0 i think that's still beak the way. >> that tweet -- first of all, a president tweeting. secondly, saying you know, talking about "extremists," calling it the boehner shutdown. >> do you think the president was on his phone tweeting? >> it's not the bane irshutdown. he doesn't want the shutdown. but anyway -- >> i think that's -- >> but i think if you take that all together yesterday, it was not great news for federal employees because it's going to last an highway, but better news for the full faith and credit of the country. >> i this i so the. >> because it sounds like, if you put it all together, you can probably find a face-saving way for the republicans to get out. >> the obviously, a lot of the business leaders of the country were relieved that boehner turned to, you know, his people and said, listen, you guys are not going to screw with the full faith and credit of the united states of america. >> it showed a profile in courage moment for the speaker. and it was just odd. i think the president, what he was trying to say, given the benefit of the doubt, but it doesn't help boehner to have the president claim that he's being held hostage by tea party extremists even if it is probably partially true and at the same time, have the speaker saying look, i'm mature enough to know there's certain things we cannot do. you would hope bigger mature smarter heads could come together. >> the thing is -- but -- >> the things he was saying during the speech are just -- >> if you're dealing with another side that's -- that it is. >> unstable at times. >> unstable at times, has unstable element. when they show stability. >> when you have a stable moment there i don't thing you want to zing him in public. >> you don't want to push him down. >> do we have to have our high elected officials go through hostage negotiations training? basically. >> i'm not -- i agree with the concept of, you know, try not to poke someone when they're finally showing some signs of intelligence, but at the same time, you know, the speaker like imitated the president the other day. that was incredibly disrespectful. we could go on about that. but why don't we just move on. as one side waits for the other to blink -- it's nice to see heilemann here, isn't it? >> i'm sorry. i gave the car people the wrong address. >> thanks. that's way too much information. >> there was a lot of -- >> they thought you meant it the other opium den. >> there's a lot of them in brooklyn. they get confused where to pick me up in the mornings. sorry about that. >> wow. okay. he overslept. as one side waits for the other to blink in the shutdown, the entire senate delegation from kentucky was caught with live mics discussing strategy. >> do you have a second? >> i'm all wired up here. >> i just didn't see an end. i just go over and over again, we're willing to compromise and negotiate. i don't think they poll tested we won't negotiate. i think it's all of for them to say that over and over again. >> i do, too. i just came back from a two-hour meeting from him and that was basically the same view privately. >> if we keep saying we wanted to defund, it we fought for that, and now we're willing to compromise, i think -- i know we don't want to be here, but we're going to win this i think. >> what do you think about that? >> i think it's kind of awesome i'm wired up here but let's have the conversation anyway. >> and rand paul says. >> it's kind of excellent. >> mike barnicle offers a course on this whenever he wants to talk about anybody, he takes his mic off and huts it in his pocket. i learned that a long time ago. you have the conversation once your mic's in the pocket. >> every microphone is always live. >> exactly. >> near your mouth, it's live. >> just ask the live prime minister. >> reporter: the we're all wired up here, guys. >> we're going to win this. >> who's winning and losing here in the republicans are saying we're going to win this. it certainly doesn't look that way to most people observing. we haven't heard from you. >> the republicans are losing. >> why? >> because the country's against them. they are -- the country's against them and all of the -- it's weird that they don't seem to get the calendar, right? i mean, when they fought this battle the last time. 2011, they were fighting against a president who was in the position of vulnerability. he had to run for re-election in 2012. so the threats they were able to bring against him put him in a position where if he pushed them to the limit and they crashed the economy it would hurt him in his re-election in 2012. the president's not running for re-election and there's an intervening election, a congressional election in 2014. the public opinion polls are clear about who's winning the battle right now. >> show that first one about people i supporting the shutdown, how many people support the shutdown. dee dee myers yesterday gave a fantastic litany about why did the republicans do this? they lost one presidential race, they lost another presidential race. they lost senate races. all the polls are against them. here is -- and by the way. >> hard call. >> let's keep that up for a second. this is not -- i said this from the very beginning as "the wall street journal" and the litany of conservatives i've been talking about that agree with me. we've been saying this for several weeks. this many isn't about ideology. none of us, none of us conservatives like obama care. okay, we're with you. we're with you. i also -- i don't, you know, like cancer. right? but me going up and banging my head against the wall is not going to end cancer. it's irrational. >> forget about all the histrionics, they're playing a losing hand and playing it badly. it's just a neutral fact. they're playing it horribly. >> nothing to do with ideology. >> the impact may be to ensure that rand paul and mitch mcconnell if he gets re-elected remain in the minority in the senate because the house republicans are in their safe seats. they're not in that much danger. a few of them might be, but by and large, they're okay. but you know, the republican party could have taken the senate next year. >> let's now get some other perspective on this. sam stein and then luke chime in. think about the open mic moment you heard, the arguing over the tweets. the bigger picture is the capitol hill police working for no money putting lives on the line and the many others dealing with the shutdown in a very real way. sam, you first. >> yeah, i think it's taking a toll right now. you see republicans going to this piecemeal approach. they recognize the cuts have a human cost. so they're trying to change the politics around this discussion saying we'll willinging to fund nih, reopen the world war ii memorial, do this for the capitol hill police, and the president saying no, we need a full approach. we can't just piecemeal fund the government. i think the republicans recognize there is damage being done here. and that they need to change the topic away from obama care and say we are for opening parts of the government. and the president is not. i think that's actually pretty interesting change in the tone of this debate. i don't know how much effect it's going to having because the president is adamant he's not going to sign a bill unless it funds the full government. i think that moment indicated. >> luke? >> this whole shutdown was over the president's health care law. that's the last thing anyone's talking about now. there's a lot of members who are very apprehensive about that saying we had a gift handed to us with the website crashing but no one was talking about that because the focus was on the shutdown. one member said look, what these guys wanted, these 95 or so was a big pickett's charge before the health care became law so they went back to their districts and said we did everything possible to try and stop it. when you do everything to try and stop it, you amass a lot of human cost. you're starting to see that play out. at the end of the day, what do they get in return for this strategy? john boehner said yesterday to "the new york times" they're going to raise the debt limit. they lost their best negotiating position. it's difficult to see what they get out of all of this. is it a repeal of the medical device tax? i don't think they're going to get chain cpi because democrats are holding firm. we usually expect democrats to cave. this is not 2011. they're not going to give $2 trillion away with no revenue. fascinating see how this all plays out and how boehner emerges from it. >> let's just call it what it is, this is the ted cruz strategy. i'm kind of tired of people in the mainstream media telling me that ted cruz, it may be bad for the party but it's great for ted. no, it's not. no, it's not. this guy is isolated on capitol hill. may i remind americans that think this is great because there's a flash, there's a flash, yeah, oh, look at the flash. look at that shiny flash. let's run to the shiny flash. it must be great and that shiny flash is going to be sustainable. i remind everybody michelle bok mab won the iowa straw poll. i remind everybody here that sarah palin was in first place for a very long time and then was herman cain in first place and then donald trump was in first place for several weeks. you can going down the list. newt gingrich won south carolina. >> what is your point, joe? i mean, donald trump is our new president. he's doing -- >> exactly. my point is that this sort of activity is a great starter. it is a great starter. it is a terrible finisher. mike lee, mike lee is going to have influence in the united states senate i think for a very long time because people respect mike lee and tenth think that this is all about mike lee running for president. but all this stuff about listen, republicans as luke just said, they gave up their best negotiating position with the debt limit because of this terrible strategy that everybody warned republicans against. except for ted cruz, marco rubio, mike lee, and 30 or so people in the house. >> and what you're saying is paying off or not paying off for republicans as you warn because increasingly republican fund raidsers are feeling pressure from most of their loyal donors to really stop because of the politics behind the shutdown. "the daily beast" article quotes major donor who have deep reservations or who have stopped giving all together because of the growing tea party influence and what they see is the group's impact on handling the shutdown. one donor from houston said republicans misread the mood of the country going into the shutdown, adding, we are finding a marvelous way to grab defeat from the jaws of victory. another donor who hosted fund-raisers for paul ryan tom cotton and eric cantor says she is done giving money to the national republican congressional committee saying "when you have a small segment who dictate to the rest of the country, the result is what we've seen in the last two days." >> harold ford, this is about winning. these people are angry for the same reason i've been angry, not because of ideology but because of stupidity. it's about winning. they want to win. this is not helping our chances. >> two conversations. you're having a conversation about national electoral success. this obviously imperils that. watching mcconnell and rand paul talk about local parochial races, rand paul is as important to anyone who ensure mcconnell is able to succeed. that opponent he has, if rand paul suggests he finds that opponent appealing, it hurts mcconnell. you've been spot on now for several months. the question is, when does that seep into the other part of the party for the other conversation? the way these districts are drawn are important. think about that, reflect on that and perhaps offer a national solution. we're not going to get beyond the silly is, petty, small-minded conversation in congress till the republican party is able to embrace the bigger conversation about national electoral success. >> winning the white house back. >> in the strategic sense as you alluded earlier, obama care, you know, i happen to think obama care is great. but a lot of people don't and people can have principled reasons for that. but here was an opportunity for republicans to portray obama care as a total failure. and you know, because the website doesn't work, which is kind of silly. the website doesn't work on the first day. therefore it's a total failure. but that would have been the narrative. first impressions are important. >> they missed that whole opportunity. >> completely missed. because the websites are going to be functioning fine by the time we get this thing solved. meanwhile, people are flooding to the site because guess what, they need health insurance. >> it's going to be cheaper than anything they've had an opportunity to have. okay. luke thank you, by the way, for standing by. thanks for being on this morning. >> thank you. >> thank you, always a pleasure. >> for the first time this hurricane season, the gulf coast is on alert because tropical storm karen is churning in the gulf and could strengthen into a hurricane before making landfall. preps are now under way from louisiana through the florida panhandle. let's go to bill karins tracking the storm. bill? >> good morning, mika. over the warm waters of the gulf, this is a spot where we could get a strong storm. we've had a lot up towards the pensacola, mobile area. ivan is probably one of the stronger ones that hit. but this one is dealing with dry air and wind shear. thankfully overnight it actually weakened. it's still going to be possibly high end tropical storm or a low end category 18 hurricane at landfall. it doesn't look impressive. it's being sheered apart right now. that's great news. not showing any signs of intensification anytime soon. here's the forecast path. does take it up towards the gulf coast saturday night into sunday morning. as far as the winter storm goes, this is a crazy forecast. i got a tropical storm to talk about, a blizzard and tornado possible outbreak later this evening. snow is falling from casper, wyominging to rapid city. possibly one to two feet of snow in the beginning of october. late today, watch out in iowa, especially the northern half. could get isolated tornadoes and back down to kansas city. for mika and joe, you have your interests along the gold coast. . the panama city, pensacola area, this will not be a devastating storm but a lot of heavy rain and gusty winds. >> bill, thank you very much. coming up on "morning joe," david axelrod and chuck todd will be here. and twitter reveals a billion dollar ipo plan. but can it avoid a facebook-like fl flop. the politico playbook is ahead and the baseball playoffs are in full swing now. >> boy, last night, the dodgers. >> the great peter gamons will join us. you're watching "morning joe." we'll be right back. mine was earned in djibouti, africa. 2004. vietnam in 1972. 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