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Examine India’s bond market to read its economic tea leaves Stock buoyancy doesn’t reflect the real state of India’s economy (Photo: Mint)Premium Andy Mukherjee Share Via Read Full Story Consumers are feeling cheated at the gas station. Investors are returning empty-handed from government bond auctions. The Indian state is struggling to make its fiscal math work without short-changing the first group or disappointing the second. Each of these discontents could curtail a still-unfinished recovery from the massive covid disruption. But you wouldn’t see any of those concerns reflected in the stock market, which is floating on $85 billion of liquidity pumped into the banking system in less than two years. At the height of the optimism around the 2014 election that brought Narendra Modi to power, the Nifty 50 index peaked at a price-to-earnings ratio of 23. The multiple is currently at 36 and rising. ....
Beyond the Bezos vs Ambani battle for India’s retail market Premium Andy Mukherjee Share Via Read Full Story A bruising battle for supremacy between two of the world’s richest men is hogging the limelight, but the silent changes in India’s retail landscape deserve equal attention. The ongoing digital transformation of kirana stores, tens of millions of shops catering to 1.3 billion consumers, will matter for everyone from Unilever and Procter & Gamble to State Bank of India. It will also be important to Amazon boss Jeff Bezos and Reliance Industries Chairman Mukesh Ambani. The two billionaires are circling each other over an Indian retailer in crisis. The founder of Future Group took Bezos’s money, but sold his debt-laden business to Ambani when the pandemic pressure became too much. Amazon is in India’s courts to scuttle the $3.4 billion sale, which could end up making Reliance’s dominance over the consumer economy unshakeable. ....