Good morning. Im mark moore, director for the center of military and diplomatic history here csis. We are delighted to host sir Lawrence Freedman this morning. I see some familiar faces as host of new ones which is great. As most of you in this got i think understand well, the idea of forcing the future in principle holds great appeal, so much of what we do in washington in terms of allocating resources, developing capabilities and dividing strategies is based upon our expectations of the military environment of the future. The trouble of course is that prediction is difficult. Some would even say impossible. Of course in reading this trip the book i was reminded of a saint by a chinese philosopher that those of knowledge did not predict, and those who predict did not have knowledge. Philip tadlock, the author of the bestselling book super forecasting contested active prediction is not impossible, at least in the shortterm, but he also emphasized that humans are extremely gullible when
Semester, these three duke with some great stuff planned for next semester already. Also to nights for him being filled by cspan, so during the question part of the forum, if you would go up to one of the microphones and also hopefully state your name and your question, another reason why we ask you to stitching is because we didnt do a write up of all of the forums afterwards which you will be able to read a couple of days after the event on our website which is comp forum. Edu, and the last announcement is that this event tonight is cosponsored by radius, which is another group at mit. I am thrilled to be able to introduce these three. It is a different story than we initially thought would be here because jeff, he called me up a little past by because his daughter was puking, and as a aa father of two young kids myself i said please stay home. And so fortunately christina couch who writes a lot about technology and works with the forum is a bright journalist in her own right has agr
Has enabled us to invite so many prominent authors. [applause] i i would also like to recognize and thank New York Historical trustee, chairman emeritus roger herzog, who is responsible for the 2011 renovation of New York Historical Society Building as well as this magnificent robert a Smith Auditorium during his tenure as chairman. Lets give him a big hand, thank you. [applause] i also want to recognize and thank Trustees Barry barnett, joe pickett, ira and all the wonderful chapmans councilmembers with us with a great work and support as well. A few. [applause] so the program tonight will last an hour, include a questionandanswer session, and the q and who will be conducted via written questions on cards. You should receive a card and a pencil. If you havent, the staff are circulating right net and more out and they will be collected later on in the program. There will be a formal book signing in our ny history store on the 77th street side of our building, and copies of the books wi
Sake dont move to oregon. Forgot was settled by walkers, it turns out the earliest known evidence of humans anywhere in the americas north and south is in oregon indicated Eastern Oregon and the dna that was taken from the university of oregon, the paleontologists have done this shows that various ancestors came from siberia so this is the first proof of the alaska land ridge theory that shows the people actually want to come to oregon, the descendents of those people are still here at the oregon tries but i think theres also this transition of wanting because the white settlers came on the oregon trail, they did writing those wagons, they were full of gear, they walked over here in today, when spring comes in the day like this, you want to get outside, cabin fever just rages because it rains in the winter here and you get a nice day in april like this and people are lacing up their hiking boots and hitting the trails and maybe theres that echo of the oregon trail and the first native
Sake dont move to oregon. Forgot was settled by walkers, it turns out the earliest known evidence of humans anywhere in the americas north and south is in oregon indicated Eastern Oregon and the dna that was taken from the university of oregon, the paleontologists have done this shows that various ancestors came from siberia so this is the first proof of the alaska land ridge theory that shows the people actually want to come to oregon, the descendents of those people are still here at the oregon tries but i think theres also this transition of wanting because the white settlers came on the oregon trail, they did writing those wagons, they were full of gear, they walked over here in today, when spring comes in the day like this, you want to get outside, cabin fever just rages because it rains in the winter here and you get a nice day in april like this and people are lacing up their hiking boots and hitting the trails and maybe theres that echo of the oregon trail and the first native