Arabian Sea churned a cyclonic storm each in June 2014 ( Naunak ), June 2015 ( Ashobaa), June 2019 (Vayu) and June 2020 ( Nisarga). Out of these, only Nisarga attacked Konkan coast and all the rest stayed far away from Indian shore. Frequency of storms over Arabian Sea during month of May was further less. Total of 3 storms developed over this ocean between 2011 and 2021 and 2 of these in 2018 itself.
A low pressure area is likely to form over South Andaman Sea and adjoining southern parts of Central BoB in the next about 36hours. As a precursor, cyclonic circulation has appeared over that area and is expected to consolidate further.
There is a low pressure area likely to form over the South Andaman Sea in the next 48hr. This will strengthen further while moving westward, initially. Heavy to very heavy rains are expected over the Bay Islands over the next 72hr. Observational watch will begin to monitor the track, intensity and timelines of this weather system.
Although depressions and cyclones tend to recurve in north easterly direction during March and April before reaching east coast of India. But there are always exceptions. Cyclone Fani formed over Bay of Bengal on April 26 in 2019. It made a landfall over Puri in Odisha on May 3rd.
Summer Equinox has commenced on 20thMarch and the Sun has started its march in to the Northern Hemisphere. Also, the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone will become more active over the Indian Seas. Most cyclonic disturbances pop up in this zone of convection and rev up later on either side of Indian coastline.