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the economy is slowing ahead of the referendum. the bank of england has a tricky judgment call. it can t go too far out there politically and say what the economy would do if we were to vote against staying in the eu but it is clear the economy is slowing. the assumption is that the economy will pick up the growth it lost in the second quarter if the u.k. votes to stay in the eu. lots of headlines here. they are rate increases, are more likely than not. it may cause the pound to drop sharply. it sees inflation dropping. that is very important because as inflation is forecast to rise, the bank of england is telling us, rates are going to be raised in the forecast. in the 2-3-year horizon. investors will depend a lot on what happens in the upcoming referendum. the big take away is that yes, the bank of england has cut the gdp forecast for this year but it is not a big surprise. the economy is slowing and the back.ata is there is a slowdown in construction and manufacturin ....
where apple is putting their money, finally. let s head to the markets desk where julie hyman has a look at where investors are putting their money. much and stocks. after we got retail sales numbers earlier, we re just getting university of michigan consumer s been a, better than estimated like the retail sales were better than estimated, coming in at 95.8. expectations better than estimated, 87.5. when you look at the retail sales number, that defied expectations as well. even if you back out cars and gasoline, a cayman better than estimated. a lot of that strength because of non-store retailers. because of e-commerce. that number includes catalog and direct mail sales. nonetheless, it looks like e-commerce, and accounted for each some of these strengths. a bit of a muddling along to end the week. take a look at the groups on the move. technology a strong, only at .4%. consumer discretionary leading the losses, because as betty mentioned, we do have individual retai ....
shareholders, we will speak to longman s ceo later in the program. than half an hour away from the european equity market open, and let me slide across to give you an idea of where we think the day will start here in europe. this looks like it will be a fairly positive picture. stoxx up 0.7%. well.n the front foot as everything opening up around 0.5%. german market is looking strong this morning. other assets, let s see what is happening around the world this morning. higher,gher, 1.25% $48.43. goldman sachs sees changes in the gold market. shanghai on the front foot. the resale name retail number was actually quite good. ar, this is the one need to worry about, versus the chinese renminbi. a trading need to pay attention to. pushing up north of january highs quickly. are we going to see a significant outflow once again developing? we have a surprise for you this morning. not only stephen major from hsbc, but my colleague from matt miller my colleague matt miller fr ....
quarter progressed really hit the company among all these retail concerns. joe: an ugly day all around, consumer staples losing, consumer discretionary energy being one area that was positive. in looking for companies or sectors that did not decline, take a look at that xle. oil and gas companies make up the only sector that did not drop. this was along with oil prices. also, transportation needs seemed to decline. shipper reaffirmed its guidance, but rising oil prices ending t demand, improve their oil barge business. joe: in the government bond arena, we ve been watching a spread between the two year and year at its- ten flattest level since late 2007. 2-10 spreadsheet continuing to flatten out today. data, thehat cpi housing start pushing the dollar firmer against the yen. perhaps a sign that investors are cutting back on negativity surrounding the dollar. joe: on the commodity front, we mentioned energy stocks. one of thing down today, milk prices. this is good new ....
well but they are not doing much for stocks. not seeing a big decline. one would think, a b that is because it is bringing forward when the fed might raise rates but we are not seeing bond yields rise or the u.s. dollar. take a look at the bloomberg map . we have energy shares trading higher, consumer staples lower. a diverse group of groups doing poorly today although it seems like there is a little bit of a rotation out of the defensive s. within the consumer staples, have kraft heinz pulling back today. it does not look like a specific catalyst that is driving them lower. in terms of the dow loggers we have coca-cola and then we have been talking a lot about the home depot. they said the first quarter would likely be the high point for the year in terms of sales growth. it is off from january to february and february to march, slowing sales growth. that appears to be behind what we see in the selloffs. scarlet: and a bright spots? it looks like energy is the bright s ....