Regional ties in flux amid questions over King Mohammed s continued reign, Dramatic events could unfold in Rabat, where King Mohammed VI s (M6) health and enthusiasm to rule are being discussed ever more widely – at least in private, given tight controls on reporting royal chat. The 60-year-old King s intentions are unclear, but even some staunch monarchists agree that Moroccan governance isn t helped by M6 s long periods of absence abroad.
Strategic competition with Rabat over ties with Israel and the disputed Western Sahara keeps the region on edge, In the opaque world of Maghreb politics, mooted changes in the senior leaderships of Algeria and Morocco can send shockwaves across the region. But there is no sign that the economically damaging rivalry between Algiers and Rabat is likely to abate; some fear it could still escalate to open hostilities. Fallout from the Israel-Gaza war has galvanised the Arab street across the region and has been weaponised in rivalry between Algiers and Rabat.
, The vulnerability of expensive armour and military aircraft to Turkey s Bayraktar drones and cheap anti-tank missiles in the Ukraine conflict is causing a drastic rethink in the Algerian military, which has spent billions – accruing massive debts – acquiring such items from Russia.
The military-backed clean-up and stronger export earnings are unlikely to help the economy. Reform is promised but structural change is unlikely, President Abdelmajid Tebboune s government breathed a typically Algerian sigh of relief as more stable oil prices and the higher gas prices have infused the cash-strapped treasury with funds. Algiers had been living off fast-dwindling foreign reserves, which stood at US$46.2 billion – not enough to cover a year of imports – at end-August, compared with around $200bn in 2014. It even drew down its extra allocation of $2.67bn from the International Monetary Fund s (IMF) issue of Special Drawing Rights last year.
Le pouvoir had a reckoning with Islamism long before the Arab Spring and still dominates despite Hirak’s efforts at revolution, Algeria s Deep State has never gone away. Popular unrest decided le pouvoir (the powers-that-be) in favour of overseeing President Abdelaziz Bouteflika s removal and throwing his kleptocratic clan to the wolves, but it has held on to the model of military/security-led rule. Bouteflika was, indisputably, a major historical figure – as both Ahmed Ben Bella and Houari Boumedienne s Foreign Minister from 1963 to 1979, and then as President for 20 years. But he died last month without the lavish honours that once would have been expected, reflecting the disgrace of his final years.