A moderate intensity Western disturbance is approaching Western Himalayas on February 28. It may induce a cyclonic circulation over Punjab and adjoining parts of north Haryana leading to scattered rain over Punjab and North Haryana as well as Northwest Uttar Pradesh between February 28 and March 2nd.
February is the rainiest month for winters, however, this time, the situation has been very different. If we calculate rains between Jan 1 and Feb 22, 40 percent deficiency has been observed with the Pan India rains recorded at 20.6 mm against the normal of 34.3 mm.
Now, by tomorrow weather conditions are expected to improve and rainfall activity will take a back seat over the state of Punjab and Haryana. By next week, temperatures are expected to increase to quite an extent giving a feel of the end of winters for the northern parts of the country.
Light to moderate intermittent rains are likely, commencing late evening hours, more effectively covering Pathankot, Gurdaspur, Amritsar, Jalandhar, Hoshiyarpur and Chandigarh. Light rains are also likely over Ludhiana, Barnala, Sangrur, Ropar, Ambala and Yamunanagar.
In the last four years 18.5 mm rain occurred in January 2019, in 2020 it was 28.3, rain in January 2021 was 20.2 mm and 39.5 mm in 2022. Thus, this has been the least rainy January in the past five years.