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BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Markets Americas July 12, 2024

Buying longer on that curve . If so, that will keep rates lower. The path we are leading down is not a good one. What the fed is trying to do is what every central bank is trying to do, which is engineer growth. Tyler george bory is with us now. Talk to me about what you have been noticing, your take on the big reflationary trade yesterday but then a little bit of a comedown in yields again today. George thank you for having me on, always great to be on the show. Powelll question is, is seismic shift, or more of the same . The reality is there are some significant factors here. The biggest is the acknowledgment that there has been a Material Change in the economy. Unemployment can go lower than policy makers expect without causing inflation. They have issue is, also kind of acknowledged there is a limitation of Monetary Policy. Those two factors we view as material. Shift,t ....

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BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Surveillance July 12, 2024

[no audio] tom good morning, everyone. Bloomberg surveillance. We welcome all of you worldwide, on Bloomberg Radio and Bloomberg Television. Some technical difficulties there, which usually start with tom keene because i am the one most remote today. I am still at my home here near the mount sinai complex. It has been a most extraordinary morning. Let me give you a sense of the new slow right now before we get to our good conversation this morning. Is certainly decidedly new and more grim news on the pandemic. This has been the seachange news this morning. We have seen it over the last couple of days as well. And in the markets, as Jonathan Ferro has mentioned, a real deterioration over the last number of hours. All of this the reality. I think i could simplistically just say because we have wiped away any sense o ....

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BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Real Yield July 13, 2024

Corporate bonds on track for the best returns in a decade, but how long can the rally continue . We begin with the big issue, markets betting low rates are here to stay in 2020. It is hard to really see the yield breakout from here. Bond yields moving sideways. Trapped in this range. We cant generate any efficient right now. That should eventually be a good year for bonds. Still attractive, but certainly not breaking out. 1. 20 by the end of the year. To get to 1. 2 on the 10 year, we are looking at a global recession. We are going to test 1 . A lot of things would have to go incredibly wrong to get to 1 . And if im wrong, i think were going lower. In the u. S. Economy could potentially go into recession. Unless the market begins to price in additional cuts, the 10 year at most, will drop down to the 1. 60 range. The fed will probably not cut again. If there is any weakness in the data, you will see an outsized rally in bonds. The path to least resistance has been for decades, lower, a ....

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BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Surveillance July 13, 2024

European stocks are down a little bit, a lot of focuses on trade. A lot of focus on what happens next. We heard from donald trump saying hes not ready to roll back tariffs, some and we heard from his advisors last week. The focus is on alibaba as a litmus test of the strength of the chinese economy for a single day and the numbers are staggering. China approving new loans coming it 661 billion yuan. Pound at 1. 2805. We will be speaking to u. K. Chancellor, that interview was later today. Lets getntime straight to bloomberg first word news here in london. Spain has left more ungovernable than ever. Their leader now has fewer lawmakers than before, he now faces torturous negotiations to form a government. Australia is bracing for another week of devastating bushfires, flames in the eastern seaboard and even areas of great sydney are facing catastrophic threat. More people have died and than 150 homes destroyed as fires rip through areas hit by a two year drought. Chinas consumer inflati ....

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BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Real Yield July 13, 2024

Progress and roll it back. For late february, trump did not meet with chinese officials and there were press conferences afterwards, and they agreed to have the chinese by a little bit more soybeans. Two days later, trump declared a truce. That never really led to anything. We have been wrong optimistically the entire time. They have had a couple of years to try to come to compromise. We are right where we started 18 months ago or so. Applause is good, but until i see a rollback of some of the tariffs that went on recently, i have to go with our leading indicators, which are still pointed downwards. Jonathan doing the around the joining me around the table in new york are our guests. The first question to you, george. Same issues, same people, same countries. Do we get a different outcome . George in terms of trade, i dont think so. In a perpetual state of negotiations and we expect that to continue. We are not expecting a major breakthrough anytime soon. In the financial markets, thin ....

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