Projection that we present today is very much into parts. Im going to begin with the first part. Starting near term outlook. This chart shows the evolution of Consumer Price inflation and its components since 2018. It shows that inflation has come off the peak in october last year and that it continues to fall over the rest of this year in our near term projection. Thats the piece showed in the shade of part of the chart. This fall can be attributed in large part to a full on contribution from energy. Fuel prices have declined, electricity and gas prices have stabilised, albeit at a higher level. The Dark Orange Bars on this chart show how the contribution from Energy Prices falling and turning negatively in the coming months. Giving off gems price cap on energy and gas bills, we expect inflation to take a further step down in the july dates will be published in two weeks time. That will come down to around 7 at that point. Following a larger step down in 0ctober s data to around about
has been very high. but it does appear to have peaked and as you can see on this chart, there are signs on the monthly figures that it is starting to ease. evidence collected by the bank s regional agents suggest that a moderation in food import prices being passed through the supply chain to consumer prices. so we do expect food price inflation to come down gradually over the rest of this year. the contribution from food price inflation falls accordingly in our near term projection. from about two percentage points to one .25 percentage points to one .25 percentage points to one .25 percentage points towards the end of the year. call goods price inflation, it is taking time for the four energy prices to work through the price chain and the price of imported goods are continuing to rise, despite the fall in export prices. that s why in our central projection we expect call goods price inflation to come down
we ve got next. the drivers for the big pull this month, chief of petrol and diesel prices injune and anotherfact that was and diesel prices injune and another fact that was mentioned was the falling fool food prices, but it still in double figures, decade highs. definitely a ways to go on food prices. looking ahead there are some positive things to point to, the pound has been strong in recent months, that s likely to lead to cheaper food months, that s likely to lead to cheaperfood import months, that s likely to lead to cheaper food import prices, months, that s likely to lead to cheaperfood import prices, secondly we have seen that petrol prices have gone down, we are also expecting there to be lower energy prices for electricity, gas for this month. and a lot of, may be haven t really picked up but actually a pretty big news story. the prices that businesses pay for their raw materials are actually now back in negatively negative territory.