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Bank runs and central bank digital currency | VOX, CEPR Policy Portal


David Andolfatto
In the ongoing debate on the design of central bank digital currency (CBDC), several authors have expressed important concerns about financial stability risk. As CBDC would provide depositors with an account at the central bank, they may trigger a run on the banking system. In case of systemic uncertainty about banks, holding risk-free CBDC could indeed become more attractive than bank deposits (Allen et al. 2020, Bindseil and Panetta 2020, Fernández-Villaverde et al. 2020, Juks 2018, Mersch 2018). These concerns have inspired proposals for a special design of CBDC (Bindseil and Panetta 2020) and are considered in official reports of central banks about the future of money (BIS et al. 2020, ECB 2020). Nonetheless, no empirical evidence exists to date to inform such a claim. Can central bank digital currencies cause bank runs? ....

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Commodity prices and banking crises | VOX, CEPR Policy Portal


Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe, Martín Uribe
After a period of widespread financial instability in the 1980s and 1990s, mostly concentrated among commodity exporters, only a handful of developing countries have been hit by systemic banking crises over the past two decades. Several factors have contributed to this state of affairs, including an extended period of sustained economic growth, financial deepening, and favourable external conditions, most notably a protracted period of stable and high commodity prices. Figure 1 shows that banking crises in low-income countries are clustered between the late 1980s and the early 1990s, when commodity prices declined and volatility increased, especially at the high end of the distribution. By contrast, crises have been almost absent in the 2000s, in correspondence with the commodity super-cycle. But since ‘graduation’ from banking crises has so far proven elusive (Reinhart et al. 2010), when the commodity super-cycle came to an end in th ....

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