As the security threats multiply and international troops are forced out, the military rulers in the Sahel have equivocated about their commitments to restoring civilian rule
, The promise of electoral contests to restore constitutional and nominally civilian rule will be a key issue across much of West and West-Central Africa this year, and particularly in the continuing battle of wills between Sahelian military regimes and the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS).
The massive fraud in the local elections looks like a dress rehearsal for Frelimo fixing the result of the presidential contest in October, All eyes are on the October general election, which will produce no surprises. Having practised the fraud in the municipal polls of October 2023, the ruling Frente de Libertaçao de Moçambique (Frelimo) will win after rigging on an epic scale. The electoral roll with be filled with thousands of ghost voters, especially in non-Frelimo dominated regions, backed by censorship of the media, intimidation of opposition election workers and candidates, corrupt police and judges, and abuses of all civic and electoral rights by the security forces.
Another year of a weak currency and austerity, backed by the IMF, lies ahead as the crisis in Gaza poses deep challenges to Sisi and his circle, The inflationary surge that followed successive devaluations of the currency in 2022 will take time to ease, as further depreciation of the Egyptian pound is likely in 2024, while the IMF is likely to help with a significant increase in its loan from the US$3 billion agreed in 2022.
The President s political dominance after his first full year in office is near total, The speed at which William Ruto shoe-horned his allies into key positions in the political and economic system after his election as president less than 18 months ago still shocks some Kenyans. His style exudes energy and relentless determination but the message is business before governance.
Regional ties in flux amid questions over King Mohammed s continued reign, Dramatic events could unfold in Rabat, where King Mohammed VI s (M6) health and enthusiasm to rule are being discussed ever more widely – at least in private, given tight controls on reporting royal chat. The 60-year-old King s intentions are unclear, but even some staunch monarchists agree that Moroccan governance isn t helped by M6 s long periods of absence abroad.