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Abstract Using business survey data on German manufacturing firms, this paper provides tests for hypotheses formulated in capital market imperfection theories that predict distributional effects in the transmission mechanism of monetary policy. Effects of monetary policy shocks on the business conditions of firms of several size classes are analysed, with the finding of considerable asymmetry. As predicted by theory, small firms are affected more strongly than large firms. To test whether these effects are reinforced when the economy is in a business cycle downturn, the paper employs a new estimation strategy: impulse response analysis conditional on Markov-switching regimes. The findings are supportive of the theoretical hypotheses: in a business cycle downturn, the distributional effects of monetary policy transmission are indeed reinforced. ....
US Recession Watch, January 2021 - Slowing Growth Evident as Calendar Turns Advertisement US Recession Watch Overview: Although US Treasury yields have risen in recent weeks, 4Q’20 growth expectations have slid. A double dip recession may or may not be avoided in 1Q’21, depending upon the timing of US fiscal stimulus. The New York Nowcast estimate for 4Q’20 GDP is at +2.58%, while the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model is pointing to loftier+7.5% growth. Rates markets continue to forecast no change in the Federal Reserve’s main interest rate through January 2022; the Fed has pledged to keep rates low through 2023. Making Sense of US Economic Data ....
Nomura Spots A BOJ Catalyst That Could Trigger Even More Treasury Turmoil zerohedge.com - get the latest breaking news, showbiz & celebrity photos, sport news & rumours, viral videos and top stories from zerohedge.com Daily Mail and Mail on Sunday newspapers.
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US Recession Watch, December 2020 - Yield Curve Hides Slowing Economy Advertisement US Recession Watch Overview: The US Treasury yield curve has steepened in recent weeks (long-end rates rising faster than short-end rates), but that might not mean that the US economy is out of the woods from the coronavirus pandemic. Q4’20 Atlanta Fed GDPNow projects an +11.2% real quarterly growth rate, but data momentum is slowing, and it’s possible that failure by the US Congress to agree to fiscal stimulus will handicap the economy in Q1’21. Traders continue to anticipate no change in interest rates by the Federal Reserve through January 2022; the Fed has promised to keep rates low through 2023. ....