northern virginia would change. that s the pattern that s shaping up here. the old patterns prevailing. the republican youngkin, a lot as you can see, a lot of the rural areas, the republican friendly parts of the state in right now. youngkin is building a substantial lead. it s going to shrink and very significantly. there s a lot out here in northern virginia. let me take you through two ways of looking at this. what is shaping up right now is two key questions. number one is, outside of the immediate suburbs of washington, d.c., the suburbs of richmond, outside of that more strongly republican counties can youngkin match or exceed donald trump s numbers? we are getting more that fit that pattern. we are not too far from charlottesville here. we are basically all complete. here is youngkin by 30 points. let s compare that to how donald trump did last year. trump won here by 23.
castro. i start with you david and something you said a couple hours ago. how are you feeling about the glass breaking in loudoun? not very good. that s the darkest part of the map. it s 150,000 votes now that mcauliffe is down. that margin will narrow. he is going to pick up a lot of votes in arlington, a lot of vote in fairfax. even if he dominates the rest of the vote, if it s mail vote, he still will be south of 20%. that s deeply concerning. i think that loudoun has been on a journey. when we won for the first time, it seemed historic. it s a long time. biden won it by 25 points. that s the thing that concerns me. that s a lot of raw vote. when you are down 150,000 votes, for the rest of the 58% of the
vote that s out, every 1% or 2%, you want to eat into the margin. terry will eat into the martin. to get back to loudoun numbers are a warning sign. i want to jump in while we are talking about loudoun. i believe steve got in vote. we will go back to our friends in a second. we told you we were waiting open a terry mcauliffe friendly pile of absentee ballots. a lot has now just been counted. a minute ago, we were showing you about a five point gap in loudoun. this is not all of the vote. there is still some same day vote to come in. it s changed. mcauliffe with an 11 point advantage in loudoun county. what is to come, there are still same day precincts to report. that might move with what comes in for the rest of the way, it
gloucester. this is a chunk in essex. the biggest democratic vote producing county in new jersey. newark and the suburbs. you can see biden did 56 point victory. a scattering of votes here. about 15,000 so far. murphy doing what you would expect a democrat to do. again, tonight, we want to see monmouth county when it comes in. we want to look at somerset, morris, suburban counties that have moved away from the republicans. we want to see if ciattarelli can make massive inroads. they were strongly biden in 2020. it s a lot for him to pull out. i want to bring into our conversation our friends, our political analysts, claire mccaskill, david ploth and julio
ballot. terry mcauliffe, when he was governor, did something that s really important, was that former felons, people who served time, he took them off the jim crow list of states where they couldn t vote. he made it easier to vote in so many ways. if youngkin benefits from that, it will be a weird thing. in pure absolute value civic terms, more people voting is a good thing. having their votes count and finding it easy to vote, not having barriers, that s a good thing. consultants will have to change their game to not be able to count it, to not count on it being a partisan comfort. while we have been talking about this, steve has been eeping. it looks like the vote is coming in faster. we are up to 40% statewide. we talked at the start of the night, we were wondering if the traditional model of the republicans building a big lead in the vote tally and then the democrats trying to reverse it late with a lot of vote in