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MSNBC Decision 2021 November 3, 2021 00:05:00

Ballot. terry mcauliffe, when he was governor, did something that s really important, was that former felons, people who served time, he took them off the jim crow list of states where they couldn t vote. he made it easier to vote in so many ways. if youngkin benefits from that, it will be a weird thing. in pure absolute value civic terms, more people voting is a good thing. having their votes count and finding it easy to vote, not having barriers, that s a good thing. consultants will have to change their game to not be able to count it, to not count on it being a partisan comfort. while we have been talking about this, steve has been eeping. it looks like the vote is coming in faster. we are up to 40% statewide. we talked at the start of the night, we were wondering if the traditional model of the republicans building a big lead in the vote tally and then the democrats trying to reverse it late with a lot of vote in ....

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MSNBC Decision 2021 November 2, 2021 23:51:00

Dramatically if it s the mail, it could come up differently. we are trying to find out what s missing in loudoun county. we are at more than three-quarters of the vote. it s a critical question what type of vote remains. if youngkin is able to finish where he is, that is more than his campaign was hoping for. again, if that were to get knocked down three or four points, it would be more in line with what the mcauliffe campaign was hoping for. we will try to get clarity. we have three-quarters in. see if we can get completed vote shortly. reset statewide, a little more than a quarter of the vote. while we watch those results come in, i want to bring in senator mark warner, former u.s. senator from virginia, former virginia governor. senator warner, it s a pleasure to have you with us tonight. thanks for being here. thank you, rachel. it s another exciting night in ....

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MSNBC Decision 2021 November 2, 2021 23:41:00

Together all of these things that you re saying. it seems to me like if i had a choice right now behind the veil of ignorance to be either terry mcauliffe or glenn youngkin, i would rather be glenn youngkin. although nothing is determinative, nothing is defined, nothing is decided, it s all still too early to call, but from the numbers we re seeing, nothing is bad numbers from youngkin. however, as i say, a lot of this is same-day vote. and i can t emphasize enough the difference between the same-day vote goes. it s the most pro-republican you re going to see. in 2020, let s take fairfax county, the big one that we re all waiting on here. so in fairfax county, and remember in 2020, they didn t officially report this out by method, but here s what we can glean from the results in 2020 in fairfax county. i want to take one look here to make sure i got this right. in the absentee vote in fairfax county, that is to say the main maile vote plus the in-person early vote in fairfax county i ....

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MSNBC Decision 2021 November 2, 2021 23:48:00

Compare that to 2020. that s a drop of five points, mcauliffe versus biden. again, there s a large african-american population right here. if you re mcauliffe, you can probably afford statewide about five points of slippage give or taker from joe biden s 2020 number. remember, joe biden, 54, donald trump, 44. you could probably lose about five points and still potentially eke out a victory. if you re the mcauliffe campaign, this is right on the line of what you want to be seeing. you don t want to see any worse than this. you could potentially get by with getting 52% in brunswick county. i also believe, now, getting into northern virginia here, this is the city of manassas, and it looks like you ve got completed vote in manassas. again, northern virginia, core democratic area. and you see here, terry mcauliffe, 50 this is a ten-point margin. basically round it to 55/45. here you go, biden this is slippage now of a little bit more than six points. ....

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MSNBC Decision 2021 November 2, 2021 23:44:00

Question of the same-day vote to answer your question, i m throwing all sorts of numbers and terms out here. but to answer your question, when i m looking at these numbers right now, it s not at all clear to me, despite the fact that mcauliffe is running at 73.7 right now, it s not at all clear to me that youngkin is in any better shape than trump is in a place like fairfax or statewide. bec completed counties here. the decision desk just changed its characterization of this race, which is an important change. it was too early to call, it is now considered to be too close to call. with that tranche of vote that we just got in from fairfax county, which steve was just going through, you will note overall oh, it s changed back again. we went youngkin had been ahead overall in virginia in terms of the amount of vote that we had in, then mcauliffe had shifted to being ahead when we got that first tranche of vote ....

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