Negative rates help the economy. Trade, brexit and growth put pressure on e. U. Alliances but europes top officials remained resolute. We will be the exporter of knowledge, technologies. Every company should contribute where they do extra in business. Europe and the eurozone in particular have to go a little further. From iran to saudi arabia to south africa leaders spoke to bloomberg about their challenges. Weve already committed to reducing expenditure on a number of fronts. We want to avoid a dangerous escalation. We are flipping the page. All straight ahead on this special edition of bloomberg best. Hello and welcome. Im nejra cehic. On this special edition of bloomberg best, well look back at 2019 in europe, in the middle east, and africa revisiting the most interesting interviews with newsmakers, policy makers and leading figures in business, finance, and politics. Lets begin with brexit. When 2019 began theresa may was facing a march deadline to achieve a deal. By years end, a n
Can died here and we stocks. Famas relationship now extends five decades and led the beginning of difficult men shonal and Institutional Fund manager. They are coming out with a landmark paper and brand new stuff. The two recently sat down at the university of Chicago School of business. Widearranging conversations on a very special masters in business. During your last year at tufts you worked nor a professor who ran a stock market Forecasting Service and you did research for him, what sort of work did you do with this dock Forecasting Research . To beat the market. How did that work out . That worked out fine. [indiscernible]. That was a lesson how did that research into forecasting the stock Market Impact your thinking about whether or not the market could be beat . , i came here to Chicago Research indiscernible] put in context, it started because of computers. Before 1960s, we didnt have a computer to do data analysis. And statisticians had a new toy to play with and stock prices
Others. An extraordinary year to look forward to. Thank you so much for being with us. Much to talk about in the next halfhour. I want to talk about your new effort, thinking about immigration and what it means. We must talk about the central bank. Weve got to talk about the markets. You have been the gloom cruise great pinata. Good times, bad times. We cannot possibly go up. Confounded off the gloom of last december, but confounded over one year, five years, 10 years to good and substantial equity returns. When does it end . Abby tom, thank you first of all for having me here for this discussion. Gloom at yearend 2019 in many ways set us up for a good start to 2019 in the markets. One of the things i am concerned about is just how happy everybody is as yearend 2019. I think what is priced into the market right now is an economic scenario that seems to be the most likely. No recession. The economy perking up a little bit. Corporate profits in single digits, maybe higher growth. It is p
Keep going up for sure. If it keeps pushing higher, then youll start to get a capitulation which will bring us another leg higher in yields. We have seen some capitulation. You will continue to see pressure on yields. Lower bond yields from here probably the market would not like. If this push higher in yields reverses, it reflects significant deterioration in macro. The market has come around to the view that maybe we are not going into a recession, but a Slower Growth environment. We have quite a substantial amount of Institutional Investors that perhaps have overweighted duration. You want to buy duration here because we have not yet seen a sustained pickup in momentum in u. S. Data. Jonathan joining me are robert tipp of pgim fixed income samantha azzarello, and krishna money Krishna Memani of invesco. Sam, is there any more oxygen left in the treasury selloff we have seen this week . Samantha i think so. The trend could continue next week. Rates could continue to go up. We have se
Markets and how they work based on how we study them here. Look, we think we can go out, trading stocks, and not get killed. Their relationship now extends five decades and led to the beginning of dimensional, a nearly 600 billion Institutional Fund manager. David every new paper coming out was a landmark paper. It was all brandnew stuff. And none of it was being applied. Narrator the two recently sat down at the university of Chicago Booth School of business, named after david a widespreading renovation in 2008 for a wideranging conversation with very on a very special masters in business. Barry during your last year at tufts, you worked for harry ernst, who had a side gig running a stock market forecasting service. And you did research for him. What sort of work did you do with this stock Forecasting Research . Eugene i was evaluating schemes to beat the market. [laughter] barry and how did that work out . Eugene it worked out fine. [laughter] eugene on the data that i fit it to. It