might move in youngkin s reference. 25 points for joe biden last year. 25 now sitting at 11 for mcauliffe over youngkin. that s a significant gain for youngkin in this county. we will see exactly where it lands. as you have been talking about, if you are youngkin s campaign, your number coming in, you want to hit 43%, 44%. you would love to do better. we will see what the remaining same day vote, if he is able to tick that up to 45. if they could hit 45 in loudoun, they would be ecstatic. if you are youngkin, you are looking at a number there that you were hoping to get tonight. we will take a quick break. we will come back as the results continue to come in. we will be back with our political analyst and more with steve. stay with us.
vote that s out, every 1% or 2%, you want to eat into the margin. terry will eat into the martin. to get back to loudoun numbers are a warning sign. i want to jump in while we are talking about loudoun. i believe steve got in vote. we will go back to our friends in a second. we told you we were waiting open a terry mcauliffe friendly pile of absentee ballots. a lot has now just been counted. a minute ago, we were showing you about a five point gap in loudoun. this is not all of the vote. there is still some same day vote to come in. it s changed. mcauliffe with an 11 point advantage in loudoun county. what is to come, there are still same day precincts to report. that might move with what comes in for the rest of the way, it
hear steve say that that mail-in vote is overwhelmingly democratic. that s a shift in the way elections have been. democratic voters were same-day voters. day of election voters. then they became early voters. republicans owned absentee. i wonder depending how this goes for youngkin, how the republican party is going to feel about giving away absentee, going forward will become more and more the way that modern elections happen. it s more convenient. if they are giving this to democrats i mean, let s say we will have 3 million vote in virginia. i m picking a number out of a hat. over a million people are going to be will have voted by mail. what will be interesting to see is not only how campaigning changes, because you can t count on any one category of ballot being leaning any one way, but it may be we are looking at higher turnout in every state, in every election from here on
ballot. terry mcauliffe, when he was governor, did something that s really important, was that former felons, people who served time, he took them off the jim crow list of states where they couldn t vote. he made it easier to vote in so many ways. if youngkin benefits from that, it will be a weird thing. in pure absolute value civic terms, more people voting is a good thing. having their votes count and finding it easy to vote, not having barriers, that s a good thing. consultants will have to change their game to not be able to count it, to not count on it being a partisan comfort. while we have been talking about this, steve has been eeping. it looks like the vote is coming in faster. we are up to 40% statewide. we talked at the start of the night, we were wondering if the traditional model of the republicans building a big lead in the vote tally and then the democrats trying to reverse it late with a lot of vote in
the problem is, even when we re getting 60% to 65% of people innishuse, we re losing some of them in head to head races. i think we also have to improve the way we deliver those messages, make it stronger, more guttural, more controversial even. and also don t let them be the only ones playing the culture war. like with josh hawley talking about, oh, these poor men in america, they don t work anymore and they re obsessed with video games and pornography because their masculinity is being challenged. how ridiculous is that? mock these people and be tougher, but understand that newt gingrich is now the rule. that is the rule. yeah. so if you go to a boxing match, they re going to come in with heavier gloves and a knife in their boot. they re not going to play fair. we have to know that. you know your way around that. david plouffe, our special guest on a big night. thank you. that does it for me, ari melber. don t go anywhere. our special coverage with rachel, nicolle, joy, and ste