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Our Federal Reserve doesn’t control events around the world, like a ship being stuck in the Suez Canal, or the current Red Sea geopolitical aggression, which can impact our inflation rate or how much money companies or individuals earn. The world changes. What was it like going to a concert 60 years ago? This will give you an idea. Concerts have become huge moneymakers. Along those lines, but in a different industry, the Financial Times reports that JPMorgan took almost a fifth of total US bank profits in the first nine months of 2023! Too big to fail? For those playing along at home, the ten largest banks, when that concert was filmed, were Bank of America, Chase Manhattan Bank, First National City Bank of New York, Chemical Bank New York Trust Company, Morgan Guaranty Trust Company, Manufacturer’s Hanover Trust Company, Bank of California, Security First National Bank, Banker’s Trust Company, and First National Bank of Chicago. Now the list is JPMorgan Chase, Ban ....
I am in Reno today, Spokane tomorrow, but I spent much of last week in Chicago which is very much a melting pot of languages. One can walk down the street and hear similar words for the same thing: Hypothèque (French), hipoteca (Spanish), hipotēka (Latvian), hypotheek (Dutch), and hypothek (German). You’ll have to figure out the word on your own. Renovation there is indicative of what is happening in many other cities: Developers and city agencies in Chicago are working together on the LaSalle Street initiative, which seeks to bring 1,000 homes (including 300 affordable ones) to a mostly shuttered stretch of the city’s financial district. With plenty of people still content to work from home, living in a converted empty office may be the answer to the housing crisis in many areas. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s is sponsored by the STRATMOR Group, the data-driven mortgage advisory. At STRATMOR, insights and knowledge are app ....
A friend out in California asked me how much, on average, I spend on a bottle of wine. I replied, “About half an hour.” Plenty of wine is being consumed while watching Yellowstone and 1923, and while all the women are ogling Spencer Dutton in 1923, in some non-mortgage news to save the economy the Secretary of Homeland Security will announce next month that the Immigration and Customs Enforcement will start deporting seniors (instead of illegals) to lower Social Security and Medicare costs. A major study concluded that older people are easier to catch, offer less resistance, and, more importantly, will not remember how to get back home. In actual news, lenders who own servicing continue to peel it off because it either doesn’t fit their portfolio, or they need the cash. The owners of lenders continue to examine various business strategies as we start 2023, with some thinking that it doesn’t make sense to remain the size they are. There was a lot of mergers a ....
Now we have a butter shortage raising prices ahead of the holidays. Great. While margarine makers are licking their chops over the news, vegans and other readers should know that no animals are ever harmed in the making of this commentary! But speaking of harm, in the current environment, and probably for the next couple quarters, vendors and lenders working 30 percent harder to make 40 percent less. Or worse. If the Fed’s actions can push asset prices higher, it’s actions can also push asset prices lower, right? Indeed, many will argue that is what we’re seeing now, and despite the Fed making its future actions clear, I am reminded of the old saying, “Don’t fight the Fed.” So be cautious when seeing any rate move down. (More below in the capital markets section.) Many in our industry are using this lull in business activity to attend conferences (last week’s Mortgage Collaborative conference had over 400 registered; this week’s M ....
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