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Top News In New York Nowcast Today - Breaking & Trending Today

After Hawkish Fed, Dollar Turns to Core PCE Inflation

The Fed decided to keep rates steady last week, but policymakers appeared in hawkish armor, projecting a higher rate path than back in June. The new dot plot continued pointing to another quarter point hike by the end of this year, but only to two rate cuts during 2024. More specifically, officials now see rates coming down to 5.1%, 50bps higher than June’s 4.6% projection. ....

United Kingdom , Atlanta Fed , New York Nowcast ,

US Recession Watch, January 2021 - Slowing Growth Evident as Calendar Turns

US Recession Watch, January 2021 - Slowing Growth Evident as Calendar Turns
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US Recession Watch Overview:
Although US Treasury yields have risen in recent weeks, 4Q’20 growth expectations have slid. A double dip recession may or may not be avoided in 1Q’21, depending upon the timing of US fiscal stimulus.
The New York Nowcast estimate for 4Q’20 GDP is at +2.58%, while the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model is pointing to loftier+7.5% growth.
Rates markets continue to forecast no change in the Federal Reserve’s main interest rate through January 2022; the Fed has pledged to keep rates low through 2023.
Making Sense of US Economic Data ....

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FX Week Ahead - Top 5 Events: UK Jobs, Australia Inflation, Fed Meeting, Mexico & US GDP

FX Week Ahead - Top 5 Events: UK Jobs, Australia Inflation, Fed Meeting, Mexico & US GDP
FX Week Ahead Overview:
The last week of the month brings about the usual smattering of event risk from around the globe.
The US economy will be in particular focus over the coming days, with the first Federal Reserve rate decision of the Biden presidency and the initial Q4’20 US GDP report on the docket.
01/26 TUESDAY | 07:00 GMT | GBP Employment Change (OCT) & Unemployment Rate (NOV)
The UK economy has been plagued by the emergence of the B117 strain of COVID-19, which UK public health officials have warned is not only more transmissible, but also has a higher rate of fatality. To no surprise, with surging infection rates in the fall and UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson pushing lockdowns at the onset of winter, UK economic data is entering a dark period. ....

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