The mainland onset of Monsoon has a standard deviation of 7 days. In the last 10 years, the earliest arrival was on 29th May in 2018 & 2022 and the most delayed on 08th June 2019.
Both agencies have gone for a weaker monsoon, ostensibly on account of evolving El Nino in the Pacific Ocean during the season. Too much is being read in between the lines, without any conclusive evidence, specially by those who have least idea about the complexity of monsoon.
Explained: The IMD prediction of 'normal rainfall' comes just a day after a private agency, Skymet Weather, predicted 'below-normal' monsoon rains in the country
Parts of northwest India, west-central and northeast regions are predicted to receive normal to below-normal rainfall during the southwest monsoon season, IMD said
Skymet expects the upcoming monsoon to be 94 per cent (with an error margin of +/-5 per cent) of the long period average of 868.6 mm for the four-month period from June to September this year amid the El Nino threat. 📰 Monsoon 2023 in India: Forecast for a Below-Normal Rain Season Added Risk to Economy, Raises Concerns Regarding Food Production, Says Report.