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By Lars P. SyllBehavioural experiments and laboratory research face the same basic problem as theoretical models - they are built on often rather artificial conditions and have difficulties with the ‘trade-off’ between internal and external validity. The more artificial conditions, the more internal validity, but also less external validity. The more we rig experiments to avoid the ‘confounding factors’, the less the conditions are reminiscent of the real ‘target system.’ ....
By Lars P. SyllServaas Storm’s has a recent article that is a marvellous final take down of the ridiculous aspirations of New-Classical-New-Keynesian macroeconomic modelling. DSGE models are worse than useless - and still, mainstream economists seem to be überimpressed by the ‘rigour’ brought to macroeconomics by New-Classical-New-Keynesian DSGE models, its rational expectations, and microfoundations! ....
By Lars P. SyllCausality in social sciences - and economics - can never solely be a question of statistical inference. Causality entails more than predictability, and requires theory to really explain social phenomena in depth. Analysis of variation - the foundation of all econometrics - can never in itself reveal how these variations are brought about. ....
By Lars P. SyllOne of the limitations with economics is the restricted possibility to perform experiments, forcing it to mainly rely on observational studies for knowledge of real-world economies. ....
By Lars P. SyllCauses deduced in an experimental setting still have to show that they come with an export-warrant to the target population/system. The causal background assumptions made have to be justified, and without licenses to export, the value of ‘rigorous’ and ‘precise’ methods - and ‘on-average-knowledge’ - is despairingly small. ....