it— january and the very end of february, it had _ january and the very end of february, it had started - january and the very end of february, it had started by| january and the very end of- february, it had started by that stage _ february, it had started by that stage already _ february, it had started by that stage already but _ february, it had started by that stage already but was - february, it had started by that stage already but was not - february, it had started by that- stage already but was not sustained, the virus _ stage already but was not sustained, the virus was — stage already but was not sustained, the virus was coming, _ stage already but was not sustained, the virus was coming, there - stage already but was not sustained, the virus was coming, there was- stage already but was not sustained, the virus was coming, there was no. the virus was coming, there was no nreans— the virus was coming, there was no means of— the virus was coming, there was no means of stopping _ the virus was coming, there was no means of stopping it. _ the virus was coming, there was no means of stopping it. if— the virus was coming, there was no means of stopping it.— the virus was coming, there was no means of stopping it. if we were on the wron: means of stopping it. if we were on the wrong side _ means of stopping it. if we were on the wrong side of _ means of stopping it. if we were on the wrong side of that _ means of stopping it. if we were on the wrong side of that 50-50, - means of stopping it. if we were on | the wrong side of that 50-50, which the wrong side of that 50—50, which it turned out that we were, yes, exactly. that's why try to get the whole system going. 50 exactly. that's why try to get the whole system going.— exactly. that's why try to get the whole system going. so why did you to the parliamentary _ whole system going. so why did you to the parliamentary governmentall to the parliamentary governmental machine _ to the parliamentary governmental machine spent _ to the parliamentary governmental machine spent so _ to the parliamentary governmental machine spent so many— to the parliamentary governmental machine spent so many meetings, | to the parliamentary governmental l machine spent so many meetings, in february— machine spent so many meetings, in february and — machine spent so many meetings, in february and march, _ machine spent so many meetings, in february and march, there _ machine spent so many meetings, in february and march, there is- machine spent so many meetings, in february and march, there is a - february and march, there is a meeting — february and march, there is a meeting on— february and march, there is a meeting on the _ february and march, there is a meeting on the 2nd _ february and march, there is a meeting on the 2nd of- february and march, there is a meeting on the 2nd of march, i february and march, there is al meeting on the 2nd of march, a meeting — meeting on the 2nd of march, a meeting with _ meeting on the 2nd of march, a meeting with the _ meeting on the 2nd of march, a meeting with the prime - meeting on the 2nd of march, ai meeting with the prime minister meeting on the 2nd of march, a - meeting with the prime minister on the 8th— meeting with the prime minister on the 8th of— meeting with the prime minister on the 8th of march, _ meeting with the prime minister on the 8th of march, the _ meeting with the prime minister on the 8th of march, the chancellor. meeting with the prime minister on the 8th of march, the chancellor of| the 8th of march, the chancellor of the 8th of march, the chancellor of the exchequer— the 8th of march, the chancellor of the exchequer in _ the 8th of march, the chancellor of the exchequer in the _ the 8th of march, the chancellor of the exchequer in the 8th _ the 8th of march, the chancellor of the exchequer in the 8th of- the 8th of march, the chancellor of the exchequer in the 8th of march. i the exchequer in the 8th of march. debating _ the exchequer in the 8th of march. debating the — the exchequer in the 8th of march. debating the probability, _ the exchequer in the 8th of march. debating the probability, and - debating the probability, and expressed _ debating the probability, and expressed in— debating the probability, and expressed in terms _ debating the probability, and expressed in terms of- debating the probability, and expressed in terms of one i debating the probability, and expressed in terms of one in| debating the probability, and - expressed in terms of one in five, one in— expressed in terms of one in five, one in ten— expressed in terms of one in five, one in ten and— expressed in terms of one in five, one in ten and one _ expressed in terms of one in five, one in ten and one in _ expressed in terms of one in five, one in ten and one in two, - expressed in terms of one in five, one in ten and one in two, of- expressed in terms of one in five, one in ten and one in two, of the i one in ten and one in two, of the reasonable — one in ten and one in two, of the reasonable worst— one in ten and one in two, of the reasonable worst case _ one in ten and one in two, of the reasonable worst case scenario l reasonable worst case scenario venture — reasonable worst case scenario venture waiting? _ reasonable worst case scenario venture waiting? the _ reasonable worst case scenario venture waiting? the reality. reasonable worst case scenario. venture waiting? the reality was that once — venture waiting? the reality was that once the _ venture waiting? the reality was that once the virus _ venture waiting? the reality was that once the virus had - venture waiting? the reality was that once the virus had spread . venture waiting? the reality was i that once the virus had spread from china, _ that once the virus had spread from china, it _ that once the virus had spread from china, it was— that once the virus had spread from china, it was game _ that once the virus had spread from china, it was game over. _ that once the virus had spread from china, it was game over. the - that once the virus had spread from china, it was game over. the virusi china, it was game over. the virus would _ china, it was game over. the virus would come — china, it was game over. the virus would come why— china, it was game over. the virus would come. why was _ china, it was game over. the virus would come. why was so - china, it was game over. the virus would come. why was so much - china, it was game over. the virus i would come. why was so much time spent _ would come. why was so much time spent debating — would come. why was so much time spent debating that _ would come. why was so much time spent debating that the _ would come. why was so much time spent debating that the relatively i spent debating that the relatively arid issue — spent debating that the relatively arid issue of— spent debating that the relatively arid issue of what _ spent debating that the relatively arid issue of what is— spent debating that the relatively arid issue of what is the - arid issue of what is the probability— arid issue of what is the probability of— arid issue of what is the probability of the - arid issue of what is the - probability of the reasonable arid issue of what is the _ probability of the reasonable worst case scenario— probability of the reasonable worst case scenario coming _ probability of the reasonable worst case scenario coming to _ probability of the reasonable worst case scenario coming to pass? - probability of the reasonable worst case scenario coming to pass? i. case scenario coming to pass? don't recall being involved in case scenario coming to pass?“ don't recall being involved in that debate or wasting any time monitor, at all. in the country, in late january, i stated and concluded at cobra that the reasonable worst—case scenario should be the planning assumption for the country. i have since discovered through the paperwork for this inquiry that there was this wider debate about what were the chances of that? there are two parts. the first is, is it going to escape china? the second is, if it goes global, how bad will it be? if we hit the reasonable worst—case scenario or something were more central. i took the prior decision based on a cautionary principle at the start of this that we should base our approach on the reasonable worst—case scenario happening. it took, as we discussed earlier, time to get the rest of the system to believe that that was not an overreaction, and as we have seen, that some people describing my position is mad. it was not mad. it was the correct precautionary principle at the time. of course, in hindsight, it was right. by, principle at the time. of course, in hindsight, it was right.— hindsight, it was right. a cobra meetin: hindsight, it was right. a cobra meeting on _ hindsight, it was right. a cobra meeting on the _ hindsight, it was right. a cobra meeting on the 29th _ hindsight, it was right. a cobra meeting on the 29th of - hindsight, it was right. a cobra meeting on the 29th of januaryi hindsight, it was right. a cobra - meeting on the 29th of january which meeting on the 29th ofjanuary which you chaired, — meeting on the 29th ofjanuary which you chaired, and— meeting on the 29th ofjanuary which you chaired, and just _ meeting on the 29th ofjanuary which you chaired, and just what _ meeting on the 29th ofjanuary which you chaired, and just what we - meeting on the 29th ofjanuary which you chaired, and just what we get - meeting on the 29th ofjanuary which you chaired, and just what we get toi you chaired, and just what we get to that point. _ you chaired, and just what we get to that point, can — you chaired, and just what we get to that point, can i _ you chaired, and just what we get to that point, can ijust_ you chaired, and just what we get to that point, can ijust ask— you chaired, and just what we get to that point, can ijust ask you to - that point, can ijust ask you to confirm — that point, can ijust ask you to confirm what _ that point, can ijust ask you to confirm what you _ that point, can ijust ask you to confirm what you refer - that point, can ijust ask you to confirm what you refer to - that point, can ijust ask you to . confirm what you refer to earlier, which _ confirm what you refer to earlier, which is _ confirm what you refer to earlier, which is that _ confirm what you refer to earlier, which is that you _ confirm what you refer to earlier, which is that you had, _ confirm what you refer to earlier, which is that you had, i— confirm what you refer to earlier, which is that you had, i think- which is that you had, i think around — which is that you had, i think around the _ which is that you had, i think around the 22nd _ which is that you had, i think around the 22nd of _ which is that you had, i think around the 22nd ofjanuary. which is that you had, i think- around the 22nd ofjanuary called for a _ around the 22nd ofjanuary called for a cobra, — around the 22nd ofjanuary called for a cobra, but _ around the 22nd ofjanuary called for a cobra, but dan _ around the 22nd ofjanuary called for a cobra, but dan downing - around the 22nd ofjanuary called i for a cobra, but dan downing street had put _ for a cobra, but dan downing street had put obstacles _ for a cobra, but dan downing street had put obstacles in— for a cobra, but dan downing street had put obstacles in your— for a cobra, but dan downing street had put obstacles in your path. - for a cobra, but dan downing street had put obstacles in your path. i- had put obstacles in your path. i 'ust had put obstacles in your path. i just want— had put obstacles in your path. i just want to _ had put obstacles in your path. i just want to establish _ had put obstacles in your path. i just want to establish that - had put obstacles in your path. i just want to establish that as . had put obstacles in your path. i just want to establish that as a i just want to establish that as a matter— just want to establish that as a matter of— just want to establish that as a matter of chronology. - just want to establish that as a matter of chronology.— matter of chronology. that's a matter of chronology. that's a matter of _ matter of chronology. that's a matter of fact. _ matter of chronology. that's a matter of fact. but _ matter of chronology. that's a matter of fact. but i _ matter of chronology. that's a matter of fact. but i also - matter of chronology. that's a - matter of fact. but i also requested that into parliament, that was also delayed because the downing street grid did not include a pandemic. absiii grid did not include a pandemic. all right, but there was of course a cobra _ right, but there was of course a cobra meeting _ right, but there was of course a cobra meeting on— right, but there was of course a cobra meeting on the _ right, but there was of course a cobra meeting on the 24th - right, but there was of course a cobra meeting on the 24th of l right, but there was of course a - cobra meeting on the 24th ofjanuary and a _ cobra meeting on the 24th ofjanuary and a second — cobra meeting on the 24th ofjanuary and a second one _ cobra meeting on the 24th ofjanuary and a second one on _ cobra meeting on the 24th ofjanuary and a second one on the _ cobra meeting on the 24th ofjanuary and a second one on the 29th. - cobra meeting on the 24th ofjanuary and a second one on the 29th. yes. i and a second one on the 29th. yes. pace and a second one on the 29th. yes. page five. — and a second one on the 29th. yes. page five, paragraph _ and a second one on the 29th. page five, paragraph three. there were _ page five, paragraph three. there were two— page five, paragraph three. there were two scenarios _ page five, paragraph three. there were two scenarios to _ page five, paragraph three. there were two scenarios to be - page five, paragraph three. there i were two scenarios to be considered said the _ were two scenarios to be considered said the cm0~ — were two scenarios to be considered said the cmo. the _ were two scenarios to be considered said the cmo. the first— were two scenarios to be considered said the cmo. the first that - were two scenarios to be considered said the cmo. the first that was - said the cmo. the first that was that the — said the cmo. the first that was that the spread _ said the cmo. the first that was that the spread was _ said the cmo. the first that was that the spread was consideredl said the cmo. the first that was i that the spread was considered to said the cmo. the first that was - that the spread was considered to be confined _ that the spread was considered to be confined to _ that the spread was considered to be confined to china, _ that the spread was considered to be confined to china, and _ that the spread was considered to be confined to china, and the _ that the spread was considered to be confined to china, and the second i confined to china, and the second was that— confined to china, and the second was that the — confined to china, and the second was that the spread _ confined to china, and the second was that the spread was - confined to china, and the second was that the spread was not - confined to china, and the second i was that the spread was not limited to china _ was that the spread was not limited to china and — was that the spread was not limited to china and there _ was that the spread was not limited to china and there will— was that the spread was not limited to china and there will be _ was that the spread was not limited to china and there will be an - to china and there will be an outbreak— to china and there will be an outbreak with— to china and there will be an outbreak with the _ to china and there will be an outbreak with the uk - to china and there will be an i outbreak with the uk impacted. to china and there will be an - outbreak with the uk impacted. the evidence _ outbreak with the uk impacted. the evidence that — outbreak with the uk impacted. the evidence that he _ outbreak with the uk impacted. the evidence that he was _ outbreak with the uk impacted. the evidence that he was telling - outbreak with the uk impacted. the evidence that he was telling cobra l evidence that he was telling cobra there _ evidence that he was telling cobra there that — evidence that he was telling cobra there that if — evidence that he was telling cobra there that if the _ evidence that he was telling cobra there that if the second _ evidence that he was telling cobra there that if the second scenario l there that if the second scenario came _ there that if the second scenario came to — there that if the second scenario came to pass, _ there that if the second scenario came to pass, that _ there that if the second scenario came to pass, that the - there that if the second scenario came to pass, that the spread . there that if the second scenario came to pass, that the spread is there that if the second scenario - came to pass, that the spread is not limited _ came to pass, that the spread is not limited to— came to pass, that the spread is not limited to china, _ came to pass, that the spread is not limited to china, there _ came to pass, that the spread is not limited to china, there would - came to pass, that the spread is not limited to china, there would be - came to pass, that the spread is not limited to china, there would be a l limited to china, there would be a pandemic— limited to china, there would be a pandemic and _ limited to china, there would be a pandemicand by— limited to china, there would be a pandemic and by necessary- pandemic and by necessary implication, _ pandemic and by necessary implication, it— pandemic and by necessary implication, it would - pandemic and by necessary implication, it would hit - pandemic and by necessary| implication, it would hit the pandemic and by necessary- implication, it would hit the world and the _ implication, it would hit the world and the uk — implication, it would hit the world and the uk would _ implication, it would hit the world and the uk would be _ implication, it would hit the world and the uk would be one - implication, it would hit the world and the uk would be one of- implication, it would hit the world and the uk would be one of the l and the uk would be one of the countries — and the uk would be one of the countries— and the uk would be one of the countries.- so _ and the uk would be one of the countries. yes. so what - and the uk would be one of the countries. yes. so what the - and the uk would be one of the - countries. yes. so what the inquiry wants to countriesm so what the inquiry wants to understand _ countriesm so what the inquiry wants to understand is _ countriesm so what the inquiry wants to understand is that - countriesm so what the inquiry wants to understand is that to - countriesm so what the inquiry| wants to understand is that to what extent _ wants to understand is that to what extent by _ wants to understand is that to what extent by you — wants to understand is that to what extent by you or— wants to understand is that to what extent by you or others _ wants to understand is that to what extent by you or others was - wants to understand is that to what extent by you or others was it - wants to understand is that to what extent by you or others was it seenj extent by you or others was it seen that if— extent by you or others was it seen that if it _ extent by you or others was it seen that if it does — extent by you or others was it seen that if it does leave _ extent by you or others was it seen that if it does leave china, - extent by you or others was it seen that if it does leave china, it - that if it does leave china, it doesn't _ that if it does leave china, it doesn't really— that if it does leave china, it doesn't really matter, - that if it does leave china, it doesn't really matter, or- that if it does leave china, it doesn't really matter, or it i that if it does leave china, it. doesn't really matter, or it may that if it does leave china, it - doesn't really matter, or it may not matter— doesn't really matter, or it may not matter absolutely _ doesn't really matter, or it may not matter absolutely because - doesn't really matter, or it may not matter absolutely because there i doesn't really matter, or it may noti matter absolutely because there are practical _ matter absolutely because there are practical measures— matter absolutely because there are practical measures which _ matter absolutely because there are practical measures which may- matter absolutely because there are practical measures which may be - matter absolutely because there are i practical measures which may be that it won't_ practical measures which may be that it won't come — practical measures which may be that it won't come to _ practical measures which may be that it won't come to the _ practical measures which may be that it won't come to the united _ practical measures which may be thatj it won't come to the united kingdom, and if— it won't come to the united kingdom, and if it— it won't come to the united kingdom, and if it does. — it won't come to the united kingdom, and if it does, there _ it won't come to the united kingdom, and if it does, there is _ it won't come to the united kingdom, and if it does, there is a _ it won't come to the united kingdom, and if it does, there is a means- and if it does, there is a means practically— and if it does, there is a means practically of— and if it does, there is a means practically of stopping - and if it does, there is a means practically of stopping it - and if it does, there is a means. practically of stopping it spread? that was— practically of stopping it spread? that was not— practically of stopping it spread? that was not my _ practically of stopping it spread? that was not my view _ practically of stopping it spread? that was not my view at - practically of stopping it spread? that was not my view at all. - practically of stopping it spread? that was not my view at all. on. practically of stopping it spread? . that was not my view at all. on the contrary. this cobra meeting happened on the day after we had had the reasonable worst—case scenario meeting in the department. that was the first time i was really faced up to the fact that hundreds of thousands of people would die if there was a reasonable worst—case scenario, all today. that's when i said, where are we up to on the vaccine? can we accelerate it, can we get testing going, etc? by this point, the department of health was fully engaged, the permanent secretary was fully spending all of his time and i was spending as much of my time as i could on this, in case the second scenario, as it is called here, happened, in case there was a pandemic. iii called here, happened, in case there was a pandemic-— was a pandemic. if we look at paragraph _ was a pandemic. if we look at paragraph four. _ was a pandemic. if we look at paragraph four, the _ was a pandemic. if we look at paragraph four, the cmo - was a pandemic. if we look at paragraph four, the cmo said j was a pandemic. if we look at - paragraph four, the cmo said the reasonable — paragraph four, the cmo said the reasonable worst—case _ paragraph four, the cmo said the reasonable worst—case scenario l paragraph four, the cmo said the . reasonable worst—case scenario was similar— reasonable worst—case scenario was similar to _ reasonable worst—case scenario was similar to the — reasonable worst—case scenario was similar to the reasonable _ reasonable worst—case scenario wasi similar to the reasonable worst—case scenario— similar to the reasonable worst—case scenario for— similar to the reasonable worst—case scenario for influenza. _ similar to the reasonable worst—case scenario for influenza. there - similar to the reasonable worst—case scenario for influenza. there was - similar to the reasonable worst—case scenario for influenza. there was a l scenario for influenza. there was a 10% likelihood _ scenario for influenza. there was a 10% likelihood of— scenario for influenza. there was a 10% likelihood of the _ scenario for influenza. there was a 10% likelihood of the reasonable . 10% likelihood of the reasonable worst-case _ 10% likelihood of the reasonable worst—case scenario _ 10% likelihood of the reasonable worst—case scenario happening i 10% likelihood of the reasonable . worst—case scenario happening but this was— worst—case scenario happening but this was not— worst—case scenario happening but this was not explained. _ worst—case scenario happening but this was not explained. can- worst—case scenario happening but this was not explained. can you . this was not explained. can you explain — this was not explained. can you explain why— this was not explained. can you explain why if— this was not explained. can you explain why if one _ this was not explained. can you explain why if one hand - this was not explained. can you explain why if one hand the - this was not explained. can you | explain why if one hand the cmo this was not explained. can you i explain why if one hand the cmo is saying _ explain why if one hand the cmo is saying there — explain why if one hand the cmo is saying there is _ explain why if one hand the cmo is saying there is a _ explain why if one hand the cmo is saying there is a 50 _ explain why if one hand the cmo is saying there is a 50 50% _ explain why if one hand the cmo is saying there is a 50 50% chance i explain why if one hand the cmo is saying there is a 50 50% chance of| saying there is a 50 50% chance of it leaving. — saying there is a 50 50% chance of it leaving. and _ saying there is a 50 50% chance of it leaving, and then— saying there is a 50 50% chance of it leaving, and then game - saying there is a 50 50% chance of it leaving, and then game over, i saying there is a 50 50% chance of| it leaving, and then game over, but on the _ it leaving, and then game over, but on the other— it leaving, and then game over, but on the other there _ it leaving, and then game over, but on the other there is _ it leaving, and then game over, but on the other there is this _ it leaving, and then game over, but on the other there is this debate . on the other there is this debate about— on the other there is this debate about the — on the other there is this debate about the likelihood _ on the other there is this debate about the likelihood of - on the other there is this debate about the likelihood of this - about the likelihood of this worst-case _ about the likelihood of this worst—case scenario- about the likelihood of this - worst—case scenario happening? either— worst—case scenario happening? either it— worst—case scenario happening? either it leaves _ worst—case scenario happening? either it leaves or _ worst—case scenario happening? either it leaves or it _ worst—case scenario happening? either it leaves or it doesn't. - worst—case scenario happening? | either it leaves or it doesn't. ho, either it leaves or it doesn't. no, if it leaves. _ either it leaves or it doesn't. no, if it leaves, game _ either it leaves or it doesn't. no, if it leaves, game over. - either it leaves or it doesn't. iii, if it leaves, game over. this either it leaves or it doesn't.- if it leaves, game over. this figure 10% is a combination of two different considerations. 50—50 will it leave china. and the second, if it leave china. and the second, if it goes global, are we going to be on the central case, a less bad case or the worst case. in sars, sars did leave and go global, but the impact on the uk was nowhere near the reasonable worst—case. in fact, it was quite close to the reasonable best case scenario.— best case scenario. indeed, what determined _ best case scenario. indeed, what determined on _ best case scenario. indeed, what determined on the _ best case scenario. indeed, what determined on the premise - best case scenario. indeed, what determined on the premise thatl best case scenario. indeed, what| determined on the premise that it did leave — determined on the premise that it did leave china _ determined on the premise that it did leave china and _ determined on the premise that it did leave china and it _ determined on the premise that it did leave china and it was - determined on the premise that it did leave china and it was here . determined on the premise that it. did leave china and it was here how bad it— did leave china and it was here how bad it would — did leave china and it was here how bad it would be? _ did leave china and it was here how bad it would be? the _ did leave china and it was here how bad it would be? the infection - did leave china and it was here how bad it would be? the infection the. bad it would be? the infection the tally fatality — bad it would be? the infection the tally fatality rate _ bad it would be? the infection the tally fatality rate was _ bad it would be? the infection the tally fatality rate was the - tally fatality rate was the infection _ tally fatality rate was the infection fatality - tally fatality rate was the infection fatality rate - tally fatality rate was the infection fatality rate in i tally fatality rate was the . infection fatality rate in the transmissibility_ infection fatality rate in the transmissibility was - infection fatality rate in the transmissibility was the - transmissibility was the transmissibility. - transmissibility was the transmissibility. what. transmissibility was the . transmissibility. what will determine _ transmissibility. what will determine whether- transmissibility. what will determine whether it - transmissibility. what will determine whether it was| transmissibility. what will. determine whether it was a transmissibility. what will— determine whether it was a 200,000 death— determine whether it was a 200,000 death pandemici _ determine whether it was a 200,000 death pandemic, 300,000 _ determine whether it was a 200,000 death pandemic, 300,000 death- determine whether it was a 200,000 death pandemic, 300,000 death or. determine whether it was a 200,000| death pandemic, 300,000 death or a 500,000 _ death pandemic, 300,000 death or a 500,000 death? _ death pandemic, 300,000 death or a 500,000 death? what _ death pandemic, 300,000 death or a 500,000 death? what did _ death pandemic, 300,000 death or a 500,000 death? what did it - death pandemic, 300,000 death or a 500,000 death? what did it depend| 500,000 death? what did it depend on? ~ . ., 500,000 death? what did it depend on? ~ . . , on? well, the central dependent variables and _ on? well, the central dependent variables and that _ on? well, the central dependent variables and that are _ on? well, the central dependent variables and that are the - on? well, the central dependent variables and that are the ifr . on? well, the central dependent i variables and that are the ifr which you have mentioned.— you have mentioned. which was determined _ you have mentioned. which was determined by _ you have mentioned. which was determined by middle _ you have mentioned. which was determined by middle and - you have mentioned. which was. determined by middle and late... much— determined by middle and late... much tater— determined by middle and late... much later into _ determined by middle and late... much later into february. - determined by middle and late... much later into february. this - determined by middle and late... much later into february. this isi much later into february. this is much earlier than we knew the imf are. we did not know the transmissibility rate. the third factor. , the response which could affect that night we didn't have the variables but we did know there was a 5050% chance of a global pandemic. within that, there was a range of potential different outcomes from essentially itjust petering out like sars did in the west, all the way through to basically what happened, because what happened was essentially the reasonable worst—case scenario. essentially the reasonable worst-case scenario.- essentially the reasonable worst-case scenario. ~ , ., . worst-case scenario. why then, once the variables — worst-case scenario. why then, once the variables had _ worst-case scenario. why then, once the variables had become _ worst-case scenario. why then, once the variables had become clear... - the variables had become clear... much— the variables had become clear... much tateri — the variables had become clear... much later, yeah. _ the variables had become clear... much later, yeah. why— the variables had become clear... much later, yeah. why was - the variables had become clear... much later, yeah. why was the i much later, yeah. why was the reasonable _ much later, yeah. why was the reasonable worst—case - much later, yeah. why was the| reasonable worst—case scenario much later, yeah. why was the i reasonable worst—case scenario is still being — reasonable worst—case scenario is still being debated, _ reasonable worst—case scenario is still being debated, which - reasonable worst—case scenario is still being debated, which it- still being debated, which it appears _ still being debated, which it appears to— still being debated, which it appears to be, _ still being debated, which it appears to be, in— still being debated, which it appears to be, in early- still being debated, which it. appears to be, in early march, still being debated, which it- appears to be, in early march, the sage _ appears to be, in early march, the sage minutes _ appears to be, in early march, the sage minutes from _ appears to be, in early march, the sage minutes from the _ appears to be, in early march, the sage minutes from the 4th - appears to be, in early march, the sage minutes from the 4th of- appears to be, in early march, the i sage minutes from the 4th of march and there _ sage minutes from the 4th of march and there is— sage minutes from the 4th of march and there is a— sage minutes from the 4th of march and there is a cobra _ sage minutes from the 4th of march and there is a cobra meeting - sage minutes from the 4th of march and there is a cobra meeting on i sage minutes from the 4th of march and there is a cobra meeting on thej and there is a cobra meeting on the 9th of— and there is a cobra meeting on the 9th of march, — and there is a cobra meeting on the 9th of march, the _ and there is a cobra meeting on the 9th of march, the reasonable i 9th of march, the reasonable worst-case _ 9th of march, the reasonable worst—case scenario - 9th of march, the reasonable worst—case scenario debate i 9th of march, the reasonable - worst—case scenario debate appears to have _ worst—case scenario debate appears to have rumbled _ worst—case scenario debate appears to have rumbled on _ worst—case scenario debate appears to have rumbled on a _ worst—case scenario debate appears to have rumbled on a nun— worst—case scenario debate appears to have rumbled on a nun long i worst—case scenario debate appears to have rumbled on a nun long after it became _ to have rumbled on a nun long after it became clear— to have rumbled on a nun long after it became clear that _ to have rumbled on a nun long after it became clear that the _ to have rumbled on a nun long after it became clear that the virus i to have rumbled on a nun long after it became clear that the virus was . it became clear that the virus was coming _ it became clear that the virus was coming and — it became clear that the virus was coming and attention _ it became clear that the virus was coming and attention needed i it became clear that the virus was coming and attention needed to l it became clear that the virus was. coming and attention needed to be paid to _ coming and attention needed to be paid to taking — coming and attention needed to be paid to taking practical— coming and attention needed to be paid to taking practical measures l coming and attention needed to be| paid to taking practical measures to stop it _ paid to taking practical measures to sto it. ., . paid to taking practical measures to sto it. . , ., , stop it. that is not my recollection. - stop it. that is not my recollection. my - stop it. that is not my i recollection. my recollection stop it. that is not my - recollection. my recollection is that this cobra meeting, if you go down to conclusions, we presume that the reasonable worst—case scenario should be... we decide that the reasonable worst—case scenario should be the planning assumption of the united kingdom, and from that moment, certainly in the department and areas i lead, that is the basis on which we operated. we assumed that it would come and we assume that it would come and we assume that it would be terrible. and unfortunately, that assumption turned out to be correct. on the grounds that that wasn't the reasonable worst—case scenario, that would be better. so, prepare for the worst, and hope for the best. in the end we prepared for the worst and thatis end we prepared for the worst and that is what happened. 5ir end we prepared for the worst and that is what happened.— that is what happened. sir chris whitty has _ that is what happened. sir chris whitty has observed _ that is what happened. sir chris whitty has observed that - that is what happened. sir chris i whitty has observed that having that is what happened. sir chris l whitty has observed that having a reasonable — whitty has observed that having a reasonable worst—case _ whitty has observed that having a reasonable worst—case scenario . reasonable worst—case scenario system — reasonable worst—case scenario system is — reasonable worst—case scenario system is of _ reasonable worst—case scenario system is of itself _ reasonable worst—case scenario system is of itself somewhat i system is of itself somewhat ludicrous _ system is of itself somewhat ludicrous because _ system is of itself somewhat ludicrous because the - system is of itself somewhat - ludicrous because the reasonable first case — ludicrous because the reasonable first case scenario _ ludicrous because the reasonable first case scenario for _ ludicrous because the reasonable first case scenario for a _ ludicrous because the reasonablei first case scenario for a pandemic was predicated _ first case scenario for a pandemic was predicated on _ first case scenario for a pandemic was predicated on it— first case scenario for a pandemic was predicated on it being - was predicated on it being unmitigated, _ was predicated on it being unmitigated, and - was predicated on it being unmitigated, and other. was predicated on it being. unmitigated, and other ways was predicated on it being - unmitigated, and other ways as he described — unmitigated, and other ways as he described it — unmitigated, and other ways as he described it wholly _ unmitigated, and other ways as he described it wholly probable. - unmitigated, and other ways as he described it wholly probable. so i described it wholly probable. so attention — described it wholly probable. so attention was _ described it wholly probable. so attention was paid _ described it wholly probable. so attention was paid to _ described it wholly probable. so attention was paid to whether . described it wholly probable. so| attention was paid to whether or described it wholly probable. so - attention was paid to whether or not attention was paid to whether or not a wholly— attention was paid to whether or not a wholly improbable, _ attention was paid to whether or not a wholly improbable, at _ attention was paid to whether or not a wholly improbable, at the - attention was paid to whether or not a wholly improbable, at the very- a wholly improbable, at the very least _ a wholly improbable, at the very least unlikely— a wholly improbable, at the very least unlikely scenario _ a wholly improbable, at the very least unlikely scenario would - a wholly improbable, at the very. least unlikely scenario would ever happen _ least unlikely scenario would ever happen. and _ least unlikely scenario would ever happen. and then _ least unlikely scenario would ever happen. and then a _ least unlikely scenario would ever happen. and then a debate - least unlikely scenario would ever. happen. and then a debate revolved around _ happen. and then a debate revolved around the _ happen. and then a debate revolved around the probability— happen. and then a debate revolved around the probability of— happen. and then a debate revolved around the probability of that - happen. and then a debate revolved around the probability of that holy. around the probability of that holy probabte — around the probability of that holy probabte event _ around the probability of that holy probable event occurring. - around the probability of that holy probable event occurring. hot- around the probability of that holy probable event occurring.- around the probability of that holy probable event occurring. not in my recollection. — probable event occurring. not in my recollection, and _ probable event occurring. not in my recollection, and certainly _ probable event occurring. not in my recollection, and certainly not - recollection, and certainly not anything i put any effort or time in two. untilwe anything i put any effort or time in two. until we made that proposition, i did not really know that there was a big debate about that, and i certainly was not involved in it. my view was, these are the worst scenarios, this is what we should plan for, can we please get on with it. its plan for, can we please get on with it. ~ , ' ~ 5 it. a stock-take meeting, 146558. it is notable, it. a stock-take meeting, 146558. it is notable. mr— it. a stock-take meeting, 146558. it is notable, mr hancock, _ it. a stock-take meeting, 146558. it is notable, mr hancock, because - it. a stock-take meeting, 146558. |t| is notable, mr hancock, because the brief to— is notable, mr hancock, because the brief to the _ is notable, mr hancock, because the brief to the prime _ is notable, mr hancock, because the brief to the prime minister— is notable, mr hancock, because the brief to the prime minister on - brief to the prime minister on covid-l9 _ brief to the prime minister on covid-l9 for _ brief to the prime minister on covid—19 for the _ brief to the prime minister on covid—19 for the first - brief to the prime minister on covid—19 for the first time - brief to the prime minister oni covid—19 for the first time that day _ covid—19 for the first time that day there _ covid—19 for the first time that day. there is _ covid—19 for the first time that day. there is a _ covid—19 for the first time that day. there is a reference - covid—19 for the first time that day. there is a reference to i covid—19 for the first time thatl day. there is a reference to the prime _ day. there is a reference to the prime minister— day. there is a reference to the prime minister meeting - day. there is a reference to the prime minister meeting new. day. there is a reference to thel prime minister meeting new and day. there is a reference to the - prime minister meeting new and the cmo had _ prime minister meeting new and the cmo had been — prime minister meeting new and the cmo had been there. _ prime minister meeting new and the cmo had been there. we _ prime minister meeting new and the cmo had been there. we can- prime minister meeting new and the cmo had been there. we can see . prime minister meeting new and the . cmo had been there. we can see from the second _ cmo had been there. we can see from the second paragraph. _ cmo had been there. we can see from the second paragraph. there _ cmo had been there. we can see from the second paragraph. there was- the second paragraph. there was a short— the second paragraph. there was a short update — the second paragraph. there was a short update on— the second paragraph. there was a short update on the _ the second paragraph. there was a short update on the coronavirus, . the second paragraph. there was a i short update on the coronavirus, but the majority— short update on the coronavirus, but the majority of— short update on the coronavirus, but the majority of the _ short update on the coronavirus, but the majority of the ledger _ short update on the coronavirus, but the majority of the ledger is - the majority of the ledger is concerned _ the majority of the ledger is concerned with— the majority of the ledger is concerned with other- the majority of the ledger is concerned with other dhs . the majority of the ledger is i concerned with other dhs city the majority of the ledger is - concerned with other dhs city and nhs nratters~ _ concerned with other dhs city and nhs matters. given _ concerned with other dhs city and nhs matters. given that - concerned with other dhs city and nhs matters. given that this - concerned with other dhs city and nhs matters. given that this wasl concerned with other dhs city and i nhs matters. given that this was the first time _ nhs matters. given that this was the first time that — nhs matters. given that this was the first time that the _ nhs matters. given that this was the first time that the cmo _ nhs matters. given that this was the first time that the cmo had - nhs matters. given that this was the first time that the cmo had briefed . first time that the cmo had briefed the prime — first time that the cmo had briefed the prime minister— first time that the cmo had briefed the prime minister directly, - first time that the cmo had briefed the prime minister directly, and i first time that the cmo had briefed i the prime minister directly, and the fact that _ the prime minister directly, and the fact that public _ the prime minister directly, and the fact that public health _ the prime minister directly, and the fact that public health beasts - the prime minister directly, and the fact that public health beasts in- fact that public health beasts in the jungle — fact that public health beasts in the jungle and _ fact that public health beasts in the jungle and yourself- fact that public health beasts in the jungle and yourself and - fact that public health beasts in the jungle and yourself and the| the jungle and yourself and the prime — the jungle and yourself and the prime minister— the jungle and yourself and the prime ministerand _ the jungle and yourself and the prime minister and others - the jungle and yourself and the| prime minister and others were there. — prime minister and others were there. did — prime minister and others were there. did you— prime minister and others were there, did you feel— prime minister and others were there, did you feel that- prime minister and others were i there, did you feel that sufficient attention— there, did you feel that sufficient attention was _ there, did you feel that sufficient attention was paid _ there, did you feel that sufficient attention was paid to _ there, did you feel that sufficient attention was paid to the - there, did you feel that sufficient attention was paid to the debatel there, did you feel that sufficient. attention was paid to the debate on the coronavirus, _ attention was paid to the debate on the coronavirus, bearing _ attention was paid to the debate on the coronavirus, bearing in - attention was paid to the debate on the coronavirus, bearing in mind i the coronavirus, bearing in mind what _ the coronavirus, bearing in mind what you — the coronavirus, bearing in mind what you have _ the coronavirus, bearing in mind what you have told _ the coronavirus, bearing in mind what you have told us _ the coronavirus, bearing in mind what you have told us about - the coronavirus, bearing in mindl what you have told us about your concerns — what you have told us about your concerns about _ what you have told us about your concerns about the _ what you have told us about your concerns about the dawning - what you have told us about your l concerns about the dawning crisis? it concerns about the dawning crisis? it would _ concerns about the dawning crisis? it would have — concerns about the dawning crisis? it would have been _ concerns about the dawning crisis? it would have been a _ concerns about the dawning crisis? it would have been a far _ concerns about the dawning crisis? it would have been a far better- concerns about the dawning crisis? it would have been a far better use of time with hindsight to have concentrated entirely on the corona basis —— and the coronavirus crisis. in normal times, as this was seen in normal times, and of course this was before they were any deaths in the uk, then they will prepare huge amount of work on a particular subject. to get something else even onto the agenda requires some effort. and that's what we did. dill effort. and that's what we did. all ri . ht. effort. and that's what we did. all right. six february there was a cabinet — right. six february there was a cabinet meeting _ right. six february there was a cabinet meeting which - right. six february there was a cabinet meeting which you - right. six february there was a - cabinet meeting which you attended. 56131 _ cabinet meeting which you attended. 56131 we _ cabinet meeting which you attended. 56131 we can— cabinet meeting which you attended. 56137. we can see _ cabinet meeting which you attended. 56137. we can see your— cabinet meeting which you attended. 56137. we can see your name - cabinet meeting which you attended. 56137. we can see your name third . 56137. we can see your name third down _ 56137. we can see your name third down on _ 56137. we can see your name third down on the — 56137. we can see your name third down on the left—hand _ 56137. we can see your name third down on the left—hand side. - 56137. we can see your name third down on the left—hand side. on. 56137. we can see your name third . down on the left—hand side. on page six there _ down on the left—hand side. on page six there is— down on the left—hand side. on page six there is a — down on the left—hand side. on page six there is a reference _ down on the left—hand side. on page six there is a reference to _ down on the left—hand side. on page six there is a reference to a - down on the left—hand side. on page six there is a reference to a table - six there is a reference to a table top exercise _ six there is a reference to a table top exercise is— six there is a reference to a table top exercise. is that _ six there is a reference to a table top exercise. is that the - six there is a reference to a table top exercise. is that the exercisej top exercise. is that the exercise that became, _ top exercise. is that the exercise that became, we _ top exercise. is that the exercise that became, we can— top exercise. is that the exercise that became, we can see - top exercise. is that the exercise that became, we can see five - top exercise. is that the exercise i that became, we can see five lines from _ that became, we can see five lines from the _ that became, we can see five lines from the bottom, _ that became, we can see five lines from the bottom, there _ that became, we can see five lines from the bottom, there would - that became, we can see five lines from the bottom, there would be i that became, we can see five linesj from the bottom, there would be a table _ from the bottom, there would be a table top _ from the bottom, there would be a table top exercise _ from the bottom, there would be a table top exercise the _ from the bottom, there would be a table top exercise the following - table top exercise the following week _ table top exercise the following week is — table top exercise the following week is that _ table top exercise the following week. is that the _ table top exercise the following week. is that the exercise - table top exercise the following week. is that the exercise thatl week. is that the exercise that came, — week. is that the exercise that came, exercise _ week. is that the exercise that came, exercise nimbus? - week. is that the exercise that. came, exercise nimbus? correct. week. is that the exercise that - came, exercise nimbus? correct. just dealing— came, exercise nimbus? correct. just dealing briefly— came, exercise nimbus? correct. just dealing briefly with _ came, exercise nimbus? correct. just dealing briefly with nimbus, - dealing briefly with nimbus, evidence _ dealing briefly with nimbus, evidence has— dealing briefly with nimbus, evidence has been- dealing briefly with nimbus, evidence has been receivedl dealing briefly with nimbus, - evidence has been received detailing the effect _ evidence has been received detailing the effect that— evidence has been received detailing the effect that nimbus _ evidence has been received detailing the effect that nimbus focused - evidence has been received detailing the effect that nimbus focused on i the effect that nimbus focused on their likely— the effect that nimbus focused on their likely impact _ the effect that nimbus focused on their likely impact of— the effect that nimbus focused on their likely impact of the - the effect that nimbus focused on their likely impact of the nhs, . the effect that nimbus focused onl their likely impact of the nhs, and it is obvious — their likely impact of the nhs, and it is obvious because _ their likely impact of the nhs, and it is obvious because one - their likely impact of the nhs, and it is obvious because one of- their likely impact of the nhs, and it is obvious because one of the i it is obvious because one of the terrible — it is obvious because one of the terrible things— it is obvious because one of the terrible things you _ it is obvious because one of the terrible things you face - it is obvious because one of the terrible things you face in - it is obvious because one of the terrible things you face in the l terrible things you face in the course — terrible things you face in the course of— terrible things you face in the course of that _ terrible things you face in the course of that exercise - terrible things you face in the course of that exercise was . terrible things you face in the - course of that exercise was having to address — course of that exercise was having to address the _ course of that exercise was having to address the possibility- course of that exercise was having to address the possibility of, - course of that exercise was having to address the possibility of, in i to address the possibility of, in the face — to address the possibility of, in the face of— to address the possibility of, in the face of a _ to address the possibility of, in the face of a pandemic, - to address the possibility of, in| the face of a pandemic, making triage _ the face of a pandemic, making triage decisions— the face of a pandemic, making triage decisions about - the face of a pandemic, making triage decisions about life - the face of a pandemic, making triage decisions about life and i triage decisions about life and death, — triage decisions about life and death, so— triage decisions about life and death, so obviously— triage decisions about life and death, so obviously health - triage decisions about life and death, so obviously health in| triage decisions about life and i death, so obviously health in the nhs was — death, so obviously health in the nhs was a — death, so obviously health in the nhs was a public _ death, so obviously health in the nhs was a public issue. - death, so obviously health in the nhs was a public issue. was - death, so obviously health in the j nhs was a public issue. was that death, so obviously health in the l nhs was a public issue. was that a nation _ nhs was a public issue. was that a nation exercise _ nhs was a public issue. was that a nation exercise that _ nhs was a public issue. was that a nation exercise that you _ nhs was a public issue. was that a nation exercise that you would - nation exercise that you would assess — nation exercise that you would assess is — nation exercise that you would assess is useful _ nation exercise that you would assess is useful in _ nation exercise that you would assess is useful in terms - nation exercise that you would assess is useful in terms of. nation exercise that you would assess is useful in terms of iti assess is useful in terms of it attendees _ assess is useful in terms of it attendees or— assess is useful in terms of it attendees or the _ assess is useful in terms of it attendees or the learning - assess is useful in terms of it| attendees or the learning that assess is useful in terms of it - attendees or the learning that came out of— attendees or the learning that came out of it? _ attendees or the learning that came out of it? lt— attendees or the learning that came out of it? , ., . , ., out of it? it is an exercise that was specifically _ out of it? it is an exercise that was specifically designed - out of it? it is an exercise that was specifically designed to i out of it? it is an exercise that l was specifically designed to deal with the coronavirus. did it work? it worked only in one sense. the minutes demonstrate this. the nimbus minutes demonstrate this. the nimbus minutes do show that the nhs asked the question of how to prioritise when there is insufficient nhs capacity. there was a debate around that as you can see in the minutes. i concluded that it should be for clinicians, not for ministers to make a decision on this basis, and thatis make a decision on this basis, and that is how we went on and proceeded. the minutes are really clear on that, and that is also my clear on that, and that is also my clear wreck recollection. but there was one really important lesson that came out of nimbus, which was that there was no way we could allow the nhs to become overwhelmed. so the whole debate, for however long it was, 90 minutes, i can't remember exactly, was all about how do we manage, once we are in the peak if we have all these debts? my only conclusion from it was we must not let this happen. —— deaths. the question of who do we need to... brute question of who do we need to... we are 'ust question of who do we need to... we are just leaving the covert inquiry to bring you some breaking news. the former chancellor alistair darling dies at the age of 70. that was a spokesperson on behalf of his family havejust spokesperson on behalf of his family have just revealed. spokesperson on behalf of his family havejust revealed. he spokesperson on behalf of his family have just revealed. he was born on the 28th of november, so he has just had his 70th birthday. he was chancellor of the exchequer from 2007 to 2010 under gordon brown. he was a member of the labour party from 1987 until he set down in 2015, most recently for edinburgh south west, and he was first appointed as the chief secretary for the treasury by the prime minister tony blair in 1997. just to recap there that former chancellor and veteran labour policies politician alistair darling has died at the age of 70. that was coming in from a spokesperson on behalf of his family. he died, as we said, at the age of 70. he was chancellor of the exchequer from 2007 until 2010 under gordon brown. we will of course bring you more on that news about the death of alistair darling when we have it. but for now, let's return to the covert inquiry where matt hancock is continuing to give evidence —— covid inquiry. continuing to give evidence -- covid inuui . . , . continuing to give evidence -- covid inuui . ., , inquiry. there was an obvious understanding _ inquiry. there was an obvious understanding of _ inquiry. there was an obvious understanding of the - inquiry. there was an obvious understanding of the impact i inquiry. there was an obvious i understanding of the impact on inquiry. there was an obvious - understanding of the impact on the nhs of— understanding of the impact on the nhs of this— understanding of the impact on the nhs of this scenario _ understanding of the impact on the nhs of this scenario eventuate - understanding of the impact on the nhs of this scenario eventuate in? | nhs of this scenario eventuate in? they could — nhs of this scenario eventuate in? they could not _ nhs of this scenario eventuate in? they could not have _ nhs of this scenario eventuate in? they could not have been- nhs of this scenario eventuate in? they could not have been given . nhs of this scenario eventuate in? i they could not have been given that debate _ they could not have been given that debate about — they could not have been given that debate about body— they could not have been given that debate about body bags _ they could not have been given that debate about body bags and - they could not have been given that debate about body bags and sheer. debate about body bags and sheer numbers— debate about body bags and sheer numbers that _ debate about body bags and sheer numbers that it _ debate about body bags and sheer numbers that it was _ debate about body bags and sheer numbers that it was a _ debate about body bags and sheer numbers that it was a sort - debate about body bags and sheer numbers that it was a sort of- debate about body bags and sheer numbers that it was a sort of a - numbers that it was a sort of a presumption _ numbers that it was a sort of a presumption at _ numbers that it was a sort of a presumption at the _ numbers that it was a sort of a presumption at the start - numbers that it was a sort of a presumption at the start of. numbers that it was a sort of a| presumption at the start of the exercise — presumption at the start of the exercise. indeed. _ presumption at the start of the exercise. indeed. if— presumption at the start of the exercise. indeed. if the - presumption at the start of the exercise. indeed. if the people presumption at the start of the - exercise. indeed. if the people who attended. _ exercise. indeed. if the people who attended, ministers— exercise. indeed. if the people who attended, ministers and _ exercise. indeed. if the people who attended, ministers and officials i attended, ministers and officials and advisers. _ attended, ministers and officials and advisers, had _ attended, ministers and officials and advisers, had no _ attended, ministers and officials and advisers, had no illusion - attended, ministers and officialsj and advisers, had no illusion but that coronavirus _ and advisers, had no illusion but that coronavirus pandemic, - and advisers, had no illusion but that coronavirus pandemic, andl and advisers, had no illusion but . that coronavirus pandemic, and we have _ that coronavirus pandemic, and we have debated — that coronavirus pandemic, and we have debated the _ that coronavirus pandemic, and we have debated the plan _ that coronavirus pandemic, and we have debated the plan there - that coronavirus pandemic, and we have debated the plan there mick. that coronavirus pandemic, and we i have debated the plan there mick and when it— have debated the plan there mick and when it was— have debated the plan there mick and when it was coming _ have debated the plan there mick and when it was coming and _ have debated the plan there mick and when it was coming and whether- have debated the plan there mick andi when it was coming and whether there was any— when it was coming and whether there was any way— when it was coming and whether there was any way of — when it was coming and whether there was any way of stopping _ when it was coming and whether there was any way of stopping it, _ when it was coming and whether there was any way of stopping it, having - was any way of stopping it, having appreciated — was any way of stopping it, having appreciated that— was any way of stopping it, having appreciated that these _ was any way of stopping it, having appreciated that these were - was any way of stopping it, having appreciated that these were the l appreciated that these were the sorts— appreciated that these were the sorts of— appreciated that these were the sorts of death _ appreciated that these were the sorts of death that _ appreciated that these were the sorts of death that were - appreciated that these were the sorts of death that were going l appreciated that these were the l sorts of death that were going to eventuate, — sorts of death that were going to eventuate, why— sorts of death that were going to eventuate, why was _ sorts of death that were going to eventuate, why was then - sorts of death that were going to eventuate, why was then that. eventuate, why was then that consideration— eventuate, why was then that consideration given, - eventuate, why was then that consideration given, not - eventuate, why was then that consideration given, not justl eventuate, why was then that. consideration given, notjust of eventuate, why was then that - consideration given, not just of the doctrinally— consideration given, not just of the doctrinally point— consideration given, not just of the doctrinally point which _ consideration given, not just of the doctrinally point which you - consideration given, not just of the doctrinally point which you raise, . doctrinally point which you raise, which _ doctrinally point which you raise, which is — doctrinally point which you raise, which is what _ doctrinally point which you raise, which is what do _ doctrinally point which you raise, which is what do we _ doctrinally point which you raise, which is what do we do _ doctrinally point which you raise, which is what do we do about - doctrinally point which you raise, l which is what do we do about lock downs. _ which is what do we do about lock downs. and — which is what do we do about lock downs. and if— which is what do we do about lock downs, and if we _ which is what do we do about lock downs, and if we have _ which is what do we do about lock downs, and if we have one, - which is what do we do about lock downs, and if we have one, or- which is what do we do about lock - downs, and if we have one, or should we go _ downs, and if we have one, or should we go early? — downs, and if we have one, or should we go early? why— downs, and if we have one, or should we go early? why was _ downs, and if we have one, or should we go early? why was there - downs, and if we have one, or should we go early? why was there no - downs, and if we have one, or should. we go early? why was there no debate or thinking _ we go early? why was there no debate or thinking about _ we go early? why was there no debate or thinking about countermeasures? . or thinking about countermeasures? home _ or thinking about countermeasures? home isolation, _ or thinking about countermeasures? home isolation, house _ or thinking about countermeasures? home isolation, house isolation, - home isolation, house isolation, shutting — home isolation, house isolation, shutting schools, _ home isolation, house isolation, shutting schools, all— home isolation, house isolation, shutting schools, all the - home isolation, house isolation, shutting schools, all the other. shutting schools, all the other measures— shutting schools, all the other measures which— shutting schools, all the other measures which in _ shutting schools, all the other measures which in due - shutting schools, all the other measures which in due course| shutting schools, all the other- measures which in due course were imposed _ measures which in due course were imposed that _ measures which in due course were imposed. that debate _ measures which in due course were imposed. that debate is _ measures which in due course were imposed. that debate is absent - imposed. that debate is absent entirely~ — imposed. that debate is absent entirely. why— imposed. that debate is absent entirely. why do _ imposed. that debate is absent entirely. why do you _ imposed. that debate is absent entirely. why do you think- imposed. that debate is absent entirely. why do you think that| imposed. that debate is absent - entirely. why do you think that was? because _ entirely. why do you think that was? because the — entirely. why do you think that was? because the nimbus _ entirely. why do you think that was? because the nimbus exercise - entirely. why do you think that was? because the nimbus exercise was - entirely. why do you think that was? | because the nimbus exercise was put together on the basis of the 2011 pandemic flu strategy which was based on the wrong doctrine that the government's job based on the wrong doctrine that the government'sjob in based on the wrong doctrine that the government's job in a based on the wrong doctrine that the government'sjob in a pandemic is based on the wrong doctrine that the government's job in a pandemic is to manage the consequences of a pandemic, not to stop it happening. and that is an absolutely fundamental learning that we must as a country embrace. if there is one thing that this inquiry learns, and i think it is very good that the inquiry is learning to do it proposal after the modules one and two, because the central question of when do you lockdown, what are the triggers, in what order should npas be brought in and how much data do you need, because of course this is all done in the time of growing data. if you wait you can get more data. if you wait you can get more data and you can make decisions with more confidence, what are the legal structures that we should have ready in peace time so that we can then bring them up to speed quickly, having a test system ready to go, having a test system ready to go, having a test system ready to go, having a vaccine contract ready, having a vaccine contract ready, having the domestic common jack manufacture which is critical in my view, and we should not rely on that happening abroad. all of these questions are essential, in my view to the inquiry, but there also should have been at the centre of nimbus. but i'm not criticising people that put nimbus together. they were putting together an exercise under then planned the flue plan. at this point, it was still 50-50 plan. at this point, it was still 50—50 as to whether it would escape china. 50-50 as to whether it would escape china. ., .., 50-50 as to whether it would escape china. ., ,., . ,., . china. your point about learning lessons for _ china. your point about learning lessons for the _ china. your point about learning lessons for the future _ china. your point about learning lessons for the future needs - china. your point about learning lessons for the future needs no | lessons for the future needs no emphasis~ _ lessons for the future needs no emphasis. coming _ lessons for the future needs no emphasis. coming back- lessons for the future needs no emphasis. coming back to - lessons for the future needs no - emphasis. coming back to whether or not something — emphasis. coming back to whether or not something went _ emphasis. coming back to whether or not something went wrong _ not something went wrong functionally— not something went wrong functionally with _ not something went wrong functionally with the - not something went wrong i functionally with the outcome not something went wrong - functionally with the outcome of that exercise, _ functionally with the outcome of that exercise, this _ functionally with the outcome of that exercise, this was - functionally with the outcome of that exercise, this was an - functionally with the outcome of . that exercise, this was an exercise which _ that exercise, this was an exercise which wisely— that exercise, this was an exercise which wisely was _ that exercise, this was an exercise which wisely was put _ that exercise, this was an exercise which wisely was put into - that exercise, this was an exercise which wisely was put into place - that exercise, this was an exercise which wisely was put into place to| which wisely was put into place to deal with— which wisely was put into place to deal with the _ which wisely was put into place to deal with the coronavirus - which wisely was put into place to i deal with the coronavirus pandemic, to deal— deal with the coronavirus pandemic, to deal with — deal with the coronavirus pandemic, to deal with examination _ deal with the coronavirus pandemic, to deal with examination of - deal with the coronavirus pandemic, to deal with examination of the - to deal with examination of the practical— to deal with examination of the practical measures— to deal with examination of the practical measures that - to deal with examination of the practical measures that might i to deal with examination of the i practical measures that might be required — practical measures that might be required in— practical measures that might be required. in the _ practical measures that might be required. in the teeth _ practical measures that might be required. in the teeth of- practical measures that might be required. in the teeth of a - required. in the teeth of a pathogenic— required. in the teeth of a pathogenic outbreak- required. in the teeth of a| pathogenic outbreak which required. in the teeth of a - pathogenic outbreak which was already— pathogenic outbreak which was already taking _ pathogenic outbreak which was already taking place _ pathogenic outbreak which was already taking place and - pathogenic outbreak which was already taking place and it - pathogenic outbreak which was already taking place and it was| pathogenic outbreak which was i already taking place and it was it already— already taking place and it was it already in— already taking place and it was it already in outbreak. _ already taking place and it was it already in outbreak. it _ already taking place and it was it already in outbreak. it was - already taking place and it was it already in outbreak. it was a - already in outbreak. it was a ministerial— already in outbreak. it was a ministerial and _ already in outbreak. it was a ministerialand an— already in outbreak. it was a ministerial and an advisory. already in outbreak. it was a - ministerial and an advisory table top exercise _ ministerial and an advisory table top exercise designed _ ministerial and an advisory table top exercise designed to - ministerial and an advisory table top exercise designed to try- ministerial and an advisory table top exercise designed to try to l top exercise designed to try to address— top exercise designed to try to address the _ top exercise designed to try to address the very _ top exercise designed to try to address the very problem - top exercise designed to try toi address the very problem faced top exercise designed to try to - address the very problem faced by the united — address the very problem faced by the united kingdom, _ address the very problem faced by the united kingdom, and- address the very problem faced by the united kingdom, and it- the united kingdom, and it fundamentally, _ the united kingdom, and it- fundamentally, fundamentally, there was a _ fundamentally, fundamentally, there was a complete — fundamentally, fundamentally, there was a complete absence _ fundamentally, fundamentally, there was a complete absence of— fundamentally, fundamentally, there was a complete absence of any- was a complete absence of any attempt — was a complete absence of any attempt to _ was a complete absence of any attempt to identify _ was a complete absence of any attempt to identify what - was a complete absence of any attempt to identify what sort . was a complete absence of any| attempt to identify what sort of measures— attempt to identify what sort of measures may— attempt to identify what sort of measures may be _ attempt to identify what sort of measures may be required - attempt to identify what sort of measures may be required and| attempt to identify what sort of - measures may be required and what the terrible — measures may be required and what the terrible thinking _ measures may be required and what the terrible thinking would - measures may be required and what the terrible thinking would have - measures may be required and what the terrible thinking would have to l the terrible thinking would have to be about _ the terrible thinking would have to be about whether _ the terrible thinking would have to be about whether they— the terrible thinking would have to be about whether they are - the terrible thinking would have to. be about whether they are implied? yes, be about whether they are implied? yes. the _ be about whether they are implied? yes, the question— be about whether they are implied? yes, the question simply— be about whether they are implied? yes, the question simply wasn't- yes, the question simply wasn't asked. i yes, the question simply wasn't asked. , . . . ., asked. i shall return at quarter to two. so, asked. i shall return at quarter to two- so. there — asked. i shall return at quarter to two. so, there covid _ asked. i shall return at quarter to two. so, there covid inquiry - asked. i shall return at quarter to l two. so, there covid inquiry they're takin: a two. so, there covid inquiry they're taking a break. _ two. so, there covid inquiry they're taking a break. let's _ two. so, there covid inquiry they're taking a break. let's recap - two. so, there covid inquiry they're taking a break. let's recap on - two. so, there covid inquiry they're| taking a break. let's recap on some of what we have heard. matt hancock was very clear in his defence of his record as health secretary. here the said there was a toxic culture and deep unpleasantness at the heart of the pandemic. he said there was an absence of a plan and his department rose to the challenge of responding to the country is the biggest health quite sis. he mentioned the spray health quite sis. he mentioned this phrase a toxic culture written government at the time of the crisis. he claims there is no proof to claims by other witnesses that he lied to colleagues. he said this came from a toxic culture at number ten. he argued to wake up whitehall to the scale of the problem and that preparations such as the shielding programme for the vulnerable should be ramped up, but don't make they were then concluding more recently about the influence of dominic cummings. he said he would take decisions from cobra meetings to meetings that cummings held every morning, and meeting that mr hancock and others were not invited to. mr hancock called the son —— inappropriate and he said there was there an atmosphere of fear. he called this a culture grab. let's recap on some breaking news that we have had in the last few minutes. lord darling, chancellor of the care, it has been revealed that the veteran labour politician has died at the age of 70. that is from a spokesperson on behalf of his family. lord darling was chancellor of the exchequer under gordon brown between 2007 and 2010. in this role, he had to cope with the global economic crash in 2008 and the recession which followed. he was chairman of the better together campaign which campaigned against scotland leaving the united kingdom. ultimately, the campaign won the 2014 referendum on scotland independence. he went to aberdeen university, trained there as a solicitor. he was first elected as the labour mp for edinburgh central in 1987. he represented parliamentary seats in edinburgh for 28 years, until his retirement as an mp in 2015. at various times before becoming chancellor of the exchequer, lord darling was chief secretary to the treasury, work and pensions secretary, transport secretary and scottish secretary. he entered the house of lords in 2015. he has been described as a veteran labour politician and it has been revealed by his family that he has died at the age of 70. he was born on the 28th of november, so that means he has just on the 28th of november, so that means he hasjust had his 70th birthday. he was actually appointed as chief secretary to the treasury by prime minister tony blair back in 1997, and he was promoted to secretary of state for work and pensions in 1998. as you can hear from what we are saying, he had a very varied career. for more now, we can go to westminster where we speak to our political correspondent. can you just take us through what alistair darling did as a politician? he had a very significant career as a labour politician. significant career as a labour politician-— significant career as a labour olitician. , ~ , . politician. absolutely. alistair darlinu politician. absolutely. alistair darling was — politician. absolutely. alistair darling was one _ politician. absolutely. alistair darling was one of— politician. absolutely. alistair darling was one of the - politician. absolutely. alistair darling was one of the key . politician. absolutely. alistair- darling was one of the key figures in the new labour government. he was a cabinet minister and continuously throughout the whole time that labour was in power between 1997 and 2010. very experienced cabinet minister, starting off in the cabinet, doing a number of roles, work and pensions secretary, transport secretary, and secretary of transport —— trade and industry. ten years in opposition for labour, working his way through the labour ranks before getting into government in 1997. ten years later, when gordon brown was prime minister, he was made chancellor of the exchequer during a hugely crucial moment that the british economy. he was one of the british economy. he was one of the people who warned very early on about the risks of the financial crisis and he steered the uk economy through that incredibly turbulent time in 2007 up until 2010 when labour lost power. so he had a crucial role there, of course overseeing the nationalisation of rbs, the bailout of rbs and the collapse of northern rock. we have had a statement from his family confirming his sad death, a statement issued on behalf of the family saying that... announcing his death in edinburgh. he was of course an mp in edinburgh, continuously between 1987 and 2015. when he left the house of common and later became a member of the house of lords, his family have released much loved husband of margaret and and father. he died after a short spell in hospital under the wonderful care and cancer team. they confirmed that he had been suffering from cancer. it seems he had a short illness and very sadly died at the age of 70. i'm sure there will be many tributes from the world of politics to him. mentioning there that between the 2012 and 2014 he was chair of the better together campaign as well. that was another huge role for him as well, taking on that role in the scottish camp referendum in the campaign for keeping the union together. in the last few minutes, we have had a statement from sir keir starmer, the leader of the labour party, i'm just going to reduce some of what he has had plain tribute to alistair darling. he said that alistair lived a life devoted to public service. he said he would be remembered as the chancellor whose calm expertise and honesty help to guide britain through the tumbled of the global financial crisis. we have been talking a lot about his role there, that critical role in the crisis of 2007. he goes on to say that he was a lifelong advocate for scotland and the scottish people, and it came from representing his constituents in edinburgh. he goes on to talk about his personal relationship with alistair darling, of course a very key figure in the labour party. i consider myself, sir keir starmer says, incredibly fortunate. he was always at hand to give advice built on his decades of good performance. many people mentioning his good humour there and tributes coming in to alistair darling who has died at the age of 70. to alistair darling who has died at the age of 70-_ to alistair darling who has died at the ae of70. ., . . ., . the age of 70. former chancellor and veteran labour— the age of 70. former chancellor and veteran labour politician _ the age of 70. former chancellor and veteran labour politician alistair - veteran labour politician alistair darling has died at the age of at the age of 70. that has gone from his family. that's all from me at the moment. it's time to join the bbc news at one o'clock with ben brown. today at one — good news for rail passengers as members of the rmt union end their long—running pay dispute, for now at least. they've voted to accept a backdated pay rise which will mean no more strike action until the spring at the earliest. but another rail union aslef is pressing ahead with more industrial action. also on the programme this lunchtime. the former labour chancellor alistair darling has died at the age of 70. matt hancock tells the covid inquiry that as health secretary he tried to wake up whitehall to the threat of the pandemic. this year was the hottest on record according to the united nations, as world leaders gather in dubai for talks on climate change. and a last chance to see the uk's only giant pandas before they go back to china after 12 years at edinburgh zoo.

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