Besides Janet Yellen’s In-N-Out foray, it is a rough environment out there: Hope you don’t want a Wells Fargo HELOC. Or just ask Citizens who is exiting the wholesale channel; More below on that. Many lenders are reporting unit volumes dropping by 50-70 percent, in part due to higher rates caused by inflation expectations. Buying stuff in the holidays will be more expensive this year, and here’s a personal tale of inflation. I happened to be near a See’s Candy store recently. Knowing that my daughter enjoys a treat from time to time, we went in and, without looking at the prices, bought a can of Toffee-ettes and a small box of mixed chocolates. It turns out that Sees’ prices are up to $32/pound for the mixed and the can of toffee was $29. The total was $48.00. I may-as-well have been buying Kobe beef. Holy smokes! (Today’s podcast can be found here, sponsored by LoanCare, the mortgage subservicer known for delivering superior customer experienc
This morning I head from Chicago to Orlando along with 74 million others (yearly). More fun with numbers: Although the MBA thinks we’ll fund about $1.7 trillion in 2023, weekly applications continue to reflect a declining market so let’s use $1.5 trillion to make the numbers easier. That averages out to $6 billion per business day of production. The Fed is looking to offload $13 billion in MBS from bank seizures. To keep things in perspective, that is only two days’ worth of production, certainly not enough to “swamp the boat.” Perspective is good, and here’s another example. Higher and volatile interest rates, uncertainty about property values, and stresses in some property markets have increased pressure on some loans and properties. Accordingly, MBA reported that commercial and multifamily mortgage delinquencies increased in the second quarter of 2023. Even with the uptick in delinquency rates, they remain at the lower end of historical rang
As rumors of correspondent, wholesale, and retail company cutbacks or closings continue to bounce around our biz, how about this non-mortgage tidbit. During his off hours in New York, Ira S. found yet another fun and fascinating website: a map of the U.S. that one can zoom in/out of, and it will list the resident looked up most on Wikipedia (they had to be born, lived in, or somehow connected to the city). Much less fun is the fact that Capital markets staffs have turned their attention, due to recent rate drops, to renegotiations in the primary markets with LOs and AEs. In the secondary markets, of course, Wall Street firms don’t renegotiate hedge positions. In other words, one can’t call up Morgan Stanley or BAML or Multi-Bank Securities and whine, “Uh, remember that MBS we sold you three weeks ago? Well, rates have moved, and we want a better price or else.” In fact, I’ve even heard nervousness from lenders about margin calls from broker-dealers, e
Numbers are interesting things. “1” is the number of dogs, that I know of, rescued by a drone dragging a sausage and leading the dog to safety out of a mud flat. “38.2” was the United States’ median age in 2018. (Yes, half above, half below… and it is up from 37.2 in 2010.) “$9 trillion” is the Federal Reserve’s bond portfolio which Federal Reserve officials are set to discuss reducing, and how fast they will shrink it when the time comes, which would serve as a tool for tightening monetary policy as the Fed tries to curb high inflation. “2022” is the year that Fannie Mae anticipates we will establish a new "normal" for the housing market. The top-level view is that inflation will remain elevated for the year, and home price appreciation will slow to the high single digits. Economic growth will also return to longer term trends. Expect GDP to fall to 3.1%, home price appreciation will grow