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CNNW Smerconish July 5, 2024

is it over before it begins? i m michael smerconish in philadelphia. before a single primary vote has been cast, has donald trump already sown up the 2024 gop nomination, or is it still up for grabs? everybody has an opinion, but the data tells a pretty compelling story. peggy noonan in the wall street journal writing this week, i refuse to see the story is over. the voting begins now. after chris christie dropped out, the new york times wrote, the christie vote alone will probably not be enough, but haley has been steadily gaining in the polls and historically there s a lot of precedent for surging candidates to keep gaining, especially over a contest s final days. and new hampshire, which is second up, will be a wild card. independents can vote in the gop primary, and according to data released yesterday from gallup, 43% of americans consider themselves to be independent. the rs and ds are tied at 27. it ties a record for an independent showing, making them the la ....

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FOXNEWSW The Daily Briefing With Dana Perino June 6, 2018

Pardons. Is that right, john . Traditionally, dana the end of the year and hands out pardons. This president president likes to d them seems that way. He pardoned jacks johnson, the conservative film maker denish dsouza. Just to make the differenceation here, commuting a johnson does not pardon someone. It lets them out of jail. Youll remember from the bush administration, president bush commuted the sentence of Scooter Libby but did notardon he him. On alice hnson, Kim Kardshian came to the white house on may 30th to meet with President Trump on it. He she was talking about Prison Reform with ied kushner and requested that alice johnsonsennce be commuted urntly in alaba and t offender convicted of drug conspiracy and money laundering, part of a cocaine trafficking op ....

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Polling site 538 gives Biden narrow edge over Trump

Biden wins about 53% of the time in the site's predictive computer generated analyses compared to 47% for Trump. ....

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CNN Smerconish June 4, 2024 14:03:00

With 61%. desantis and haley essentially tied for second at 12% and 11%, writing for the website g. elliot morris, my next guest, compared this with the polls in every presidential election dating back to 1980. morris assembled a massive master list of where non-incumbent candidate stood in mid-december before the election year and how they ultimately fared. at that point, every non-incumbent with 40% in polls has gone on to win the party s nomination. trump is at 61%. if you look at trump s advantage at this stage compared to the other non-incumbents seeking the nomination, his polling is within his party higher than any of them. g.w. bush, hillary clinton, ....

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CNN Smerconish June 4, 2024 14:04:00

Analysis, as of mid-december, this gave trump a more than nine in ten chance of being the nominee. what are the historical chances for somebody in desantis or haley s current position to catch him? since 1980, there have been three non-incumbent candidates that were polling below 15% in december and did go on to win their party s nomination. michael dukakis, john mccain, and bill clinton. but those races were wide open. in those december polls, no other candidate was above 25%, where trump s current support is more than double that, which means there are fewer undecided voters to sway, and even if a challenger does surprisingly well in iowa, there s a historical limit to how big of a bump they receive. i want to know what you think. go to my website at smerconish.com and answer today s poll question, is the republican mnomination already over? joining me is g. elliot morris, ....

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