Our Federal Reserve doesn’t control events around the world, like a ship being stuck in the Suez Canal, or the current Red Sea geopolitical aggression, which can impact our inflation rate or how much money companies or individuals earn. The world changes. What was it like going to a concert 60 years ago? This will give you an idea. Concerts have become huge moneymakers. Along those lines, but in a different industry, the Financial Times reports that JPMorgan took almost a fifth of total US bank profits in the first nine months of 2023! Too big to fail? For those playing along at home, the ten largest banks, when that concert was filmed, were Bank of America, Chase Manhattan Bank, First National City Bank of New York, Chemical Bank New York Trust Company, Morgan Guaranty Trust Company, Manufacturer’s Hanover Trust Company, Bank of California, Security First National Bank, Banker’s Trust Company, and First National Bank of Chicago. Now the list is JPMorgan Chase, Ban
Here in Chicago, there are several restaurants that are “the place” to have afternoon tea. Tomorrow is the 250th anniversary of the Boston Tea Party. (And no, I was not working on a trading desk slinging MBS back then.) In those days, news traveled via word of mouth, rare newspapers, sermons, personal letters, or broadsides. People had time to think about things and contemplate. Nowadays, there are plenty of places from which to glean financial news. Unfortunately, the press is not one for putting good news in the headlines, and Navy Fed finds itself in the crosshairs of CNN breaking news of data on black and white borrower approval rates. Can regulators be far behind on this one? Industry vet Brian B. asks, “How much wealth was not created for minorities because of these actions? How did they treat other groups, i.e., single females, or Hispanics?” Lenders everywhere are interested in passing more costs on to borrowers regardless of race, and if so which co
“What do you call James Bond having a bath? Bubble 07.” In different bond matters, mortgage rates will always be higher than Treasury rates, in part because of the prepayment risk in mortgages that doesn’t exist with Treasury bonds. With the drop in rates, sales management personnel at lenders are busy figuring out how best to remind the staff about EPO (early payoff) penalties levied by investors while at the same time working on ways to save money besides furloughing, cutting staff, outsourcing, and re-doing vendor contracts. The recent decline in rates and increase in applications is welcome: According to Curinos, November 2023 funded mortgage volume decreased 11 percent YoY and 10 percent MoM. In the Retail channel, funded volume was down 22 percent YoY and 10% MoM. The average 30-year conforming retail funded rate in November was 7.45 percent, 25bps higher than October and 85bps higher than the same month last year. (Curinos sources a statistically significant
When you own your own home, you don’t have to deal with unreasonable landlords. (Warning: uncensored.) And then there are those who own their own homes that have no mortgage: almost 40 percent of Americans own their places outright, an all-time high. Do you think that you could live in 200 square feet? There are tiny homes, and then there is this place that kind of folds up! (Thank you to Arch’s Sharon K. for sending this along.) Meanwhile, among lenders there are many reports of, what is in effect, pick-a-pay, when the “referral” source is moved within the company. LO comp is still an issue, as brokers can have different comp plans but LOs can’t. Pre-approvals and pre-quals off the chart, but there is no inventory. Multiple bids are occurring in many areas and price points. In the wholesale channel, smaller companies can’t out-price the “big guys,” so instead are focusing on service and products. And here come the holidays! (Toda
The upcoming credit price changes were not discussed yesterday at the counter in Paul’s Pancake Parlor here in Missoula, but they might have been. As well as the resignation of NAR’s CEO… are there cracks in the powerful NAR empire? One thing that did come up was the commercial real estate market, reminding us that people need a place to live, not necessarily a place to work. Want to know how bad the commercial real estate market may become? Follow the money. “Blackstone Real Estate Income Trust’s investors sought to pull $2.2 billion last month, compared with $2.1 billion in September… BREIT returned about $1.3 billion to investors, or about 56 percent of what was requested, the ‘highest payout percentage’ since redemptions were restricted last year… The real estate trust is a colossus in U.S. property markets, with its reach spanning from apartments to data centers. In late 2022, BREIT curbed withdrawals after redemption