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The New Crossover Members of the House

Republicans win majority by cutting deeper into hostile turf; number of split districts remains low historically.KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE Republicans won a slim House majority at least in part by winning more victories in districts that Joe Biden carried than Democrats did in districts carried by Donald Trump. There are currently slated to be 18 Republicans in Biden seats and just 5 Democrats in Trump seats. Democrats used to win more crossover districts, but Republicans have now won more in 6 of the last 7 elections as the overall number of crossover districts has generally declined. It is common for the opposition party in Congress to add to their roster of crossover districts in a midterm, and that’s exactly what happened in 2022, despite Republicans having a disappointing election overall.
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Trump-District House Democrats Could Become Extinct This November

How redistricting has altered the number of “crossover” districts.KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE The number of “crossover” districts those won by different parties for president and House has generally been declining over time. Under the current congressional district lines, there were only 16 crossover districts in 2020, with Republicans winning 9 Biden-won seats and Democrats winning 7 Trump-won seats. Based on the new district lines, and with a few states still outstanding, there are currently 16 incumbents running in districts that their party did not win for president: 11 Republicans in Biden seats and 5 Democrats in Trump seats. The Democrats may not hold a single Trump district next year, and the Republicans very well could hold many more Biden-won seats.
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Wave of House Democratic retirements stokes fears for party's election prospects | Democrats

Thirty-one Democrats, a modern record, are stepping down as the party risks bleak midterms. But leaders say hope remains ....

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EIL Presents a Talk with Kyle Kondik

The Electoral Innovation Lab presents a Reformer Forum with Kyle Kondik, Managing Editor at Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, in a talk titled “The Long Red Thread: How Democratic Dominance Gave Way to Republican Advantage in US House Elections.”
Kondik is a frequently-cited expert on American politics who has appeared on CNN, Fox News, MSNBC, PBS NewsHour and Comedy Central’s The Daily Show. His book on Ohio’s presidential voting history, The Bellwether, was released in June 2016. He also serves as the Center’s communications director and is based in Washington, where he manages the Center’s DC office.
To attend this public Reformer Forum, click here. ....

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