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US Recession Watch, January 2021 - Slowing Growth Evident as Calendar Turns


US Recession Watch, January 2021 - Slowing Growth Evident as Calendar Turns
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US Recession Watch Overview:
Although US Treasury yields have risen in recent weeks, 4Q’20 growth expectations have slid. A double dip recession may or may not be avoided in 1Q’21, depending upon the timing of US fiscal stimulus.
The New York Nowcast estimate for 4Q’20 GDP is at +2.58%, while the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model is pointing to loftier+7.5% growth.
Rates markets continue to forecast no change in the Federal Reserve’s main interest rate through January 2022; the Fed has pledged to keep rates low through 2023.
Making Sense of US Economic Data ....

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US Recession Watch, December 2020 - Yield Curve Hides Slowing Economy


US Recession Watch, December 2020 - Yield Curve Hides Slowing Economy
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US Recession Watch Overview:
The US Treasury yield curve has steepened in recent weeks (long-end rates rising faster than short-end rates), but that might not mean that the US economy is out of the woods from the coronavirus pandemic.
Q4’20 Atlanta Fed GDPNow projects an +11.2% real quarterly growth rate, but data momentum is slowing, and it’s possible that failure by the US Congress to agree to fiscal stimulus will handicap the economy in Q1’21.
Traders continue to anticipate no change in interest rates by the Federal Reserve through January 2022; the Fed has promised to keep rates low through 2023. ....

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