Not all, but many, capital markets folks spent their college years rolling up their sleeves. Some not so much. When originators are asked about interest rates, some LOs may use the line in the clip above: “Oh, man. I only ride them; I don't know what makes them work.” (The current STRATMOR blog is titled, “Relying on the Fed: How Did This Happen?”) Yesterday the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) grabbed the headlines, despite doing exactly what everybody expected them to do: leave rates unchanged. Inflation is still higher than the FOMC would like. Certainly, insurance costs, whether they be homeowner or car, are inflationary. It would be foolish to blame the Biden Administration, or any administration, for things like insurance costs, ships running aground in the Suez Canal, a drought in Africa, or what OPEC does. Such is life, and one needs to ask how much more government interference we need or want. In my opinion, a president consultin
“Why did New Jersey get all the toxic waste and California get all the lawyers? New Jersey got to pick first.” (Hey, I don’t write ‘em.) Quips aside, California accounts for 20 or 25 percent of the nation’s residential lending, depending on who you ask. The Golden State’s economy has been growing steadily while the global economy has at times faltered, and as a result it’s poised to surpass Germany to become the fourth-largest economy on the planet! It jumped seventh-place Brazil and sixth-place France in 2015, and in 2017 it passed the United Kingdom, and has been in fifth place since. The current figures won’t be published until next year, but both Germany and California have a GDP of $3.5 trillion, and one forecast puts California up $72 billion over Germany. And, of course, right in the thick of advocacy and education is the California MBA. If you have questions about the issues that lenders are grappling with out West, contac
While we had news today of the British Prime Minister resigning, yesterday my doctor asked if anyone in my family suffers from mental illness. I replied, "No, we all seem to enjoy it." Suffering from a lack of liquidity is the death knell for lenders and certainly nothing to joke about. Want to know the quickest way to shut your business down? Don’t return your warehouse bank’s phone call. In the secondary markets, if no one is interested in buying the products we’re manufacturing, that isn’t good news. So headlines of stories in the Wall Street Journal like, “Recession Fears Hit Risky Mortgage Debt Amid Default Concerns” are a real problem. (Subscription needed.) Housing and lending, “upstream” and “downstream,” is our focus, and economist Elliot Eisenberg summed things up. “With 30-year mortgage rates steadily climbing and now at 7 percent, it is unsurprising the NAHB Housing Market Index f
Why aren’t there 103’s on rate sheets? With 30-year mortgage rates firmly in the 7 percent range, the market has moved too fast for any kind of substantive premiums for lenders or MLOs to offer borrowers. Put another way, there aren’t any securities trading at prices like 101 or 103 that offer above par pricing that can be passed along. And with volumes continuing to decline, it will take a while for the secondary markets to catch up with the primary markets. As one fellow capital markets vet wrote to me, “I don’t even see premium pricing in the capital markets. There have been days where at best I saw par pricing on 6.5s, maybe 50 bps above. Even high-quality borrowers with FICOs above 780 and reasonable ratios need to bring money to the table. On that note, anything to add would be a nod to LLPAs in general, and the LLPAs that were handed down by the FHFA over the last year for 2nd homes and investments… With high bond coupons trading right o
Lenders continue to adapt, and LOs are adding value by being subject matter experts and marketing accordingly. (For example, today’s podcast features an interview with Bob Griffith, General Manager of Home Services at Houwzer, on using a client’s 401k to help finance a house.) Marketing is a fickle mistress. Ever “opt out” of receiving ads? The people that advertisers most want to target are hiding from the advertisers (thank you to Carla M. for sending that in). The implications to marketing efforts for any lender or vendor are clear. The implications of falling volume, margins, and revenue are clear as well: they’re leaving plans for 2022 in a shambles for most lenders and vendors. Every lender and originator know that 2020 and 2021 were not forecast to be record-breaking origination years, but they were. And if 2022 weighs in at $2 trillion in residential fundings, it will be a top 10 year. But still, volumes being down 50 percent from a year ago c