close to him, he moves away from them. >> who was that guy climbing trump tower yesterday and what did he want? this is "mtp dalya daily," and starts right now. good evening. i'm chuck todd in washington. welcome to "mtp daily." and welcome to another trump conspiracy theory firestorm. the hits just keep on coming, don't they? amid dire warnings from party leaders and donors to "tone it down," trump is turning it up. he's attacking the sitting president apparently as a terrorist. and despite multiple attempts to get him to back down, he's not backing down. >> he is the founder of isis. he's the founder of isis. okay? he's the founder. >> do you think it's appropriate to call the sitting president of the united states the founder of a terrorist organization that wants to kill americans? >> he was the founder of isis. absolutely. >> i know what you meant. you meant that he created the vacuum, he lost the peace. >> no, i meant he's the founder of isis. >> our government has unleashed isis. i call president obama and hillary clinton the founders of isis. they're the founders. >> these are the founders of isis. these are the founders of isis. >> all of that happening in just the last 20 hours. call it another conspiracy theory. but more than that, it's another example of how trump has built a campaign on degrading american institutions and eroding small d democratic norms. you just saw his attacks on the office of the presidency. here's what he says about our presidential election. >> it's a totally rigged system. the elections are rigged. it's a totally rigged system. >> i'm afraid the election's going to be rigged. i have to be honest. >> there's his take on the american press. >> the biggest rigger of the system is the media. the media is rigged. it's rigged. it's crooked as hell. >> that led to "lock them up" cheers. very democratic. there's seemingly no u.s. institution big or small that is off limits for trump. want proof? here's a clip of trump publicly attacking a local fire marshal in columbus, ohio. >> we've had thousands of people outside, thousands. they were turned away by -- for political reasons. purely for political reasons. they've all been turned away. you saw them. it's a disgrace. the fire marshal said he's not allowed to allow any more even though the building holds many thousands of people. i just want to tell you that. that's politics at its lowest. >> by the way, trump then went on stage and suggested the local mayor was conspiring with the fire marshal. those are just the tip of the iceberg. we'll get to more in a minute. but as party panic is starting to set in, a group of more than 70 republicans have signed an open letter to rnc chairman reince priebus warning that "trump risks turning this election into a democratic landslide and only the immediate shift of all available rnc resources to vulnerable senate and house races will prevent the gop from drowning with a trump-emblazoned anchor around its neck." some tough words there. i'm joined now by republican pollster kelly ann conway who's a senior adviser to trump. and his campaign chief paul man atorte. before that she ran a pro-cruz super pac. also with us after kelly anne is nbc news political analyst hugh hewitt host of the hugh hewitt radio show on salem radio networks. you just saw he thought he knew what donald trump meant and donald trump corrected him. kelly anne, let me start with you. what is this? founder of isis. what is this? why spread a blatant lie like this? >> i think what donald trump means to say is what a lot of americans believe, which is the birth and growth of isis happened on the watch of the last -- >> no, no, no, no. kelly anne, i'm going to stop you right there. hugh hewitt thought that's what donald trump meant and went there. >> he talked about a vacuum -- >> donald trump corrected him. donald trump said no, no, no, he is the founder of isis. so that -- your explanation, what he really means, that doesn't hold watt grer what we just heard from mr. trump. >> well, i'll try to continue the response, chuck. what i mean to say is that most americans believe that we're not safe. so what donald trump is tapping into here is very simple, that the policies of this administration of which hillary clinton was a big member for many years have left us less safe and vulnerable. let's talk about the way that barack obama has talked about isis. what has president obama said about isis? the jv team. just in her convention speech two short weeks ago hillary clinton referred to them as our determined enemies as if they're at way team at a lacrosse game. they're not our determined enemies. isis are evil savage murderers who kill kids waiting in line for canned iy in nice, who kill people just dancing at a nightclub in orlando. and we need a commander in chief who's going to k3ers strong leadership and call it what it is. >> donald trump did not say any of that. donald trump did not imply any of that -- >> that's the way america sees it. >> well, that is not -- again, i go back to what he said to hugh hewitt, which is hugh hewitt thought it is what you said. and there is a real debate to be had about a vacuum in iraq, about all of these things. but donald trump insisted that wasn't it, that he's calling him the founder of isis. and kellyanne, you go through, he's saying the election system is rigged, all the american press corps are a bunch of liars. the idea that the president is a founder of isis. you start repeating these things over and over and a chunk of people are going to believe it and it erodes democratic norms. >> is that what we're worried about now, chuck? we're not worried about full and fair complete coverage of this election? because i've been around a long time and i've never seen anything like it. sorry. but -- >> i've never seen a candidate do what he's doing right now. >> i've never seen such incomplete coverage. we act like we're going to walk into the ballot box in november and there's going to be a big sign that says donald trump and the choices are going to be yes or no. there's another person on the ballot, a few people. but another major party candidate on the ballot. her name's hillary clinton. i know she's boring and lies for a living, so nobody really wants to cover her. but it is time for the media to step up and give her the same coverage. why aren't we talking more about this mass murderer omar mateen's father sitting behind her and saying she'll be better on national security. if that were the charleston shooter's father at a donald trump rally, if the charleston shooter's father had a bumper sticker -- >> the clinton campaign renounced him being there. >> no, they said that they didn't know -- >> i'm saying -- my point is donald trump never apologizes for any of these exaggerations, lies, misleads, whatever you want to call them. again, this is not apples -- this is not apples to apples. >> that's his characterization -- why is it a lie? >> tell me how that's not a lie. >> a lie is blaming a videotape for four americans' death. a lie is hillary clinton saying there's no national security -- >> kellyanne -- >> i'm sorry. there's news today. >> let me ask you this. is the election rigged? do you believe the election's rigged? >> i think what donald trump is saying -- >> do you believe the election's rigged? >> i believe the system is rigged. i think the little people don't benefit from the system -- >> that is a different thing to say than to call into question the results of our democracy. >> there are no results yet. >> i understand that. but why would he go around and say that the election is rigged? >> i think a fair and free press that covers both candidates objectively and completely is -- >> we have. >> is part of -- >> explain to me how we haven't. >> part of having a fair system -- >> i appreciate -- and i think we have. i appreciate that you don't sit here and say oh, everybody in the press is dishonest, lies and all that -- >> i would never say that. >> i understand that. but your candidate does. >> he doesn't think everybody is. >> but your candidate does. your candidate says it. does he believe barack obama's the founder of isis? i'm assuming he really doesn't. but he said it. >> there are -- there are objective content analyses done on a daily basis now showing what got covered and what did not. and if we think in this country that it's not relevant that just yesterday and today there are reports in credible newspapers that high-ranking state department officials when hillary clinton got there three months on the job democratic operatives were asking for favors that involved foreign governments and country special ichts -- >> and we've covered this. we've covered this a lot. i had somebody on this show yesterday who said the clinton campaign -- a clinton supporter who said they should shut down the foundation. a lost us -- >> good idea. >> -- are spending plenty of time on this issue. >> good idea. >> the point is it is not about her. at the end of the day it's about is he being honest with the american people. >> i think it's about both of them. they're running against each other. i'm sorry. i think it has to be about both of them. this is a binary choice. you want her, who a majority of americans, well more than a majority think can't tell the truth, is honest and untrustworthy. this election will come down to distrust of her versus distaste of him and some of the things he said which you are raising today's comments as one of them. but distrust of her versus distaste of him, that's a legitimate argument -- >> let me ask you this, though. why when there's a legitimate debate to have about isis and how this administration is having it, why does he always take it to a step where it's indefensible even for people -- hugh hewitt, who may believe in the substance of what you're saying but you go so far you can't defend it anymore? why does he continue to do that and put people that want to support him in a place where they can't be supportive? >> you know, he's not a professional politician who's been at this for 30 years with all the polished language, all the handlers hillary has, who won't even respect the press enough to have a press conference with you. >> it's outrageous that she does not. absolutely. which we say over and over again. >> he actually faces the press and says things like this. >> i understand. >> but look, what i'm telling you is the conversation going around this country at kitchen tables and in workplaces and over cappuccino counters is about isis. it is not about who said what using what word about isis. it is why 81% of americans, chuck, feel less safe now than they did seven years ago. it's why suburban moms are -- like me have angst about random violence and maybe i'll be in the wrong coffee line, maybe my kid will get on the wrong school bus and be gone that day. because we have leaders, quote unquote, right now, who call them the jv team, contained, libya, russia -- in the case of her two short weeks ago, our determined enemies. she called pro life republicans terrorists -- >> you're proving my point here. i'm going to pause. you are proving my point. you are making -- fine, if donald trump had said all of that, we wouldn't be here talking about controversial statements and all this. but this is not what he chooses to do. >> i'm saying it. >> and the fact of the matter is when you want to be president of the united states words matter and if you start going around -- you may say what he meant to say. somebody else is going to hear something different. and we're on a whole other plane where none of us want to be. >> what did hillary clinton mean to say when she last year called pro-life republicans terrorists? zbliem not here to explain for her. i'm not here to explain for her. >> with what did she mean when she said fbi director jim comey said i told the truth when all the clips say she didn't? what does she mean when her lips are moving to the extent it ever gets any coverage? there's a reason that she has earned 64% of ire -- and i'm sorry, i'm not going to lay it at the feet of donald trump or any other one individual -- >> and one of the reasons kellyanne -- >> the degradation of our faith in institutions. that's not at the doorstep of any one individual. the media have low approval ratings. congress has low approval ratings. anybody involved in politics has low approval ratings. those all need to go up. i even saw the preekt, much held in much less high repute than it was once. >> i have to pause it here. but by the way, one of the reasons why the public is aware of hillary clinton's trustworthy issues has to do with press coverage. but i will leave it there. >> good. keep it going. >> kellyanne conway with the trump campaign. thank you very much. hugh hewitt, let me bring you in here. hugh, you thought he meant something, and he corrected you. i don't know where else to go with this. he is saying is that somehow barack obama is a founder of isis. and you thought he meant something else. you know, why say something like this? >> to draw attention to it. you know, i've been rereading the transcript today, chuck, because it exploded. and i'd asked him at the beginning of the interview about the nra comments and whether or not he intended to incite violence against the secretary of state and he said no, of course not. later in the program i brought up last night's comment about being a founder. i said, you mean, don't you, that there was a vacuum in syria and that created -- you didn't get the status of forces agreement, that's what you meant. he said no, i meant founder. dave weigel pointed out online that he later said to me, and i heard it but i didn't say it, "if i used your language, hugh, no one would pay attention to me." he didn't say the word incendiary but he said i'm using language to draw attention to this issue. the people who created isis -- you could say it's katoub in 1950. you could say it's zawahiri, zarqawi, al baghdadi. a lot of things. but it's not barack o'bam ap. he didn't say tin tensionally. i didn't know until you played the intro he'd done it three more times today. but he clearly has a media strategy today to underline that word -- >> but hugh, i've got to ask you this. words do matter here. >> sure. >> and at some point this is not going to help him. this is a week where the republican party, the dam is breaking here. we're seeing every day another crack, another republican bails on this ticket. and now we've got the letter to the rnc. it's a fairly lengthy list of folks, and it may get longer, begging them to shift money. him using this language isn't helping him calm republican skeptics down, is it? >> no. in fact, easterlier in the interview i had with him today i asked him about his list of 11 for the supreme court and he doubled down on that as well saying i will stick to that list and by the way, mitch mcconnell can filibuster my nominees if i veer off of that list. that's reassuring to republicans. that's how you end the never trump dead enders. i haven't seen the letter to the rnc yet. or you talk about chaguri, as you did yesterday, the scandal that is rocking the state department. hillary clinton doing deals with a nigerian lebanese billionaire who had to pay $3 billion to the nigerian government after gallivanting with a dictator to avoid going to jail and he's in touch with the state department three months after the skrept of state -- that's what you focus on. you don't say founder. for the life of me i don't understand. he's a great interview. he's the best interview going. but sometimes it's like -- and you've been there like i have. it's on the roller coaster. and i was a little dumfounded because i've been making the argument about isis being on the president's head for calling them jvs, for not paying attention to them, on the secretary of state's head for not honoring the red line, for not negotiating a status of forces agreement. but they're not the founders of isis. they're the enablers of isis. and words do make a difference. >> look, there are going to be some people listening to you and saying hey, don't forget the invasion of iraq if you're going to start throwing those things in there. there is a lot of ownership of this vacuum of isis here. and it is bipartisan ownership. but again, none of that. none of that coming out of donald trump's mouth. and i want to ask you this one other thing. when you start telling a group of voters the election's rigged, the president's a terrorist, the press, you know, lock them up is what the chant started, these are basic small d democratic institutions that over time, you know, that's not healthy when a major party nominee who wants to lead this country is saying those things. >> well, they're old-time conservative themes here, chuck. i've been complaining about manhattan beltway media elites ever since i was on the radio in 1989 because they do pay attention to some stories more than others. and in my conversation with mr. trump this morning he began the argument by saying they jumped on my statement on monday and no one is covering the story on tuesday about hillary clinton. but in a certain sense that's a boomerang argument because if you escalate everything to rigged as opposed to unfair, to founder as opposed to enabler, you're going to get a disproportionate amount of the negative coverage. and on the one hand i think it might be a strategy that is purely genius on his part to speak past you and me directly to people out there watching. but it's certainly out of the box. >> i agree with you that it's a strategy, and i think he's sitting there going this is what worked in the primaries and i'm tired of listening to paul manafort, kellyanne conway and jason miller. anyway. hugh hewitt, thank you, sir. >> thank you, chuck. >> coming up, i'm going to talk with senator joe lieberman, former senator from connecticut, in just a moment. stay tuned. 24 hours ago a man scaling trump tower in manhattan captured national attention and forced us to have to focus the camera on him. well, before police captured him at the 21st floor, on this very show yesterday we watched his suction cup ascent live. so who was this guy? police identify him as 19-year-old steve rogata. he's from the washington, d.c. suburb of great falls, virginia. a youtube video posted ahead of the climb gives some clues to his motive. he says he is an independent researcher. "looking for a private audience with donald trump to discuss" what he called a private matter. what the matter could be, that we still do not know. here's what we do know. he now faces charges for reckless endangerment and criminal trespassing. and he's now undergoing a psychological examination. more "mtp daily" right after this. both on the track and thousands of miles away. with the help of at&t, red bull racing can share critical information about every inch of the car from virtually anywhere. brakes are getting warm. confirmed, daniel you need to cool your brakes. understood, brake bias back 2 clicks. giving them the agility to have speed & precision. because no one knows & like at&t. let me bring in the panel. they were sitting here. get them to react to all that. "usa today's" susan page. "chicago tribune's" clarence page. they're both married, just not to each other. and the former chair of the florida republican party al cardenas. welcome to you all. al, let me get you on this. where are you on trump? i don't know this. and give me your reaction to the latest with trump. >> listen, i've been on trump saying -- listen, i'm a loyal republican, voted all my life for the republican nominee. i'm sitting on the fence. give me a reason to vote for you. >> has he done that? >> and every day the runway gets shorter and the distance gets wider between my comfort level of voting for him and what he's saying. i was here yesterday with this very building trying to figure out what he said about the nra comments. and today we're talking about isis. and it sounds like it's a missive a day to keep your voters away. i'm not sure that's a sound strategy. i for one believe the moment's coming close when the chairman of my party has to decide whether to divert -- >> so this letter that people are signing -- would you sign it or not yet? >> i didn't. if i was asked to sign it, i would have. >> you would have signed this letter. >> yes. and here's the why. >> go ahead. >> the why is because i was party chairman. i made the difficult choices of calling a candidate given the role to tem them i had to stop funding them because you know, they couldn't win. in this case i've seen every election since whenever. and when you're this close to november and you're that many points away your chances of prevailing are negligible, especially if you don't change your ways. i think we've reached a point for many reasons, where the brand is getting damaged and the moneys will not be well spent and it's better to divert our resources. >> clarence, going back to trump's strategy, and it clearly is a strategy, this is not a mistake. >> that's right. i'm trying to read his mind like everybody else from a distance here. but he's been talking all along about how i don't need outside money, i don't need all these fancy consultants, i follow my instincts, and i can get media coverage. which he can. kellyanne's complaints notwithstanding. i haven't heard anybody complain that donald trump's not getting enough coverage. but the fact is this is a very clumsy execution of the big lie theory. tell the biggest lie you can. people are so busy knocking it down that they can't do anything else. the fact is he's also taking attention away from hillary clinton's scandals. >> as george costanza said in "seinfeld," it's not a lie, jerry, if you believe it. that's one way to sell the big lie. susan. >> you know, we were talking during the break about the disputed 2000 election results in florida, the big battle there, disputes went all the way to the supreme court, a 5-4 decision. and when the supreme court bush v. gore, everybody accepted the results, even those who felt that it wasn't fair. if we have a disputed election this year, would they be accepted in that way? or would we have a constitutional crisis, which we didn't have in 2000? >> all right. i'm going to pause guys there. you guys are sticking around. speaking of 2000, nice segue. former senator joe lieberman recently just endorsed hillary clinton. lieberman of course is an independent, former democrat, and he has a long history with the clintons. during his 2004 bid with the white house lieberman billed himself as the centrist heir to the clinton legacy. but their history actually stretches all the way back to his first race for a connecticut state senate seat in 1970. that's where he befriended a yale law student by the name of bill clinton who ended up working on his campaign. he says, "i'm very devoted to him. we go back such a long way." well, former senator lieberman is an independent now from connecticut. the 2000 democratic vice presidential nominee, 2004 presidential candidate and the current co-chair of the no labels organization. senator lieberman, did i get the whole resume in there, sir? >> you did. and i love hearing those old stories. it's true. i was running a challenge primary for state senator in the democratic party in new haven in 1970, and bill clinton came in and volunteered on the campaign. >> how well did you know hillary clinton back then? >> i knew her a little bit. but i actually, when they were both in the white house at one point, i said to her, you know, it's interesting, your husband got involved in new haven politics, i didn't see him much around that. he should said that's because i was actually doing my work at law school. >> i.o. you just endorsed her. >> yes. >> and i have to say, some people were surprised that it took you so long to decide between her and donald trump. why is that? >> well, the truth is i wasn't really balancing -- i mean, i've been focused on no labels, which al cardenas on your panel is a leader of. we're working hard to try to build a bipartisan group within congress and hopefully in the next administration to work together to build a peace after the war that will be and is this campaign is over. so i thought i'd stay back for a while. but people started asking, well, where are you? are you ducking this? and i just decided i'm for hillary and i might as well make that clear. i know her. i respect her. and i think she has the capacity to be a great president. >> you know, i want to ask you about this issue of words and the degradation of just sort of -- look, i am used to hot political rhetoric. you're used to hot political rhetoric. but it does feel like we're pushing the boundaries. and when you push the boundaries to a point, well, then nobody will believe the government when they say this is -- this is your tax bill. nobody is going to believe the press when they say don't eat that meat, it's bad for you, there's disease in it. this stuff has consequences when you just make these broad brush ridiculous statements. >> well, that's true. words matter, as we've been saying. look, the reality is the developments over the last several years where washington has become more and more partisan, ideologically rigid, no willingness to compromise in the national interest to get something done, has had the effect of making people angry at washington and not trusting our government. and when in our democracy you get to that point the system is really in some danger. this campaign has not helped that. it's made it even worse. and i particularly want to focus in on the idea that at this point in august people are saying the election is rigged. the election is -- you can't say that after the election november 8th, one side says something went wrong -- i can tell you from 2000, send in the lawyers, go to court. incidentally, i want to put an explanation point after what susan was kind enough to say, i think the results of the 2000 election were unfair. al gore certainly feels that way. i can tell you on the night that the supreme court made its decision there were people in the campaign urging al to go back to the florida supreme court and appeal and there was some feeling we might win there. and al gore said this has to stop in the national interest. whether we can win or not, we're about a month away from a transition in our government. and you know, that's the way america's always been, and that's the way we've got to get back to being for the sake of the country. >> somebody has to win this presidential election. and it's going to be -- you called it a war. and there is going to be a lot of damage. and there is going to be a lot of rebuilding that needs to be done. you're endorsing hillary clinton. if she wins, what's your advice to her to heal the nation? >> yeah. >> no labels is going to hold a summit meeting in washington in early december. we got 100 members of congress of both parties. we hope to have the president elect. and we're going to talk about how to make the peace and begin to solve some of the nation's problems. stop fighting each other and start fixing some of america's problems. what would i say? if hillary clinton is elected president -- and i believe she'll do this. based on working with her for eight years in the u.s. senate. when i watched her time and again reach across party lines to get things done. she's going to say the election's over, the campaign is over, and now we've all got to focus together and not the advantage for our party today or two years or four years. we've got real problems in our economy. we're threatened in the world in our security. and we've got to pull together. and i'm willing -- i want her to say, and i believe she will, that she's willing to compromise, to not ask for everything in order to get some good things done for our country. >> all right. joe lieberman, former senator from connecticut, good to have you on the show. good catching up. >> great to be here. >> appreciate it. coming up, urban versus world, city versus country. we're going to break down what's really behind hillary clinton's growing lead in the polls. it's a massive divide and one that's still going to be hard to heal come post-november. stay tuned. soon, she'll be binge-studying. now she writes mostly in emoji. soon, she'll type the best essays in the entire 8th grade. today, the only spanish words he knows are burrito and enchilada. soon, he'll take notes en espanol. get back to great with the right gear. from the place with the experts. office depot officemax. gear up for school. gear up for great. be the you who doesn't cover your moderate to severe plaque psoriasis. be the you who shows up in that dress. who hugs a friend. who is done with treatments that don't give you clearer skin. be the you who controls your psoriasis with stelara® just 4 doses a year after 2 starter doses. stelara® may lower your ability to fight infections and may increase your risk of infections and cancer. some serious infections require hospitalization. before treatment, get tested for tuberculosis. before starting stelara® tell your doctor if you think you have an infection or have symptoms such as: fever, sweats, chills, muscle aches or cough. always tell your doctor if you have any signs of infection, have had cancer, if you develop any new skin growths or if anyone in your house needs or has recently received a vaccine. alert your doctor of new or worsening problems, including headaches, seizures, confusion and vision problems these may be signs of a rare, potentially fatal brain condition. some serious allergic reactions can occur. do not take stelara® if you are allergic to stelara® or any of its ingredients. most people using stelara® saw 75% clearer skin and the majority were rated as cleared or minimal at 12 weeks. be the you who talks to your dermatologist about stelara®. i'm not a customer, but i'm calling about that credit scorecard. 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[bill o'reilly sighs] and as of now, i'd have to say no. nexium 24hfor their own#1 choice of docfrequent heartburn.s for complete protection all day and night make nexium 24hr your #1 choice. up next on "mtp daily" larry sabato breaks out his crystal ball and we're going to break down a couple of fascinating battleground maps. wait till you see how we organized things. but first here's courtney reagan. stocks gained ground purk all three major indices to new highs. the dow rises 117 points. the s&p climbs 10. the nasdaq up 23 points. macy's shares surged 17% today. the company posted profits that beat estimates. revenue also came in ahead of targets. the retailer also announcing it's going to close 100 stores. and nordstrom is out with results that exceeded expectations. the stock rose more than 7% during today's session. it's up about 11% in late trading. that's it for now from cnbc. we're first in business worldwide. what makes wendy's baconator different? while the other guys use frozen beef from far away. wendy's only serves fresh beef from ranches close by. so we don't have to freeze it. add six strips of thick, applewood smoked bacon. and wendy's baconator isn't just different, it's deliciously different. one number 21 in the books. a dog, talked. we're decedent from the mighty wolf. a voice was heard. if you build it, he will come. a girl discovered magic. a revolution began. welcome, to the wonders that happen, everyday. welcome, to it all. comcast. boy, the polls are really tightening up. they're getting a little bit nervous with their hundreds of millions of dollars that they're spending on ads. clinton is getting a little bit nervous. crooked hillary. she's getting a little bit concerned. >> that was donald trump today in miami beach saying the polls are tightening up. and in florida they are tight right now but not in our latest national poll, nor our battlegrounds that we've been releasing. nbc news/"wall street journal"/marit polls. here's a quick refresher. hillary clinton up just four points in iowa against donald trump but that has been her worst state and her having a lead there is a big deal. five-point advantage in ohio after being tied before the convention. and of course this 11-point lead in pennsylvania. clinton's lead grew in all three states since before the conventions. all three are incredibly critical for donald trump's path to 270. he has a northern tier strategy. but let's look. that's just part of the story. take a look at the climb for trump right now. using the real clear politics polling average, and we assigned each candidate in any state where they have a five-point lead or more in the average, hillary clinton using that is already at 273 electoral votes. with seven seats -- seven states left on the board, five of which by the way president obama carried in 2012. 273 electoral votes in states where she has a five-point lead or more. so how is she doing it? check out this map just in pennsylvania. it's our pennsylvania vote broken down by region. clinton is up in the urban centers. trump is on top in the rural areas. but it's the philadelphia suburbs where trump truly has the problem. clinton has a commanding 52-26 lead there. 26-point lead. folks, that is how you get an 11-point statewide advantage in pennsylvania. joining me now is larry sabato, director of the university of virginia's center for politics and keeper of his own battleground map. and of course the sabato crystal ball. mr. sabato, how are you, sir? >> i'm doing great, chuck. how are you doing? >> i'm good. larry, one of our compatriots in this weird business that we're in of trying to prognosticate sometimes, stu rothenberg, said the election's over, we're just having to mark basically run out the clock till november. essentially barring something that we don't know that everything is locking in here. is that how you see it? >> well, in march my website, the crystal ball, that you just mentioned issued an electoral map. hillary clinton, 347, well above the 270 needed. donald trump 191. and i'm starting to question the 191. so let's just say i smell the cake baking. i think you do too. and stu certainly does. and donald trump will have to change dramatically. we talk about these resets and pivots. and they remind me of multiple marriages. the triumph of hope over experience. >> one of the things, though, about -- the interesting thing about pennsylvania in particular, but it works in other states is trump is outperforming romney in rural -- in the rural parts of each of these battlegrounds. but he's massively underperforming romney in the suburbs. but what this sets up, larry, is something that we should be concerned about post-november, which is we're going to have a bigger divide between rural and essentially urban and suburban america, that rural and suburban america are in one place, values, culture, all these things, rural america in another, and governing that and bridging that divide becomes harder after this election, does it not? >> absolutely. and check, another reason is because that's already happened in the house of representatives. the republicans in the house are heavily concentrated in rural areas. that's where their votes come from. they have very little in common with the democrats who are elected to the white house on an urban coalition, central city, suburbs, and some exurbs. and it's one reason why we have this gridlock and can't get anything done. >> you know, one of the most fascinating things i've noticed in the drip of republicans endorsing clinton and who they are, they all seem to either come from states that had -- where you had to win with swing votes or congressional districts, i'm thinking chris shays, i'm thinking of gordon humphrey in new hampshire, that these are -- tom ridge of pennsylvania. you're not seeing people bail on trump who come from rural america. >> that's correct again. and look, those congressional districts either are held by democrats or don't exist anymore because of gerrymandering. that's another fundamental problem in our system in trying to get president and congress together, assuming that hillary clinton wins. >> put your professor hat on here. you've studied elections your whole adult life. explain to the country why our system is not rigged. >> it's not rigds -- and it's not perfect by any means. it's possible for people to hack into some of these computer systems around the country. i'm not denying that. but the system itself isn't rigged because so many people are watching and watching carefully. and if you're talking about just the election day vote, i have great confidence in it. we also have hundreds of thousands of precincts in 50 states plus the district of columbia. so if there's a problem, it's often isolated. and that's another safeguard for the system. >> it's a reminder, there is no federal involvement in our presidential election system. it's a series of 51 elections. >> that's right. and so again, you could have a system go bad, as we had in florida in 2000. no one would defend what happened in florida in 2000. but it was relatively isolated. it's a big state. you wouldn't want it to happen in a big state. but all in all, we have a lot of safeguards in place and we've put more safeguards in place after 2000. >> very quickly, what's more likely, hillary clinton drops below 300 electoral votes or she gets north of 400 electoral votes? >> oh, the 400. i doubt that happens, but it wouldn't shock me terribly. i could see her going to 370, 380. i've got her at 347. i've never changed in all these months. i've never changed an electoral vote. and i may add some others to her very quickly. >> we will be watching. larry sabato, always good to talk to you, sir. >> thank you, chuck. >> we have new evidence that the democratic data breach may have been worse than reported. what are the chances of another data dump? we'll find out after this. from long island to buffalo, from rochester to the hudson valley, from albany to utica, creative business incentives, infrastructure investment, university partnerships, and the lowest taxes in decades are creating a stronger economy and the right environment in new york state for business to thrive. let us help grow your company's tomorrow- today at business.ny.gov legalzoom has your back. for your business, our trusted network of attorneys has provided guidance to over 100,000 people just like you. visit legalzoom today. the legal help you can count on. legalzoom. legal help is here. hair is delightfully fragrancedl with notes of moroccan rose and the freshness of springtime unforgettable, wherever you go the scents you can't forget... from herbal essences, blooming now! mapping the oceans. where we explore. protecting biodiversity. everywhere we work. defeating malaria. improving energy efficiency. developing more clean burning natural gas. my job? 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"my mother secretly told me she's voting democrat for the first time. but don't tell my dad." there's been talk throughout this election of a secret trump vote, people who tell pollsters they don't support the candidate but they really do. silent majority type thing. but there's another theory out there, and there's some evidence to prove it, that there's a substantial secret clinton vote made up mostly of republican women. it's an idea supported on the front page of the "new york times" yesterday in a headline that said "trump's support among republican women is starting to slide." we don't yet have specific numbers, and some of this stuff you can't do by polling because they don't want to tell anybody. but be watching for this and don't be surprised if at least there's an equal amount of secret clinton voters and secret trump voters and they cancel each other out or there may be more clinton vote than you think. anyway, our nbc news survey monkey poll from this week did show a gap between clinton and trump among women voters that is now hitting 24 points. with clinton at 58 and trump at 34. keep an eye on that divide as we get closer to november. we'll have more "mtp daily" in a moment. ♪ ♪ introduces new, easy-to-swallow tablets. so now, there are more ways, for more people... to experience... complete protection from frequent heartburn. nexium 24hr. the easy-to-swallow tablet is here. would suffice for jordan's bachelor party. i don't need a sword, i'm a firemaid. ding dong! i'm going to give this place a killer review. i don't know, i just always thought maybe my bachelor party would be a little less g-rated. wench! ahhh! ahhh hahaha... oooh! party time! party boy! ok, ok. mm hm, party time. hmm, mmm, mmm... the media's talking today about another controversy over semantics. but let's be very clear. it was barack obama and hillary clinton who helped undo all the hard-fought gains in "operation iraqi freedom" that our soldiers won in securing that nation. >> i'm joined again by the panel. at this table two days ago, and i can't remember who described it, but somebody said poor mike pence is like the guy who has to clean up after the elephants at the circus. he had to do it again. at what point does he get tired of this, susan? >> i think november 8th. this is the role of a vice president. >> that is an argument you can make. you can make the argument that actions by this administration open the door to the rise of isis. you could make that argument. you can't make the argument -- >> that's what kellyanne was trying to make. but no, dobld trump refused to accept that version. in fact he rejected it as you said when hugh hewitt gave him an exit door. he chose to close it. >> clarence, we were talking about the battleground map. there's a state in the battleground, or might be a battleground, utah. what's interesting is hillary clinton did an op-ed to the "deseret news," which is owned by the church. donald trump was invited to do it. he didn't do it. but donald trump did speak about his problems in utah today. i want to play it right here. >> i'm having a tremendous problem in utah. utah's a different place. i don't know. is anybody here from utah? i didn't think so. we're having a problem. it could cost us a supreme court. we're having four or five justices put on. we're having a problem. i've been given a false narrative. >> he sounds genuinely hurt. he thinks everybody loves him. when he runs into something like this it puzzles him. part of his problem in utah is many of the religious folks in utah believe in welcoming the stranger as the bible says. you don't tell refugees you can't -- >> the governor of utah -- this is exactly where hillary clinton honed in on this op-ed in the "deseret news." hillary clinton, "what i have in common with utah leaders, religious freedom and the constitution." she says "the next president will swear an oath to preserve protect and defend that document for successive generations and if you give me the honor to serve as your president i will fight every day to carry out that sacred responsibility." whenop-ed, it was as if she had spent a little bit of time understanding what do members of the lds church care about, what -- it was some would say a little too focus group, maybe a little too perfect but that's what a candidate is supposed to do, listen to what voters care about. i don't quite know what trump was doing there. >> if you have to worry about utah in my party, what do you think's going on in virginia or colorado? as a matter of fact, the battleground state list is shrinking to a point where larry sabatow is talking and praying that's not the case. pretty smart guy. i have known him for 30 years. but frankly when you start looking at these numbers, you start looking at demographics, you look at northern virginia, look at colorado, they're out of grasp. you got to win five out of six midwestern states. we haven't done that since '84. you just showed the polling numbers in pennsylvania. they are beginning to break away. that's why i would have signed that letter. i think, i mean, look -- >> the letter referring to telling reince priebus no more money for trump, put it all in the senate? >> all in the senate and the house, because it's not just the polling numbers today. it's the strategy. what is it? how do we get there? >> susan, your home state of kansas. >> five points. >> there's a robopoll so they don't have the best track record, but still -- >> it's hard for me to imagine a day when kansas will once again vote for a democrat. i guess it could come. one thing about utah, unlike some other states it's not the result of demographic changes. it's the result of a philosophical argument that donald trump has made. >> on the muslim ban. >> on the muslim ban and mormons' attitudes about immigration, their support for immigrants, very welcoming community for immigrants and offended, i think, by the rhetoric that donald trump has used. not because in some states, colorado's gotten more his papa. that is not the case when you look at utah. >> very quickly, the dnc hack may have been deeper, worse, more people done and more evidence that it points at the russians. i guess, al, i'm sort of disturbed by where is the national security outrage about this? >> absolutely. if countries can tinker with our election outcome, that's the ultimate fear in america, right? our greatest institution is power and democracy. if somebody can tinker with that, either with that or with election results, all of a sudden you have a crisis beyond comprehension. >> i'm seeing too much of this as people are looking at this through the prism of red and blue. like wait a minute, this doesn't feel like a red/blue incident. this should be the same level of outrage whether it was the rnc or the dnc. if the russian government is doing this. >> i, like a lot of other journalists, have been trying to wake up people to this for several years, we have had this espionage and cyberhacking problem for years and it's gotten worse. every day and night our systems are being hit from overseas, china, russia, you name it. i think maybe this election will bring enough attention that maybe people will get excited about it but why is donald trump not making a bigger deal out of it? >> this could benefit him. look, the october surprise is sitting right in front of us. we know what's the going to be. we just don't know what it will say. >> this has the potential for an october surprise. so does the additional release of the clinton foundation, the e-mails by hillary clinton. there are a couple -- we should not think in august this election is done yet. >> there are always more hurdles. thank you all. lively day today. more right after this. i'm hillary clinton, and i approve this message. michael hayden: if he governs consistent with some of the things he said as a candidate, i would be very frightened. gillian turner: he's been talking about the option of using a nuclear weapon against our western european allies. max boot: this is not somebody who should be handed the nuclear codes. charles krauthammer: you have to ask yourself, do i want a person of that temperament controlling the nuclear codes? and as of now, i'd have to say no. [bill o'reilly sighs] and as of now, i'd have to say no. be the you who doesn't cover your moderate to severe plaque psoriasis. be the you who shows up in that dress. who hugs a friend. who is done with treatments that don't give you clearer skin. be the you who controls your psoriasis with stelara® just 4 doses a year after 2 starter doses. stelara® may lower your ability to fight infections and may increase your risk of infections and cancer. some serious infections require hospitalization. before treatment, get tested for tuberculosis. before starting stelara® tell your doctor if you think you have an infection or have symptoms such as: fever, sweats, chills, muscle aches or cough. always tell your doctor if you have any signs of infection, have had cancer, if you develop any new skin growths or if anyone in your house needs or has recently received a vaccine. alert your doctor of new or worsening problems, including headaches, seizures, confusion and vision problems these may be signs of a rare, potentially fatal brain condition. some serious allergic reactions can occur. do not take stelara® if you are allergic to stelara® or any of its ingredients. most people using stelara® saw 75% clearer skin and the majority were rated as cleared or minimal at 12 weeks. be the you who talks to your dermatologist about stelara®. words panera lives by. no artificial flavors, preservatives, sweeteners. no colors from artificial sources. 100% of our food will be clean by year's end. that's food as it should be. ♪ ♪ everything is cool when you're watching a screen ♪ ♪ everything is awesome, ♪ when you're sharing a meme ♪ ♪ a voice remote, "show me angry kings" ♪ ♪ you know what's awesome? everything! ♪ ♪ apps that please, more selfies, ♪ ♪ endless hours of the best tvs ♪ ♪ brand new apps, shows to go, ♪ ♪ awesome internet that's super whoa... ♪ ♪ everything is awesome xfinity. the future of awesome. that's all we have. we only have 60 minutes. if i had more time i would have used it. back tomorrow. have a great night. what's the father of the man responsible for the orlando massacre doing at a hillary clinton rally? >> the man we spotlighted in the crowd is former congressman mark foley. >> the campaigns are being questioned over a couple people spotted at their rallies. >> look who's right behind clinton. >> right there, spotted in the crowd standing behind hillary clinton. >> trump had an unexpected supporter of his own. >> another controversial guest was spotted at a campaign rally but this time it was at a trump event. >> trump's campaign released a statement on tuesday saying it disavows his support.

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