with 61%. desantis and haley essentially tied for second at 12% and 11%, writing for the website g. elliot morris, my next guest, compared this with the polls in every presidential election dating back to 1980. morris assembled a massive master list of where non-incumbent candidate stood in mid-december before the election year and how they ultimately fared. at that point, every non-incumbent with 40% in polls has gone on to win the party's nomination. trump is at 61%. if you look at trump's advantage at this stage compared to the other non-incumbents seeking the nomination, his polling is within his party higher than any of them. g.w. bush, hillary clinton,