Projection that we present today is very much into parts. Im going to begin with the first part. Starting near term outlook. This chart shows the evolution of Consumer Price inflation and its components since 2018. It shows that inflation has come off the peak in october last year and that it continues to fall over the rest of this year in our near term projection. Thats the piece showed in the shade of part of the chart. This fall can be attributed in large part to a full on contribution from energy. Fuel prices have declined, electricity and gas prices have stabilised, albeit at a higher level. The Dark Orange Bars on this chart show how the contribution from Energy Prices falling and turning negatively in the coming months. Giving off gems price cap on energy and gas bills, we expect inflation to take a further step down in the july dates will be published in two weeks time. That will come down to around 7 at that point. Following a larger step down in 0ctober s data to around about
And in the euro area, where wholesale Energy Prices feed through more directly to Consumer Prices. Where there is more uncertainty is around the time it will take the other non Energy Components of the Consumer Price of Consumer Price inflation to come down as well. Price inflation for food and Non Alcoholic beverages has been very high, but it does appear to have peaked. And as you can see in this chart, there are signs in the monthly figures that it has started to ease. And evidence collected by the banks Regional Agents suggests that a moderation in food inport prices is being passed through the supply chain to Consumer Prices. So we do expect that food Price Inflation will come down gradually over the rest of this year. The Shadow Chancellor has said the Interest Rate rise weve seen today is another hammer blow to families who are seeing their mortgages increase. Rachel reeves said that the government needs to force the banks and lenders to do more to Mortgage Holders help includin
Wales and South West England probably seen fewer showers this afternoon and probably more sunshine. A few light showers coming and going in Northern Ireland and frequent showers in northern scotland today. A cool day, temperatures below par for the time of year. Showers keep going tonight across North East Scotland and england with temperatures between 11 and 14. Tomorrow we do it all again. Another showery day. Most starting on a dry note with sunshine and showers getting going in the afternoon. They will favour Eastern England because here we have a Convergence Zone with wind being bashed together and the showers are most likely to form. Away from that you have a decent chance of dryness tomorrow afternoon with sunshine coming through. Temperatures between the high teens and low 20s. However, we have more rain in the forecast and those totals are mounting up, particularly as we get into saturday. We are only three days into the new month and parts of Southern England have already had
have voted to maintain bank rates at 5.25%. monetary policy remains restrictive. let me be clear, there is absolutely no room for complacency. inflation is still too high. we will keep interest rates high. we will keep interest rates high enough for long enough to make sure we get inflation all the way back to the 2% target. we will be watching closely to see if further increases are needed but even if they are not it is much too early to think about rate cuts. i m going to talk about inflation over the coming months and that i will turn to the outlook for the economy further ahead. and means for monetary policy. to start with the near term outlook for inflation. chart one from the report shows consumer price inflation and its components since 2019. it shows how inflation has continued to fall since the previous report in august. watch as we expected. inflation took a step down in the data forjuly published two weeks after the august report. as you can see in our near term pe
projection that we present today is very much into parts. i m going to begin with the first part. starting near term outlook. this chart shows the evolution of consumer price inflation and its components since 2018. it shows that inflation has come off the peak in october last year and that it continues to fall over the rest of this year in our near term projection. that s the piece showed in the shade of part of the chart. this fall can be attributed in large part to a full on contribution from energy. fuel prices have declined, electricity and gas prices have stabilised, albeit at a higher level. the dark orange bars on this chart show how the contribution from energy prices falling and turning