Transcripts For MSNBC Debate Countdown Vance vs. Walz 20241002

Tim walz's record is a joke. Mind your own damn business. Donald trump's second running mate. I smile at a lot of things including bogus questions from the media. And the governor of minnesota these guys are creepy and weird as hell. With the election five weeks away, the campaigns meet facetoface for what might be the final time. We have people power on the side of donald j. Trump and that's going to carry the people. This is not about power. This is about public service. Tonight, team coverage with rachel maddow, nicolle wallace, joy reid, chris hayes, lawrence o'donnell, ari melber, stephanie ruhle, jen psaki. Symone sanders townsend, and steve kornacki at the big board, alex wagner at the debate in new york city, and senators mark kelly of arizona and amy klobuchar of minnesota. Msnbc's special coverage of the vice presidential debate begins now. Hello there. Welcome. It is great to have you here. We know you have every choice in the world for where to watch the big debate, so we're super grateful you're here with us. We'll try to be worth it. We're all very excited. None of us have slept a wink. We all look ten years older than we actually are. I'm joined by some of my beloved colleagues. Joy reid is here, chris hayes, jen psaki, stephanie ruhle, alex wagner is in the spin room at the debate. We have jacob soboroff standing by in michigan with a bunch of voters at a watch party. We'll be joined by lots more of our colleagues over the course of the night. There is a lot coming up. As we settle in for tonight's vice presidential debate between democratic minnesota governor tim walz and republican ohio senator jd vance, we are conscious of the fact this is happening in not at all a swing state. The debate tonight is happening here in new york city, at cbs news headquarters. Cbs news is hosting this debate. There's no audience, just happening on their studio set. Even though cbs is hosting, you'll be able to watch the whole thing on msnbc plus our reaction and analysis after the debate is done. This is the only scheduled vice presidential debate of the whole campaign. As of right now, it is the last scheduled debate of any kind before the november election. And in fact, this is kind of a last thing before the november election. It's october already, as of today, which means we're 35 days out from election day. Tonight's debate is essentially the final big scheduled event on the campaign calendar before election day itself arrives. With a race that is essentially tied, this close to the end, that makes tonight a big deal. The potential impact of any one debate is impossible to predict in advance. But this is the only time in the modern era of televised presidential campaigns where the two presidential candidates only debated once. Since harris and trump debated last month, harris has made clear she would love to have another debate with trump. So far, he has said no way. The democratic national committee is capitalizing on that fact right now by using a projector to look like trump is a chicken on to the outside of trump tower in new york city. They're goading him as if he might change his mind and say yes to another debate. I think basically no one expects he will, but who are we to say what could happen? none of us know. We're all just being buoyed along by an unpredictable tide. The vice presidential hopefuls tonight are going to have a lot to talk about. They could probably fill the full 90 minutes even if they were just talking about news of the day. There's a lot going on. Hours ago, iran fired a barrage of nearly 200 missiles toward israel. No casualties have been reported, but those israeli and american officials are saying iran should expect to face consequences for the missile attack. Just as the iranian assault got under way, six people were killed by gunmen in the israeli city of tel aviv, responsibility for that attack was claimed by a palestinian militant group. This all comes as israel continues its new invasion of southern lebanon, which started yesterday. And of course, as the war in gaza continues now for almost a year. Meanwhile, here in the united states, recovery efforts continue across the southeast, in the devastating aftermath of hurricane helene. Tomorrow, president biden is headed to both north and south carolina to survey the damage, to meet with local officials there. Vice president harris is going to be doing the same thing in georgia tomorrow. We're also looking at east coast and gulf coast ports from maine all the way to texas. The ports are effectively shut down on the east and gulf coast in the united states. After 45,000 dock workers went on strike at midnight last night. These ports handle over half of the nation's cargo containers. We do not know how protracted this standoff is going to be, but a long shutdown of all of these ports could have absolutely huge implications for the u. S. Economy, and again, we are 35 days out from the presidential election. But again, that is just some of the news that is developing today, as the vice presidential candidates meet for tonight's debate. Stephanie, let me go to you first on the ports issue and on the strike. I don't know how long this standoff is going to go. I have heard estimates that the expected economic impact is on the order of $4 to $5 billion a day. How do you see this and what are you expecting? such a political tightrope for this administration because president biden has done a lot, has worked a lot with unions, from a policy perspective, labor has had huge wins over the last four years. The longshoremen are no fools. They know they're putting this white house in a position, and think about what this is going to mean for consumers. The next timia go to the grocery store over the next few weeks, the produce department is wiped out, if there's no bananas, if you talk to people, they're going to say is it the president's fault? it's really tricky because the president could walk in and say we have to get something done. We have to end this strike immediately. But then isn't he the guy who stands with labor? and donald trump sitting back with his arms folded because the crazy thing is, in 2016, many, many people in the union space connected with donald trump because he connected with them emotionally. From a policy perspective, joe biden is the one who delivered. The most prounion president in history. The only one we have seen stand on a picket line with union members. You saw the teamsters did not endorse kamala harris. Many other unions have, but this is politically fraught, and it's going to be interesting to see how both campaigns work with this news. And practically, there's a question as to the president's leverage. He could get in there and force an end to it, but more realistically, what he can do is exert leverage on the labor side and on the other side. And the question as to what the incentives are there is very dicy, very highstakes moment. The union knows the white house is watching. Joy, vice presidential debates are the red headed stepchildren of hey. Sorry. I see what's happening here. I would like to recall the previous message. I apologize. Vice presidential candidates get no respect. Rodney dangerfield. The family is going to come to me. They're on twitter right now. Vice presidential debates are one of the scheduled things that happen every presidential election, and every once in a while, something interesting happens. You get a fly in somebody' hair, or sarah palin does some weird stuff, but often, they're seen as having sort of the common advice is do no harm, just don't mess things up for your running mate. I feel like with 35 days to go, with only one debate having happened between harris and trump, with these candidates being so different, and also so new to the american public, this feels very high stakes for me in a way that most years it doesn't. I agree. I think most of the time vice presidential debates don't matter. I would argue that there were two times in our sort of political lifetime that that matters. 2008 and joe biden was the vice president on that stage, the vice presidential candidate on that stage, and now. I think in 2008, it was because the country was trying to get used to the idea and comfortable with the idea of a guy named barack hussein obama who was black being president. The same thing happens now but it's a black woman. Can people get comfortable with that? and what a vice president can do is say, well, i'm her first chief hire, and i'm their most senior partner. You can feel comfortable with me and i will make you comfortable with them. That's one of the things that can happen, and to the point stephanie was making. It's a chance to ask yourself as a voter, who do you want negotiating with that union and with labor? jd vance, who comes from peter thiel's camp and his running mate who says he hates overtime and doesn't like paying people? or this guy, who seems like a normal guy who is relatable to the average working person. I think he can do a lot of good for vice president harris in that regard. I think the strike and the situation of the ports come up, we'll hear a lot from tim walz about jd vance being a venture capitalist. No doubt about it. To your point, it's usually do no harm. That's what usually these debates are. I remember being on air force one with barack obama watching joe biden debate in 2012 and him saying, this is really stressful to watch. I thought t is stressful to watch. And he's thinking, he's been the vice president for four years, but really, you typically don't want to do any harm. Tonight, beyond what joy said, i think it's different, too, because with everything going on that you talked about, the ports, obviously the recovery in north carolina, everything happening in the middle east, it's all this reminder that government and stable leadership actually matters. I mean, and it is who do you want sitting in the situation room leading a meeting about recovery or leading a meeting about the middle east? and trump, and this is what i think walz, one of his assignments for tonight is, is to remind people about the differences between how they see government working for people or not. And what the difference in leadership is and isn't. Because ultimately, it's a proxy, these always are. This is going to be entertaining to watch. How awkward will jd vance be? we don't know, we'll see. Tim walz, will he be folksy and talk about weird? yes, but it's about the topics. What i think is interesting here is you mentioned sarah palin. Vance coming into this with the highest unfavorable since sarah palin. B, his approach to this position politically has not been do no harm. It's been do a lot of harm in both directions. He's a wrecking ball, and i think this is a tactical choice they made. His point is to drive home negative messages about the opponents even if it makes him look like a jerk. That has been the role he's played. It will be the role he plays tonight. I'm looking for that. The second thing which i think he has skated by on, this guy has less experience than anyone in this role in my entire life. He was a senator for two years. Okay. And he wrote a book. He wrote a book and he's on the ticket with a guy who is 78 years old, the oldest man ever to seek this office, and he's very, very close to being president of the united states. Is he prepared to be the person making the decision about these incredibly high stakes decisions? i think he has to answer that and meet that bar, and i think walz's job is to press him on that question, which is like, this guy is pretty close to having the nuclear codes. I think that's right. I think a lot of the attention to jd vance because he has this very rich record of talking incredibly detailed trash about donald trump, and it's been very tempting to a lot of people questioning vance to get him straight on what do you think about trump, but the most important thing about jd vance is what if trump is not here? then we no longer care what you thought about trump. We care about how you have basically had this record of talking about how the entire american way of life and system of government needs to be abolished. His words, not mean. We need to rip out the american system, quote, like a tumor. So i don't know if you want that as your stable leader after donald trump. But i do feel like a lot of the focus on him has been trump adjacent. Maybe that will change tonight. Let's bring in alex wagner in the spin room covering tonight's debate. Alex, what are you hearing there tonight? what are you expecting to see tonight? reporter: well, you call it a spin room, rachel. I call it a spin broom closet. A safe room, because it is literally the size of some walkin closets, which is fine for members of the media, but as you know, a spin room is where teams of, you know, candidate surrogates come to spin. And each campaign has seven surrogates coming. Elise stefanik was in here an hour ago, and the whole room was half filled with just the elise stefanik excitement. When you think about this little room with katie britt and jason miller and jd vance, who is also showing up postspin, that's what we're hearing about, to talk about how he did, and also in the same space, you'll have amy klobuchar and mark kelly and jared polis and governor pritzker. You talk about trash talking, it's good that everybody has to go through security to get in here because if this doesn't go well, people are going to be mashed up together, which will make interesting political dynamics among everything else. We know that tom emmer, the house majority w. H. I. P. , has been doing some debate prep playing governor walz for jd vance. And you guys have touched on all the major themes of i think what we're going to hear tonight, but it will be super interesting. I'm personally interested to see how this convention of very, very people who have very different world views is going to play out in a very, very small space after what you guys have noted is the last big event of the 2024 campaign. Alex, i feel like you could be try to make yourself like a universal donor of good chemistry simply by walking around handing out breath mints. If everybody is going to be in the room totally. A universal blood donor. Very good. Reporter: for the record, i am opositive or onegative, i am in case it comes to that. Between that and some tic tacs we're sure you're going to take care of all the neutralizing all of the relevant odors. We'll be back with you. Thank you. Joining us now is somebody who has contended with jd vance in ohio politics for as long as jd vance has been in ohio politics. Which it turns out is not that long. David pecker is the former chair of ohio's democratic party. He has described jd vance's rise in ohio politics as, quote, head scratching. David, really nice to have you with us. Thanks for being here. Great to be with you guys. You have described, as i mentioned, jd vance's rise as head scratching, and you have talked about the fact he doesn't have much of a trail of any kind in ohio despite the fact that he managed to barely win himself an ohio senate seat. What's the view from ohio tonight? as jd vance takes the podium against tim walz? well, as you mentioned, the whole thing has been a very odd rise. He came back here from california, announcing his return in a new york times oped. In the oped, he said he was starting a nonprofit to deal with the opioid crisis, the biggest sort of gut punch to ohio in recent years has been the opioid crisis. That's why he said he was coming back. It turned out that nonprofit was a complete sham. The money was spent on some polls. It was spent on political operatives helping when he was thinking about running in 2018. And then, he's taken this very bizarre turn where back then he was against trump and texting things to his friends about how trump may be america's hitler, then he does a turn and basically is bailed out of a losing senate run both in the primary and general in '22. He was in third or fourth place for most of that primary. Peter thiel and donald trump saved him. He was really struggled in the general. Mitch mcconnell had to dump tens of millions in here. He won by maybe seven in a year where the top of the ticket won by about 25 or 26. So even that was a poor performance. I want to emphasize what chris said is also really important. He has onesixth the experience that dan quayle had in elected office as he runs. Oneseventh that sarah palin had. And again, his only real experience in ohio was his nonprofit that turned out to be this sham. So with his running mate, again, the oldest candidate ever, i think that's a really important issue that lack of experience. As we see so many events you described in the beginning playing out. Are there hard feelings in ohio about that nonprofit? it was called our ohio renewal. As far as i know, and i might not have all of this right, it was founded roughly 2017. It was dead and gone by 2021. The executive director was vance's longtime political adviser. It spent more on the salaries for his political advisers and consultants than it did on any opioid related work at all. It did fund surveys which kind of looked like polling to set him up for his eventual senate run. I mean, it's one thing if he had come in there and said this is a nonprofit to explore, you know, how we're going to get to mars or something else that was a pet project, but to say you're anope yod related nonprofit in ohio when it is such a crushing and central concern for so many people in the state, i can't imagine that that hasn't followed him around like a can tied to his bumper. It honestly, to choose that issue like you said is so disturbing. The one major money that went to sort of opioid related work was to pay someone who had been as his treatment specialist, who had actually been getting work from purdue pharma for years to say big pharma wasn't the reason for the opioid crisis. So it's literally disinformation. So i think that stuff, but also, if you look at springfield and what he's done there, what it shows is a pattern that he's willing to sort of use this state and the issues in the state as sort of his pawn for his own advancement and his own ambition. He did it with the opioids, what he said he was doing wasn't happening. He did it with springfield. The mayor and others have been begging him to tell the truth about a city in his own state, and he's kept lying about it, to the point where that city has had threats of violence. So i think it just shows someone who is so raw with ambition that he's willing to use sort of challenges or issues in the state he's supposed to be helping for his own advancement, even if those issues actually are painful or challenging in the state that he's supposed to represent. It just shows a very cynical side y think, that is a pattern that keeps repeating itself. David pepper, former chair of the ohio democratic party. Really helpful to get that perspective. Thanks for joining us. We're going to take a quick break. When we come back, we'll be joined live on set by a close friend of minnesota governor tim walz, a close friend who also happens to be a sitting u. S. Senator. Stay with us. Tor. Stay with us (sigh) if you struggle with cpap. . . You should check out inspire. No mask. No hose. Just sleep. Inspire. Learn more and view important safety information at inspiresleep. Com san francisco's been through tough times. London breed led us through the pandemic, declaring an emergency before anyone else, saving thousands of lives. From growing up in the western addition housing projects to becoming mayor, london has never given up on the city that raised her. London is getting people off the streets and into care. London never gave up on me. I found a home, and my life is on the right track. London made it super easy for me to open my small business, by cutting city fees. And she's reinventing downtown to make our city vibrant again. She's building 82,000 new homes and helping first time homebuyers, just like us. And london's hiring hundreds of police officers, and arresting drug dealers. San francisco has been through difficult times, but our hard work is paying off. Working together, we're building a better future for the city we all love. Ad paid for by reelect mayor london breed 2024. Financial disclosures are available at sfethics. Org. He's a yale law guy. I'm a public school teacher. So we know where he's at on that, sure. It's a good opportunity to contrast where we're at. You'll hear my talk like i have, about things that impact americans. Making sure they have the opportunity to thrive, making sure we're being factual in how we talk about that. I'll work hard. That's what i do. I'll work hard, that's what i do. That was governor tim walz on our air right here just a few weeks ago. That was the night of the debate between vice president kamala harris and former president donald trump. Since then, governor walz has been working hard, holding prep sessions for tonight's debate while he's beenen the campaign trail and his practice debates, it's been pete buttigieg who has been playing the role of jd vance. Which i imagine must be kind of fun. This is sort of a recurring role for buttigieg. Back when harris was the vice presidential nominee in 2020, she prepped for her vice presidential debate by having pete buttigieg play mike pence. On the republican side, jd vance has reportedly been preparing for his debate for more than a month, holding debate prep sessions at his home in cincinnati and over zoom with trump adviser jason miller, with senior aides, and with his wife. Also, republican congressman tom emmer has reportedly been playing the role of tim walz for their practice debates. Congressman emmer like tim walz is from minnesota. They overlapped in congress for a bit. Emmer has reportedly been studying old tapes from governor walz's past debates to better prepare vance. The harris ticket does appear to be trying to set low expectations for governor walz. There is reporting about how he is nervous about his performance, how the campaign is not expecting a win tonight. There have been reminders that he warned kamala harris during the vice presidential selection process that while he did have a lot of good qualities as a campaigner, debating skill was not one of his good qualities. So the harris campaign definitely trying to play down their prospects for tonight. On the other side, the opposite. Republicans taking the opposite strategy, setting expectations essentially sky high. Here's the headline at politico. Com right now. Jd vance doesn't think he needs debate prep to defeat tim walz. Okay, then. I feel jerked around even by talking about the expectation setting. It is what they're doing. Joining us is minnesota senator amy klobuchar. She has been close friends with tim walz for years. She's also worked closely with minnesota congressman tom emmer who is helping prep senator vance for the debate. It's great to be on on this big night. And a big room. We have been told by alex that it's tight, close quarters in there. This room may be bigger than that room. It's going to be fun. Emmer, tom cotton, me. Going to be a good time. Mark kelly. A cast of thousands. Everybody very tight. So i do think it's worth noting even though i feel like i'm having to change having to say it, the expectation setting. It's palpable what you're hearing from people close to the harris/walz campaign, they are a little worried about tonight. They're not expecting to win. They think jd vance is a very good debater and they think that governor walz isn't necessarily. Look, it's very clear that jd vance is a lawyer debater type. And then you have tim walz, who chose to be a public school teacher, grew up in a small town, was not the kid in first grade that said, i want to be on the national debate stage. That's not tim walz. What he is is a decent person. A very good governor. A smart guy. And what i hope out of this debate is that comes through. The fact that he has led our state, his service in the military, everything that he has done, i want to see that come through. I know it's going to be hard with the unmuted microphones to maybe have that personality come through. That's important, and then the second thing is of course the contrast with what it would look like to have president harris and vice president walz compared to president donald trump again. And we're not going to if we get away from that, i think that would be a problem. I don't think we will, because the difference is so clear. Whether it's about tim walz and kamala harris standing up for bringing down pharmaceutical prices and having the backs of people in the economy, while donald trump is out there with his tax breaks for the billionaires or whether it's about protecting women's rights to make their own decision about their health care and donald trump out there claiming, hey, i'm proudly the one, the person responsible for overturning roe v. Wade. That's a big difference. Yeah. Senator, i was thinking about the 2008 campaign where barack obama was running for president. He announced it on a very cold day in illinois in 2007. There was this big question that the entire campaign was sort of created to combat was, is this guy really ready to be president? he had to clear that bar. Jd vance is on a national ticket in a shorter period of time, has less time in public service than barack obama had, is younger than barack obama, but because he's not at the top of the ticket, doesn't have to clear the bar, but i wonder if you think, if you as a colleague of his in the senate, think this guy is definitely ready to walk in the situation room. I'm so concerned about how he's acted since he actually left that convention stage in milwaukee. How he has just been so divisive. He admitted on a national interview just a few weeks ago that, yeah, he creates stories, and those were his words, creates stories just to get attention on an issue. We have seen that with a number of things he's said. I think the fact checking on this debate is going to be really important. Jd vance will stop at nothing. He's made stuff up. He's attacked cat ladies. There is no limit on what he'll do, and i think that kind of divisiveness and going, doubling down on a donald trump and their hulk hogan convention is not what america wants right now. They don't want to go back to that chaos. We just got out of the pandemic, they're gathering again. The economy is getting better. They don't want to go backwards. So jd vance to me in everything he's done has represented doubling down on donald trump's policies. One of the things that happens when you get on a national debate stage is you have to talk about things maybe you didn't talk about when you were governor or even sometimes when you were senator. We started the show talking a little bit about everything happening today. The port strike, the hurricane recovery, but also the middle east. What do you think governor walz should say? how should he handle that exactly? assuming it's going to come up. We don't know, but i assume it will. I have repeatedly made this point that jd vance was on his international book tour, tim walz was milking cows at the minnesota state fair. They had different lives. However, tim walz is no shrinking violet. He knows how to govern. He was in charge of the veterans affairs committee of the u. S. House of representatives. He knows a lot about military issues. So i'm not one bit worried about his ability to assist kamala harris in making the right decisions. And when you see joe biden and kamala harris today in the situation room dealing with what's going on in the crisis in the mideast and then you see donald trump on the stage politicizing it, going over, just back and forth about the past, saying weird things. That is not what we need. Right now, actually, people should be united, when you have what's going on right now in the mideast. They should take this moment and say, as i'm sure tim walz will, i hope we can stand together on this. That's not how donald trump and how jd vance have been acting. I think it's a very sad harbinger of things to come as they go down this road. I think what's happened in north carolina, the way that kamala harris canceled her campaign activities, went back to be with the president to work on that tragedy that's going on out of that hurricane. That's true leadership. It's not how the other guys have been acting. And when i look at one last thing that i hope we'll see is tim walz's optimism for the future. Those two have been out there having fun, showing a positive, optimistic view of america, and donald trump and jd vance look like they already need couples counseling. It's a really different image and i hope that comes out. This might be the worst job in america, couple's counsellor for donald trump and jd vance. Minnesota senator amy klobuchar, we know you have a very busy night. Thank you very much for stopping by. I'll be in a corner trying to get out. All right. Coming up next, an update from the great steve kornacki, firing up the big board. The public has had pretty wildly different reactions to the rollout of jd vance and tim walz as vice presidential candidates. We're going to take a look at some of that after the break. Stay with us. Jorge has always put the ones he loves first. But when it comes to caring for his teeth he's let his own maintenance take a back seat. Well maybe it's time to shift gears on that. Aspen dental has complete, affordable care all under one roof. Plus $29 exams and xrays for new patients without insurance and 20% off treatment plans for everyone. Making it easier to get started with quality care. It's one more way aspen dental is in your corner. We welcome governor palin and senator biden. Nice to meet you. Can i call you joe? then senator joe biden versus alaska governor sarah palin in 2008. A shot at the beginning of the beloved late great gwen ifill. Sarah palin's in that vice presidential debate was not seen as a plus for the mccain campaign. Nor was her selection as vp overall, separate and apart from how she did in the can i call you joe debate. Tonight, tim walz and jd vance will be trying to score points for their respective campaigns. On a more basic level, this debate is also a chance for the country to get to know each of them. Neither of these candidates had much of a national profile in politics at all before being chosen for their respective tickets. Since the two of them were picked, we have some polling that shows what kind of initial impression they have made on the public at large. What gaps they might be trying to make up for tonight. Let's go to steve kornacki at the big board. Steve. Yeah, let's take a look at the image of these vice presidential candidates coming into tonight, and put it in some context. What we're going to show you, i warn you in advance, a lot of names and numbers are about to pop up on the screen. This is the first of three pages i'm going to show you. We're going back ten elections. That takes us back to 1988. What we're looking at is each vice presidential candidate and what their positives and negative ratings were. We asked this in our nbc poll, do you have a positive view of soandso, a negative view? they're done in order with the highest net favorable at the top of the list. It was a tie. In 2000, joe lieberman, democratic vice presidential nominee, 47 positive, 15 negative. That's a 32point net positive score, and his opponent dick cheney was 49 positive, 17 negative. 32point net positive score. We start getting to where tonight comes in. You work down the list, get into the second part of this page. There's joe biden, we showed that clip from 2008. He was pretty popular at that point. 51/26. Plus 25. You get to the bottom of the first page and there is tim walz. Right now, this is a very recent number, about a week old from nbc polling. Walz with a 40% positive score. A 33% negative score. That's a positive rating there, sort of plus seven. That's where walz fits in historically at the end of this very first page. Now we're going to keep going down the list here. Second page here, there was cheney in '04. He lost some of that popularity. Paul ryan, kamala harris when she ran four years ago. There's joe biden when he ran for reelection. He was under water by that point in 2012. Now we go to the third page where we see jd vance. And these are the worst net ratings of the last ten election cycles. There's vance, again, our most recent nbc poll. 32 positive, 45 negative. That's a net minus 13 favorable rating right there. And you can see there's only two that come under jd vance in all this time, the last ten elections. One is james stockdale, you remember him. Ross perot's running mate, 1992. He said who am i? why am i here, on the debate stage. The overriding thing with stockdale, 13/27. Most people didn't have an opinion of him. Those who did, he was under water by 14 points. Outside of stockdale, there's only one other lower than jd vance, one major party nominee in the last ten who had a worse net favorable score, dan quayle, 1992. Quayle was running for reelection at that point. He was 26% positive, 56% negative. If you remember in the summer of '92, there was an effort by some of george h. W. Bush's brain trust to get quayle to step down from the ticket. They didn't succeed. This is what it looked like for quayle when he took the stage against stockdale and al gore. Negative 30 was his net favorable score. The only major party nominee, that's the only major party nominee in the last ten cycles with a lower net favorable than vance. Walz's numbers aren't the best ever, but vance's are certainly much lower than his. From an image standpoint, vance comes to the stage with more work to do. Looking at that last page there, the sort of bottom of the barrel negative favorables, obviously, dan quayle, 1992, that campaign did not win. Sarah palin, 2008, that campaign did not win. Mike pence in 2020, that campaign did not win. And maybe that's correlation and not causation. Do we have any understanding about how the popularity or unpopularity of a vice presidential pick actually affects the prospect for the ticket overall or is it kind of a scatter shot thing? it ends up being impossible to prove. We could ask the poll question in the exit poll, did soandso's presence on a ticket make you more or less likely to vote. You get to a million different things that probably go into every person's feeling about a candidate and what extent does that enter into the mix. But you're right in terms of the candidates that were unsuccessful. If you're a republican and want a silver lining, this is quayle in '88. '80 is when he was on the debate stage with lloyd bentsen. He said i know jack kennedy, you're no jack kennedy. He was five points underwater, but what's significant is go back in time, look who one of the most popular of all time was. Bentson in the same election was 30 points positive. Quayle was five under water. That was a 35point gap and it did not prevent the quayle republican ticket from getting 426 electoral votes. That's the example republicans would like to point to looking at the vance numbers. Democrats certainly would say, quayle is much worse off four years later in '92 and it didn't work then. And vance is in that double digit negative category now too. The alltime champ, joe lieberman, tied for alltime champ there. He was never a sitting vice president of the united states. He didn't win even with numbers like that. Steve, super interesting. Thank you for doing that. That wasn't too many numbers at all. So debates are unpredictable. The impact of debates is absolutely unpredictable. Debates are also hard to prepare for, but tim walz does have a specific skill set from his time as governor that could help him tonight. We'll have more on that right after this quick break. Stay with us. Don't mind me. I'm just the flu. I'm quite harmless, really. And when people ask, “but aren't you linked to dangerous flu complications like pneumonia, heart attack, and hospitalizations?” i just say, “but i'm just the flu. ” (sniffs. ) it's him! who? i'm just the flu. Demand more from your flu shot. Sanofi higherdose flu vaccines are proven to provide better flu protection than standard dose flu shots in older adults. They've even been shown to better protect against flurelated complications. Don't get fluzone® highdose if you've had a severe allergic reaction to its components, including egg products, or after previous dose of flu vaccine. Don't get flublok® if you've had a severe allergic reaction to its components. Tell your health care professional if you've had severe muscle weakness after a flu shot. Fainting has occurred. People with weakened immune systems may have a lower vaccine response. All flu shots are not the same. Ask for a sanofi higherdose flu vaccine. Talk to your pharmacist or doctor about dangerous ladders. Gutter muck. Fluzone® highdose or flublok®. Yuck. No wonder you hate cleaning your gutters. Good thing there's leaffilter. Our patented filter technology keeps leaves and debris out of your gutters forever. Guaranteed. Call 833 leaffilter to get started. And get the permanent gutter solution that ends clogs for good. They took the time to answer all of our questions. They really put us at ease. End clogged gutters for good. Call 833. Leaf. Filter, or visit leaffilter. Com today. Abortion clearly is not on the ballot in november. Anyone who says the contrary is fearmongering. Thank you. Governor walz you have 90 seconds. There is a clear contrast. My entire career i have trusted women to make their healthcare decisions. Scott was clear in may. He mocked me and said no kidding, sherlock, i'm running for governor to get things done. We will ban abortion. That changed after roe v. Wade. You've heard this go to different places. It is not about trusting women, it is about changing your convictions as the wind blows. This is about life and death. This is about providers making the most personal decisions with a woman with no one else in between. I have made it very clear and everything i've done. I did not have to practice 40 years of medicine to change a position on women's healthcare in the final weeks once we saw how unpopular this was. That was tim walz in the gubernatorial debate running for reelection a couple years ago. His opponent was a republican member of the state senate. A medical doctor with a strong antiabortion record and after the trumpet dominated u. S. Supreme court overturned roe v. Wade, that suddenly became an untenable position and he changed his position and said he no longer wanted to ban abortion in the state. That was tim walz needling him on that. Symone sanderstownsend joins us now and ari melber as well. When you see that clip from a couple years ago does that give us a keyhole view of what we will see tonight? i think the campaign is trying to lower the expectations for governor walz, so when he does well, the bar was so lowend he comes out and does a great job. Look, debate prep works. No, governor tim walz is a former high school teacher. He coached football. His skills were literally honed in the lions den. A former chairman of the democratic governors association. He knows how to go in and lay down an argument. I have heard he also was the architect of weird, so the idea that he is someone who is not as good as j. D. Vance. I understand the messaging strategy you don't buy it. Debates are about a lot of things, but they are always about contrast. I think that is a problem for donald trump and j. D. Vance, because donald trump seems to have second thoughts. J. D. Vance in these forums can come off like a phony trying to be too smart or too cute. There is a difference between debate club and the actual national debate. A difference between being the republican class president type who argues with everyone in the class and the hallway and has talking points. Shut out, ben shapiro. And actually having to deal with things as a governor and leader, which i think vance doesn't have the credibility to draw on that. There is a difference between having the zingers and being a heartbeat away from being the leader of the free world. The contrast tonight, people who don't follow closely may catch this and they have only heard about these folks and have not seen them. That contrast is a question of, do you really think j. D. Vance beyond the oneliners is ready to take over for what is now the oldest presidential candidate ever and ready to become president if they win? he has no accomplishments. Essentially a freshman legislator with no legislation. No experience in government or politics. As you have noted, peter thiel helped bankroll his way to the senate seat. He is supremely unqualified for the executive office of the president and on the debate stage he has to answer. Usually in vice presidential debates the rule is, do no harm. Stick to the message at the top of the ticket and contrast, contrast, contrast, anchored with the message at the top of the ticket. But this particular debate is more about the people sitting in that seat then usual. If history has taught us anything over the past couple of years, who the vice president is does matter. It is a reflection of the judgment of the person at the top of the ticket. What we just saw from steve kornacki in terms of the negative favorables for j. D. Vance. They do not like him and that was donald trump's choice. Even if you don't think you are voting for j. D. Vance, you are voting for a guy who picked him and put him one breath away from the presidency. That itself i feel like integrates. There is a snidely whiplash factor that j. D. Vance has to worry about. This is a double ivy league ticket on the republican side, versus a ticket that is a middleclass ticket on their democrat side. People think of the democrats as the hollywood elite. The elite are on the other side, so j. D. Vance has to worry about coming across as a smartypants against a normal guy. This is a country where the only state or territory in which 50% of americans have a college degree is washington, d. C. Most americans are regular people. The small percentage of people that will appeal to. If he comes off trying to be too much of a smartypants or too nasty against tim walz, most people will relate to the coach a lot more. We are a little over an hour away from tonight's big event. Much more of our special coverage of the vice presidential debate, still to come. Stay with us. Us. (♪♪) looking good, guys! thanks! vacations are better with the credit gods are on your side. I'm coming up! rewards once available to the few are now accessible to the many. Earn points for travel with credit one bank, and live large. San francisco's been through tough times. London breed led us through the pandemic, declaring an emergency before anyone else, saving thousands of lives. From growing up in the western addition housing projects to becoming mayor, london has never given up on the city that raised her. London is getting people off the streets and into care. London never gave up on me. I found a home, and my life is on the right track. London made it super easy for me to open my small business, by cutting city fees. And she's reinventing downtown to make our city vibrant again. She's building 82,000 new homes and helping first time homebuyers, just like us. And london's hiring hundreds of police officers, and arresting drug dealers. San francisco has been through difficult times, but our hard work is paying off. Working together, we're building a better future for the city we all love. Ad paid for by reelect mayor london breed 2024. Financial disclosures are available at sfethics. Org. Welcome back to our special coverage of tonight's vice presidential debate between democrat tim walz and republican j. D. Vance. We know you have every opportunity to watch this anywhere. It makes us all the more grateful that you are here with us. We will make sure you don't regret a thing. Nicolle wallace and lawrence o'donnell are joining us. Happy to have you both here. I should tell you that we are about one hour away from the big event. There will be at least one noticeable difference in the format of the logistics in tonight's vice presidential debate. We are used to seeing them sitting down for the vice presidential debate, but tonight they will be standing. The first time since 2008 that the candidates will be standing behind lecterns. The last two candidates who debated standing up were joe biden and sarah palin in 2008 in the can i call you joe debate. That is also the debate that holds the record for the most watched vice presidential debate ever. 70 million americans watch to that debate. Maybe it is because they were standing up. Maybe that will happen again. The rules of tonight's debate will be largely similar to last month's debate between kamala harris and donald trump. There will be 90 minutes of debate time total. There are two commercial breaks, each four minutes long. There is no audience in the room, so it is just candidates and moderators. The moderators are both from cbs news, norah o'donnell and margaret brennan. Both are experienced debate moderators. They should be great. A candidate asked a question and gets two minutes to answer and then the other candidate gets two minutes to respond. Then each candidate gets another minute for further rebuttals. Then the moderators can give another minute to continue the discussion and by that point it is all soup and no one can follow it anyway. Candidates only get a pen and a pad of paper and a bottle of water and that's it. During the commercial breaks, candidates are not allowed to interact with their campaign staff, although i don't know how they police that. Candidates get two minutes for closing statements. They did a coin toss and whoever won the coin toss was given the choice of whether to go first or second in closing statements. J. D. Vance elected to go second, so tonight he will have the last word at the end of the debate. Unlike the trump and harris debate, the candidate microphones will be on at all times, even when the other candidate is speaking. What does this mean, really? cbs says they nevertheless reserve the right to turn off candidate microphones at their own discretion, but honestly, remember during the harris trump debate even when the microphone was supposedly off for the candidate who was not speaking, if that candidate said something we could all still hear them anyway, so who really knows how that will go or whether or not that will be a big deal, but for the record those were the rules. I am remembering that correctly? in fact it was largely the case, donald trump got a lot more speaking time and largely because he would blow through the stop sign, he would start speaking and then there is an awkward position where there are enough microphones that you can hear him and then you put the microphone on and he talks. That kept happening. We will see. This is a job where we have all done debates and it comes up in this line of work. Running a presidential or vice presidential debate in this political climate, in this time in our new cycle, is not something you would wish on your worst enemy. I have a lot of respect for the moderators tonight and this will be a difficult job. I will say it is interesting all of the stuff about the microphone. It does strike me that trump is singular in the way that he just does not respect boundaries, including the most basic turntaking that you are taught when you are four years old. That is like the groundwork of the conversation. I really do think that at that level, this will be less weird or abnormal, formally, then we are used to from a donald trump debate. That would be my guess. I think that the job that david muir did change to the stakes for the moderators. We can call it a debate, but it is also incumbent on anyone having any role or any privilege to filter any of this out to our viewers, to sort of point out the lies and for david muir to have done what he did and for abc to make a decision that we will moderate and where necessary we will also be loyal to the facts, i think changed the calculation. I don't know what cbs will do. They made it clear that they will not do fact checking, but to the degree that there are 35 days to election day in this country and nothing less than democracy is on the line, that is something that abc changed and i think that will be interesting to see what the cbs approach is and i agree of your assessment of the moderators, but we will see if it changes what cbs does tonight as a matter of truth and fact for both candidates. Since the debate we have seen trump threaten that abc should lose its broadcast license and that he is going to personally sue david muir in a personal capacity for the way he moderated, literally threatening the institution and moderators as a way to intimidate cbs and the moderators. In normal times that alone would be disqualifying. In a primary in normal party would purge him from the ranks. And i think threatening to take away a license that is something he says about a lot of people, a lot of times. That is a threat and again in terms of the truth being on the line and what sarah longwell, there is a lot of this information out there. J. D. Vance is pushing information and disinformation. That matters as much as anything else. Well it turns out that the executives running cbs news did not like what they saw david muir do and they have forbidden these moderators from doing that. No fact checking. That is their decision. They have not announced the journalistic principle that they used to arrive at that decision. Nor do any of these debate shows, they are debate shows, that is what they are, invented by television. It did not exist before television. That rule that says no notes, here is what it means. It means that tim walz can't do this, what i'm going to do right now. He can't pull this up and quote vance saying i go back and forth between thinking that trump is cynical those are your words, mr. Vance. What tim walz is condemned to try to do if he wants to use any of that, is to say to vance, you said that he is america's nazi. He will deny it and neither of the moderators are allowed to correct it. Because there are people working in the television news business who believe they have discovered some principal that they surely think has something to do with notions that they would associate with words like integrity, that prevent a moderator from saying no, this is exactly what you just said. So you know, this is a joke. They should of course have notes. By the way, they should be able to consult with anyone they want during the debate, just like in the oval office. Just wave in your foreign policy advisor. Have her answer the question. She is better at this than you and i would respect that because that is the way it is going to work. I want to see who you are taking the advice from. All of this stuff that we will make a game show style, everything has to work on memory, which means vance can lie and deny about anything he wants to. I mean, exactly. What he said. Somehow the country survived without a vice presidential debate until 1976. Tv invented the first presidential debate in 1960. It took them 16 years for news executives to go, hey, we can do another show. We can do one of these. It gives us a chance to hang out with each other. I would add to what you are saying. I like debates and i realize it is your show, that's fine, but i feel like what you are suggesting is more like an addition for the presidency and i would like to see that in addition. The point that i think lawrence makes so well and the same that you make, too, nicolle. We were dealing in this debate as we were when donald trump debated with a known liar, but the differences that j. D. Vance is an admitted known liar. He actually admitted that he made up the story that has caused death threats in a city in his own state. That he subjected his own constituents to death threats. He admitted that he did that on the tv. So you're talking about somebody who admitted that he will make up stories for affect to get the media to do what he wants. You put him on a stage and then you say you will backtrack from the standard set by abc in which david muir did not interfere with the debate at all. We did not feel that they were intrusive. They weren't intrusive at all. They just allowed the audience to deal with facts and then to decide which of the two sets of actual facts they agreed with. Instead of just allowing one of the people on the stage to simply lie and not intervene. So cbs has decided that they want no part of that. We will see what they do, though. Abc announced they weren't going to do it either and then we saw what happened during the debate, so we will see what happens. One thing again that is important, essentially liable that he has been spreading about folks in springfield. That was the first time if i am not mistaken that he rose to say something and the reason that is so important is he is saying untrue things about people who are not there and cannot defend themselves and it is kind of your job if you are going to put this out on error. That is different than saying the tax cut estimate is this. That is not what they were doing. There are actual human beings in the state of ohio who are being lied about in a way that is incredibly harmful and insidious, that don't have someone standing up there essentially representing their interests. So the role of journalists is to be like, you can't say that. I think it will be an interesting test because even after, as you point out, even after vance admitted we have to make up these stories effectively in order to get you to talk about this issue, essentially copping to the fact that this was a made up story, they have continued to tell this story and it is still having consequences. Whether the moderators bring it up or vance brings it up or walz brings it up. It will be an interesting test if it is decided that once that is fact checked once we can let it out again, despite the fact that it is begging for violence and has caused incredible pain and disruption in that community. The editor of the plains dealer was on my show today. I've had him on a lot. He said that his reporting and expectation is that j. D. Vance will repeat the lie and he said on my show, the town tomorrow will deal with more bomb threats. The interesting thing we will be facing tonight is how they handle moderating a debate in the trump era again tonight, especially given the postdebate threats against abc that we have seen from trump and his campaign. The interesting thing to look for and we have not been talking about this a lot tonight is whether or not tim walz goes on offense. J. D. Vance has been an attack dog for the trump campaign and ticket and has been, as you say, trying to up the negatives on tim walz and all sorts of things, but there has been nobody. The harris campaign has not gone in on j. D. Vance. Yes tim walz has called vance and trump weird, but there is a lot in the record that has not been touched by the campaign at all and his history as a podcast bro who by his own admission is involved in a lot of weird, rightwing subcultures, a phrase he uses about himself, has been completely unplumbed in the campaign so far. I did a segment last night about really strange things j. D. Vance has said about ripping out the american leadership class like a tumor and talking about needing to destroy the core functions of american civil society. Really logical radical stuff and i heard from people afterwards saying not only have i not heard this in the news, i have not heard it from the harris campaign. It is all on tape and in weird podcasts. That presents an interesting tactical choice and an unresolved one, which is how much is this about the top of the ticket and how much is it about the guy across from you? there are tremendous on plumbed the depths to get into, but largely people's voting decisions will be driven by the top of the ticket. One of the things we saw harris to in the first debate is trump can't let certain things go. Harris baited him, knowing he will go back to litigate this. J. D. Vance's job is to please one guy, the guy watching tonight and that guy doesn't want to j. D. Vance to let anything go about donald trump. With the intention of going after kamala harris and tim walz and dirtying them up. So to the extent that you debate him, calling troops suckers and losers, that is airtime not being filled by j. D. Vance attacking you on immigration or whatever and it will be interesting to see the exact same dynamic, knowing, don't let that go. You have to defend him. I will say if you read any of the print press today that was like things to watch for in the debate, it was like here are the things j. D. Vance is going to attack tim walz on and they are all things j. D. Vance has talked about on the campaign trail attacking tim walz. There has not been a list of here are all the things tim walz is going to attack j. D. Vance on. The only thing he has been hit on is you used to say not nice things about donald trump. Well, a lot of americans can relate to that. J. D. Vance in his own terms is a political minefield, one that no one has yet tried to push anybody across. All right, we are about 45 minutes away from the start of the debate. Before that alex wagner will be talking with senator mark kelly. We will also check in with jacob soboroff at a watch party in michigan. We have much more to come. Stay with us. Lakesha: childhood cancer is it's hard. But st. Jude has gotten us through it. St. Jude is hope for every child diagnosed with cancer because the research is being shared all over the world. Always dry scoop before you run. Listen to me, the hot dog diet got me shredded. It's time we listen to science. One a day is formulated with key nutrients to support whole body health. One a day. Science that matters. The city hall insiders spend record high budgets. But our problems get worse. They say this is the best that we can do. They blame the system, but they built the system. I have a plan to change it. With accountability and rooting out corruption, we can tackle our housing and drug crisis, clear the tent encampments and bring our businesses back. Are you ready to stop settling and start demanding more? join me in changing city hall. You can cut tax rates by 20% and still preserve these important preferences. Not mathematically possible. It is mathematically possible. It has been done before. It has never been done before. It has been lowered jack kennedy lowered tax rates. Now you are jack kennedy. If you can tell a joke at your opponents expense and make even your opponent laugh at it, it is a good sign. Vice president biden campaigning against paul ryan. Doing his job of bettering any republican running for vice president who dares invoke the name of jack kennedy. It gets the audience every time and even got paul ryan. Joining us now from a debate watch party in michigan is our beloved friend, jacob soboroff, nbc news national correspondent. Tell us what you are doing in michigan. Reporter: so, steve kornacki is the one that suggested we come to oakland county, michigan and the reason is that the swing in the vote was a 100,000 vote swing in the 2020 election. Essentially a flip to michigan from former president trump to president biden. The county is one of the three most populous counties in the state. Oakland county in recent years has been leaning democrat. When you talk to folks around here, they say you don't go three days without seeing one of four candidates for president or vice president in this area and i think that they are all very excited about what is going on in the election. I was looking at statistics and in 2022, michigan, another reason we wanted to come here, had the highest youth voter turnout of any state. I don't think it is an exaggeration to say that the voters who are here, young voters here tonight or maybe firsttime voters, could potentially be the deciding factor in ultimately tipping this swing state one way or the other. I want to show you what is going on and introduce you to some of the folks who are here, who were watching jeopardy on the local station before all of this got started. I have to tell you, there were a lot of negative advertisements. There is a highly contested senate race here as well and there were a lot of negative advertisements going on as we were watching jeopardy earlier. Let's go this way and i will start here. Each of these tables represents a different student group and full disclosure, it is college. People show up at the last minute. The debate starts at 9:00 and people will show up at 9:00 according to the student body here. Is this the whole student congress here now? just a little bit of the student congress. Rachel, this is cool. You're the student body president. Tell me your name again. Thank you for having us here today. Really appreciate your hospitality. Explain to me the red flag and green flag system. What's the deal with these? during our general body meetings whenever someone agrees with something, or they are excited about what someone said, they do the green flag. Will do this during the debate if they agree with something. The red they will put up if they don't agree. They don't agree or they are upset with what they heard. Reporter: let me ask you, you say the you are the vice president of the student body congress. What is the enthusiasm level? i'm curious because you could be the most consequential voters in michigan, young voters. When president biden was running and now vice president harris has taken his place. Have you seen a change in the enthusiasm of the young voters? i think overall. From the getgo we had a lot of enthusiasm and people excited, but i do agree with kamala harris being the new democrat pick that there is even more enthusiasm because the candidate was introduced pretty close to the election. Is there an issue that matters most to you when we talk about what might be the deciding factor in your vote? that is a hard one. I think a lot of us care about gun control, especially what happened to our peer institution, msu. I think that is big on everyone's minds. Reporter: gun control. Thank you. This is the young republican booth. What is your name? anthony elias. Reporter: and your name? mohammed. Jack. Reporter: everyone here is from those two counties. Where are you from, macomb or oakland? okay, a lot of young republicans from macomb. The top issue for you and what will drive you and your fellow republicans to the polls tonight? economy, honestly. Reporter: what are you guys looking for tonight? what are the issues you want to hear about tonight? what i want to hear about are things that pertain to college students. That means tuition. I've been talking to some of my classmates about tuition and the increasing cost. Besides the economy i want to hear who looks like a vice president, who sounds like one and who can lower my tuition. Reporter: i will be sitting here watching with you guys. Before we go, these guys, third party, young democratic socialist of america. We were talking about this earlier. I'm curious do you think ultimately at the end of all of this you will still vote for a thirdparty candidate given how close it is here or might you go for one of the two main parties? i think it is hard to say. Maybe some of these debates or a change of policy will change my mind, but we have not heard enough from kamala on concrete issues that are important on labor and on palestine, so it is still up in the air. We will vote for who will support our interest and right now that could be anyone. Reporter: with the longshore strike and the auto industry in michigan. Thank you very much. Finally you're the president of the college democrats. That's me. Reporter: your name and how are you feeling? my name is rose and this will be great. This will be a great debate. I am so enthusiastic. Walz will do so well. We have to wait and see. Look, is this another one? i think it is another campaign ad. They just don't stop at michigan. It will be exciting. People are continuing to trickle in and there are some undecided voters. Carl, waved to us. That is carl. We will check in with you after the debate to see how things go. Rachel, back to you. Fantastic and i feel like the red flag and green flag thing has an auto racing vibe to it, which is nice, but also could settle a lot of otherwise rowdy disputes. Thank you, jacob. Reporter: we will send some to the studio. Back to oakland county, michigan. That was interesting. A 100,000 votes swing from trump to biden could have been decisive and not coincidental that there is incredibly high turnout and participation from young people there. It will be fascinating to see the reaction of those folks in that room to the debate. We will squeeze in one more break. The last break before the debate starts. We will go back to the very crowded, perhaps uncomfortably crowded spin room where alex wagner is standing by with arizona senator mark kelly. We have a bunch to get to steaming to the top of the hour and the start of this all important debate. Stay with us. Believe it or not baby. . . You could earn your. . . Master's. . . For under 11 thousand! master's degree for under 11k in less than a year. Earn your competency based master's at university of phoenix. Speaker: my little miracle is beckett. [christina perri, a thousand years] i have died every day waiting for you. We wouldn't be where we are without saint jude. And in turn, we wouldn't be where we are without those people that have donated. Dude, what're you doing? i'm protecting my car. That's too much work. Weathertech is so much easier. . . Lasermeasured floorliners up here, seat protector and cargoliner back there. . . Nice! out here, side window deflectors. . . And mud flaps. . . And the bumpstep, to keep the bumper dentfree. Cool! it's the best protection for your vehicle, new or preowned. Great. But where do i? order. Weathertech. Com. Sfx: bubblewrap bubble popped sound. I have far more experience than many others that sought the office of vice president of this country. I have as much experience in the congress as jack kennedy did when he sought the presidency. I will be prepared to deal with the people in the bush administration if that unfortunate event whatever occurred. Senator benson. Senator. I served with jack kennedy. I knew jack kennedy. Jack kennedy was a friend of mine. Senator, you are no jack kennedy. So, obviously it is the words themselves. It is the way that it landed in the room, but it is also the adam's apple of dan quayle. Gulp. How am i going to get out of this? dan quayle had a bad night against lloyd bentsen in 1988. That was world wrestling level beat down. Then in november nobody remembered because bush and quayle won the election. One detail to watch for in the planning around tonight, you might remember that after the presidential debate between kamala harris and donald trump last month. After the debate was over, immediately after it was over, trump himself showed up in the spin room afterwards. Remember? it was something of a surprise, him showing up in the spin room himself. Essentially treated as an admission of defeat. You don't show up in your own spin room afterwards if you think you won the debate. Kamala harris certainly did not do that. Donald trump showing up there to sort of plead his case seemed to be a tacit recognition that he had done poorly in the debate and might need to do something else to change the perceptions of how he did. That was the last debate in this election cycle. Tonight they have said in advance that j. D. Vance will definitely be in the spin room afterwards and they are saying it even before the debate happens. Among other things it avoids the perception that maybe the reason he is doing it is to clean up something that he thinks went poorly. Regardless they are planning in advance that vance will be there to do his own cleanup afterwards even if they expect him to win. The spin room isn't just for after the debate, it is also for before and alex wagner is squeezed in there for us tonight with a shoehorn. Let's go to alex, standing by with arizona democratic senator mark kelly. Reporter: i am here with a shoehorn and democratic senator mark kelly. Senator kelly, great to see you in these cozy environs. Pretty tight. Reporter: i had to lean over to speak to jason miller, senior advisor of the trump campaign and he was giving me insight into how j. D. Vance and his team are thinking about the event tonight and it is clear that they want to win in the classic sense of the debate. They want to land the points and the victors, but it is also clear that they understand this is a personality contest to some degree. Jason let me in on a secret that i think has not been reported. In addition to his wife and trump campaign advisors and the majority whip who is playing tim walz in debate prep, j. D. Vance had some of his friends from cincinnati come to the debate prep to watch his performance and give him a gut check. Basically like hey, that sounds weird or that is good. The people who know him best. I hope they will be telling him, how are you going to explain this bad deal that donald trump has for the american people. That is what they should tell him, because it really is. Consider the stuff in project 2025. $4000 increase for families. Taking away more women's healthcare rights and so many other things that i don't think the american people want. Reporter: how are you thinking about the debate? as someone who has been a surrogate for the campaign and debated before, you know this format well. What matters most? is it the winning part of it or is it establishing yourself as a likable person? i think governor walz is incredibly likable. He is a good friend of mine. He served with gabby in the house and they are really close. The right guy for the job. J. D. Vance is a yale trained mouthpiece. Donald trump feeds him whatever lie he has of the day and he goes out and he repeats it. I think that is what we are going to see, but i also expect that we will see vision. The vision of kamala harris. How she wants to move this country forward. Donald trump wants to drag us back to the past and he has pointed out, he likes his tax cuts for billionaires. He is a billionaire. He gave a giant tax cut for billionaires. As commanderinchief he shredded our alliances. I was in the baltics, in finland. They are really worried about our election, they really are. And then on the issue of women's healthcare, he has taken away this fundamental right. I was in georgia last weekend, about a week and a half ago. I was in georgia. There was a woman who died because she cannot get her reproductive rights because donald trump took that away when he got rid of roe. Reporter: you know you are from the only swing state in the country where there are active border crossings and i wonder if you can talk a little bit about immigration. Katie britt, your colleague in the senate was saying, i am paraphrasing here, it is clear that vance will go hard on walz on immigration. You were with the vice president when she made a trip to douglas, arizona, and took the issue head on. How much work did she do on that issue? how much did she neutralize that issue for her running mate tonight? i was excited to have her there. Went to the border with her. She had a chance to meet with the sheriff, the mayors, the head of border patrol in that region. The head of cbp. County commissioners. It was a great trip. She clearly understands this issue. She was a prosecutor, attorney general and a senator from a border state. She gets it. She knows what we need to do. What donald trump did was kill that bipartisan deal that we negotiated with republicans and kamala harris in the white house. That is what j. D. Vance needs to explain. He needs to explain why he and other republicans ran away from a border security deal that we all got together and negotiated. The way this thing was supposed to work. By the way, what that deal did was going to mean more pay for border patrol agents. If you are a border patrol agent, you are now getting paid less than you would have if donald trump did not tell them to kill that deal. We were going to hire 1500 more agents. Fentanyl detection machines at the border. All of these things would help border patrol do their jobs. That is why the border patrol union endorsed this. I want to hear an explanation from j. D. Vance, why he thought it was a good idea not to support that legislation. To allow donald trump to kill it. Kamala harris has made it clear she will sign that into law the first day if we can bring it back and i think when donald trump is gone, we are going to be able to bring that back. I do wonder whether j. D. Vance will even respond to the notion that trump killed the bill, because trump denied that he had anything to do with the bill dying. It is another lie from donald trump. Reporter: right and i wonder how concerned you are that cbs has said clearly that the moderators will not be fact checking. There is a qr code on the screen if you watch it on cbs where you can link to the live fact checking from the cbs network. Listen, my mom does not know how to use a qr code. I'm still a little rusty on it. Use your camera. Reporter: thank you, senator. Important information. You use your camera. But are you worried about the truth actually being buried tonight? the vance trump ticket has shown no issue with lying. Sure, donald trump and his dumpster fire of debate performance against kamala harris. I mean, he had dozens of lies. Outright lies. He does not care about the truth. You know, j. D. Has been parroting many of these lies. It is his job to do that. He is very welltrained at this. The guy went to yale. He is good at being a mouthpiece for donald trump. Of course i am concerned about him repeating stuff from donald trump that is not true and then it is unfortunate that the american people have to sort through this. Do you think that is something that governor walz needs to do? i hope he does. It is a challenging thing to do on the fly and i think it is challenging for you guys, you know when you are hosting one of these debates and having to moderate a debate. I think it is challenging to do. I think it is challenging for the other person to raise the bs flag in the middle of the debate, but if he can do that, he should. Reporter: i do have to ask you because you will be spinning at the end of all of this. Approximately 7000 people in a 22 foot space. J. D. Vance will be in the spin room. First of all, what do you think that signals that he is there? already telegraphing i think it signals that he is pretty confident. Reporter: you use it as a signal of confidence? yeah, the guy went to yale. He trained to do this, to become an effective mouthpiece for donald trump. Reporter: are you prepared with shin guards, elbow guards? i know j. D. I don't need that. I was in the senate with him for a year and a half. Reporter: all right. Senator mark kelly, he knows j. D. He doesn't need the elbow guards. We will carry a shoehorn with us just in case. It's great to have time with you. Back to you, rachel. Thank you, alex, and thank you, senator. Chris, you busted out laughing when he suggested the qr code needs instructions to go with it. I thought it was useful information from the senator about how you do use a qr code. Is a person who has lots of screenshot photos of qr codes on my camera phone because even that part i can do wrong. Useful. I took a note. I feel like alex saying, thank you, senator. We are hearing a lot of, spin, counter spin, about whether or not expectations are reasonably part of the game. Whether any of it is genuine. The thing you can't spin is the stakes and this is a tied election. You can't say do no harm. Each site has to help the other side win, because this is the last chance that the two campaigns are going to have to have both parties are presented on television at the same event. This is the last time americans who have any political preference will see the competing sides together, maybe in four years. Maybe ever. Maybe this will be the last one. 35 days out, as the last major event of the campaign season, i feel like it does not matter whether you think these guys are good debaters or not. The stakes of this are so high, one side absolutely has to win. I think that lawrence used up our curse already, so i won't say it, but it is absolute bs that these two aren't the cream of the crop and both want to be the heartbeat away from the presidency. They will both be very good and we should expect nothing less than that, right? the two people that each of the people at the top of the ticket picked. It is going to be fine. I think what is so uncomfortable, i did not talk to anyone in the last 48 hours who was not incredibly anxious and anxiety creates bizarre feelings and i only learned about avoiding the reactivity on my medication app which i only listen to like once every three months. The key is for the campaigns not to be reactive and not react to the emotions and not respond to the anxiety. The truth is that what the american people want and deserve is not what the rules of the debate are. It is not whether they are allowed to fight. If they are tuning in and they don't have the privilege of watching what you do every night, they want to see what each of these people is going to do for them and what i sincerely hope is that the walls harris campaign, they have been stellar at doing it. They are batting 1. 000 at blocking out the noise. Harris was facing more insane expectations than anyone in history. She had to be commanding, she had to be strong, she cannot be combative. It was insane the things that people on her side said she had to do and she came out and did that and this. They are batting 1. 000 at blocking out the noise. She has this mantra, to move toward the light. What i would advise democrats to do is to stay in the light. People watching, they don't care what the rules were. They don't care what abc did. That is our world. That isn't the world they are going to watch tonight and they are going to see, who cares about me? that is the single mission. Make people understand that you care about them and if that is the contest and that is the measure and those are the only people who are undecided. They really don't matter to the campaign as a strategic matter. Yes, they want to keep the base enthusiastic and happy. They need to keep knocking on doors, but they need to reach people only paying attention to politics in the form of these debates and tim walz just needs to be tim walz. Can i read you one thing? the washington post solicited letters to the editor from springfield ohio, asking people to give a man on the street view of what was happening. Let me redo this letter. Susan read me this the other night and started crying. I live in springfield, ohio. For many of 35 years i've lived here i had to explain where the town is and now everyone knows or thinks they do because donald trump and j. D. Vance have appropriated the town as a set for their racist falsehoods. Springfield lives under a pall of fear. The local committee asked supporters to wave signs and flags outside their building during meetings because many members were afraid to attend. Children fear attending schools because of bomb threats. A friend opted out of her regular game night because she does not want to be out after dark. Worried parents have insisted on taking the children home from a local university and of course many of our haitian neighbors are terrified to lose their homes. You know who is not afraid to go out and about in springfield? cowboys, neonazis. Some of these people paraded with flags and rifles during our jazz festival. They forced local officials to cancel the annual culture fest celebration of diverse arts and music. These far right groups clearly feel as though they have not just permission, but encouragement from the republican candidates. It is unsettling to live in this atmosphere. Mr. Trump hopes to make every town springfield where the angry are emboldened by lies and the people they seek to publish punish live in fear. Trust me, you don't want to live in trump's america. Americ. Won't name here from springfield, ohio. I feel that impact that can happen even in a debate show from tonight. Yes those rumors were, those lies were being spread as part of the campaign. But trump said trump said it to tens of thousands of people. Feel the coalition is the country is much better than this. It just is. There's more people who don't want that more than do. Or j. D. Vance and tim walz cost of college in michigan. Fundamentally to your point about what reaches to people, there is a level at which this is a referendum on this sort of core question. Decency and the degree to which we are bound to each other in some deep sense or we're going to turn on each other. I think that's the theory of the case that they have pursued it. And tim walz is a very good messenger on that question. Do we want people to come or do we want to destroy them. The question about trump was he nixon or america's hitler. I can assure him that richard nixon imwould never have done what jd vance did to springfield, ohio. Of all the crimes that nixon committed as president, he never came close nto doing anything like what j. D. Vance did to springfield. And i ncwonder what tim walz will do with it tonight. Whether or not the moderators bring it up i feel like it's sort of on tim walz to try to hold him to account for that. After vance admitted it wasn't true. I think we have to also remember that this is all taking place in a reality that people are already voting. Some of us have already gotten our ballots in the mail. So these guys have an opportunity to impact people's behavior tomorrow. That opin several states people can act on what they do tonight tomorrow. They're not doing this in the context of what they're going to do ofnovember 5th but they'r doing it in the context of what they're doing right now. What they feel. Politics is not about you when you run for office. The r most important thing that vice president kamala harris did was she didn't lean to her own identitity. She ignored it and tried to bounce it off itof her. She kept trying to bring it back to the people who were watching. She can say whatever he wants about me but it isn't about me. It's about you and what i want to do for you. That's really the sweet spot that i think tim walz can lean into tonight because he's really good at that. He even took the nastiness and cruelty of trump and said we're not supposed to live in fear of them because they're not just dangerous, they're just weird. And he demystified them. He is actually really good at that. He's good at taking the politics of hate and division and turning it back to, but wait a minute, myself as a governor, i don't care what people called me. I thought girls should be able to get you know if they needed, their supplies for the month in their time of the month in the bathroom, i'm going to do that no matter what you say about me. Say whatever you want to say about me i'm about my constituents. Where as this guy aon the othe side was willing to subject his own constituents to possible death for him. For himself. That not for america, he did that for himself and for donald trump to get power. That's the only reason that j. D. Vance has done what he's done to haitian immigrants and to his own people in springfield ohio. Because he could give a dam about those people. What he cares about is that one guy. Pleasing trump, getting power for trump and jd vance. The most important thing about this debate. The ousmartest thing said about it is from elenore clift. And i will just say she's older than joe biden. And i only say that to show her wisdom. Because her campaign is so very close, it's going to be decided by a microscopic reason. Something could d happen in thi debate tonight that decides this presidential election because it is so close. So that's why you're watching. Let's bring back in alex wagner bwho's joined in the sp room at d the sight of the debate. By our colleague, former senator mccaskel. Good to see you. Let me ask you. The walz comes from buttigieg. He suggested that walz is going to go after vance' faux populism. How does that play for you. Yale, hedge fund, got to the senate on the back of a million that gave him $30 million that just wrote a check to elect him. Listen, this debate i think alex is going to be at the end of the debate who do you want to have as your neighbor. Who do you think would help you out? as a neighbor. Who's the kind elof person you would like your children to be around when they're growing up. I think jd vance is going to have a hard time. That's what got kamala harris was his willingness to be vulnerable and relatable and communicate really clearly. Walz did. Yeah, that's why she was so taken by him. He was real, he was not all of that. And you know j. D. Vance doesn't know who he is. There is no core there. As we talked on nicole's show today. Tim walz knows who he is. I think if he shows who he is tonight those folks that are undecided or maybe thought they didn't think they wanted to vote, they could be moved. I was talking to crockett: vance might score points but at the end of the day walz is relatable and people like him. It comes down to that feeling. That neighborly feeling you're talking about. He can't let him put him on defense. He needs to let things bounce off of him like the vice president did in her debate. At tend of the day, he is the guy that taught high school. He is the guy that ran for office not with a billionaire stroke and a big check. He is a guy that ran in an area that was not democratic and so he's got these skills if he just doesn't try to get caught up in how big the moment is. Yeah, it's a big moment. It's a big moment. Back to you, rachel. Excellent, alex and claire in the spin room for us. As you can see, tight quarters there. We're just a ancouple of minute from the start of the debate. We're expecting after the debate is over for that place to be a little nutty. Depending on whatever happens in the debate both sides are going to have a lot of urgency in terms of what they're doing. Both sides have half a dozen surrogates and a lot of them are high profile. Who are going to be there. It's a tight spot and there's a lot of media in there and i'm glad i'm not there. I think what claire said is right. I think this idea that, again, it all matters right. It matters what the rules are. It matters who stands up for the truth. Those are the little slices that could live on at the moment. I think the idea of what's at stake is what's in the handful of states. Judging by the audience, it could be the largest audience that tunes into a contrast. And ii think there just has to be a quite confidence in what claire was saying. Vice president harris had the pick of this incredible bench of bright democratic talent. And she picked walz. I think when she was asked what her best decision was by our colleague stephanie ruhl. She said my gut told me to pick tim walz. I think there will be a moment where it all sort of makes perfect sense to ofeverybody watching that this was a perfect compliment to her. Also, i would say. One of the things in terms of your heterms rachel that this i a last shot. Don't under estimate what people don't know. That's a lot of negatives. But i read an undecided voters. I don't like trump but i don't know where harris is on climate change with trump. Are there voters who don't know that rowe v. Wade was overturned v. By donald trump an will keep it overturned and will urprobably do worse. And the harris campaign wants to bring back rowe v. Wade. Or that the state of the economy is fantastic. The walz or the trumpvance ticket they think they're running on the economy trbut it only where they can lie about the economy. Walz is a fantastic economic guy. When trump picked vance it was after vance made clear that if there was another situation like january sixth wif there w a violent mob attacking the capital demanding the vice president throw out the real votes and instead say, maybe trump won instead let's decide it here. Vance said absolutely i would have said let's fight it out. Let's have multiple elector sites. I would have done what the mob was trying to get pence to do. I would have done the cue. And then, trump picked him. I'm not sure, i think everybody in e,republican politics has tried to down play what january 6th was. I think the country at large knows january 6th is very bad. J. D. Vance is a guy that says not only was january 6th not that bad but it should have worked. The mob should have worked. And he would have. He would have if he

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