>> the senate says kushner withheld e-mails about a, quote, russian back door over tour. and house republicans pass the trump tax plan. >> i don't benefit. >> new analysis finds that the plan saves trump's family over $1 billion. >> i pay as little as possible. i fight like hell to pay as little as possible. >> when "all in" starts right now. good evening from new york. i'm chris hayes. the same president who has weighed in on everything from meryl streep's acting to social media policies of espn tonight has no opinion whatsoever on the voracity of the allegations that his party's nominee for u.s. senate in alabama pursued and sexually assaulted between age girls when he was an adult. reporte reporters today his press secretary studiously avoided taking a position on whether the white house refusing to take a stand on roy moore is the same white house that claims that every single one of those women, every single one of the president's accusers, is lying. >> obviously, sexual harassment has been in the news, at least 16 women accused the president of sexually harassing them throughout the course of the campaign. last week during a press conference, the president called these accusations fake news. is the official white house position that all of these women are lying? >> yeah, we've been clear on that from the beginning and the president has spoken on it. >> sabrina siddiqui. you wrote today about al franken. it seemed to me like it caught democrats flat-footed at first. what was the reaction on capitol hill among democrats? >> well, i certainly think that they were shocked by the initial report when it surfaced. but at the same time, as you noted, they were pretty quick to be unequivocal in their condemnation, both of his conduct, as well as their it may not be the media's hand that forces the white house to speak out. but republicans themselves, who believe that if moore is -- was elected, were to be elected later this winter, that it would be a burden for republicans next year running in the mid terms. and they want him out and they're telling that privately, i know, based on my reporting to the white house tonight. >> you know, that point you make there, the sort of catastrophic success of a moore win is a good point, right? that you can imagine a situation which basically every democrat running in the senate basically opts to run against roy moore as opposed to their actual opponent, because he would be so toxic in so many parts of the country, right? >> he would. and they believe they would have to have immediate investigations. you already have the majority leader calling for him to possibly be expelled from the senate. and they also know that they have a 52-seat majority now in the senate. if doug jones, the democrat, wins, it's 51-49. you have a lot of seats on the edge right now for republicans. look at arizona in particular, nevada. this is a danger zone as one republican operative put it to me. >> the latest polling, we should say this is a really remarkable poll, this is out of alabama from fox news. it has doug jones up by eight points. that's the democrat in alabama, doug jones, up by eight points, 50-42. sabrina, it was a very interesting moment in the presser today when huckabee sanders was asked about roy moore repeatedly and asked about al franken. and the al franken question in normal circumstances would be red meat for the white house to go right after. and you could tell she wanted no part of it. why do you think that is? >> well, it's two-fold. one is because they're refuse to go take a position on roy moore. how are you going to take a position on roy moore, who has been accused by multiple women of sexual misconduct, including those who are saying he preyed upon them when they were teenagers. so how can you not take a position on that, and then in the same breath or the next breath, i should say, denounce al franken and make a big deal of the story that came out today. the other issue is, as you noted in your own monologue, this is a president who himself has been accused of sexual assault by more than a dozen women. those -- access hollywood tapes heard around the world where he bragged about groping and kissing women without their consent. and republicans on capitol hill have been unable to say why roy moore accusers are somehow more credible than donald trump's accusers. what is the distinction between the allegations that are being made? and just one quick note about democrats, because we're talking about potentially roy moore being expelled from the senate. i don't think they're necessarily going to move to expel al franken but face a question about what their policy is going to be. are they going to have a zero tolerance policy, call on al franken to resign or create some categories for the level of sexual assault that i don't think that's where they want to be. >> to that point, sabrina, and you've covered capitol hill for a while and i used to cover capitol hill. i mean, the senate at this committee is going to be very busy and rightly so, if they start getting referrals for sexual harassment. because that is not something that -- that is happening on capitol hill. i think anyone who has worked there will tell you. and not just staffers. members, as well. to sabrina's point, robert, about the president's own accusers. i'm really curious. does that factor in the thinking in this white house? there's two ways i can see them thinking about it. we beat it. we beat the charge. i'm the president. it's never going to burn us again. or that was really close. i never want to relitigate that again. which of the two is it in that white house? >> the calculation, based on numerous conversations i had, is more political than about weighing in on these harassment -- the broader debate about harassment and sexual misconduct in the country. my point is this. they don't want to be embarrassed again in alabama. he got behind luther strange, the incumbent senator. they feel if they move against moore now, and he somehow wins that senate seat, that's a political disaster for president trump, with his own base, and in a state that he considers his own political base. so i'm sure there is some calculation, chris, inside the white house about not wanting to wade into an unfriendly territory for the president, to say the least. but at the same time, it's more politics, politics, politics, in the conversations i'm having. >> i just want to note how remarkable it is that the president's people are thinking, well, this person stands accused of sexual assault against a 14-year-old that she rolled out of the car afterwards. he stands accused of calling up a teenager in her trigg class to try to get her to go out with him. but, you know, if we come out against him, we might lose and end up looking bad. sabrina sadiqy and robert costa, great to have you both. >> thank you. >> your writing has been phenomenal, if you don't mind my saying. sabrina brought this up and this morning you saw in al franken, there is this question, is he going to resign. what is the -- we're figuring out what's the proper punishment for the particular crime or misconduct. what do you think it is in the case of franken? >> well, i think the franken case is really complicated. i have a column out now that says he should resign. and i don't say that really lightly or happily. and i see the argument against him resigning. i think is also very strong, right? this thing that he has accused is the wrong word. this thing that he did does not rise to the level of, you know, sexually assaulting 14-year-olds. doesn't rise to the level of what donald trump does. i still think that just having this -- even though it's a false equivalency, you know, kind of having now this thing hanging over the democrats, even though i think that al franken has been such a good senator, i thought he should run for president before this. but i just -- this idea of kind of slogging it out in an ethics investigation and then waiting to see what kind of penalty they're able to concoct. and also what kind of investigation. i mean, does the senate now do an investigation into his presenate sex life? >> right. >> what does that even -- we don't even know what that looks like. >> well, it also strikes me that part of the issue here, and we keep seeing this, where there's two, there's 20. that it has been the case that one allegation, it has not been often that there is simply one allegation. >> right. so my -- what i -- and i don't say this lightly, and i'm not convinced that i'm right. >> i can hear you working through. >> but i do think that maybe the best thing he could do is just say, i'm resigning. we have to have a zero tolerance policy for this. you know. and draw a real clear distinction between how the republicans handled this, rather than letting it trickle out and trickle out and trickle out. and then resigning after that and forcing everybody to take a stand and decide whether or not to defend him. i mean, it's just -- it's such a painful process. >> the other option is just to bowl through. and we have seen roy moore do it. i don't know if you saw that press conference today. it was remarkable. it seemed disassociative and totally detached from reality. i want to play what bannon said last week about how he counseled the president to get through the "access hollywood" week, because i think it's quite illuminating in terms of the roy moore book. >> the bezos, amazon, "washington post" that dropped that dime on donald trump is the same bezos, amazon, "washington post" that dropped the dime this afternoon on judge roy moore. now, is that a coincidence? billy bush saturday we got kind of a high command, and everybody went around the room and they were telling some guy is going 60 minutes and crying on ivanka's shoulder and do this and do that and apologize and apologize and apologize. said we doubled down now. right? you're donald trump and they're not. right? i said, let's go have a rally. >> that's what roy moore is doing. >> right. and i think you can get away with that as a republican in part because there's not a consensus, i think, around gender equality on the right. i don't think there's a consensus among a lot of the people in alabama that it's really so wrong for a 30-something-year-old to pursue teenagers, at least as long as he asks their parents' permission. and if something untoward happened, whose fault was it really? you have such a different set of ethics that people are trying to uphold, even if imperfectly and hypocritically among democrats, that i think just kind of -- he probably can. i mean, what al franken has done here is not so terrible that he probably can't just, like, gut it out if there are no other accusations. but he does so at the risk of kind of derailing this conversation we're now having about sexual harassment and assault and accountability. and just sort of, you know, kind of putting this cultural moment, this really remarkable cultural moment to an end, possibly discouraging other women who have had bad experiences with members of congress from coming forward. i think it just -- it's a really -- again, it becomes then this sort of just like ugly -- >> yeah. >> you know, thing in which this ugly -- >> mutual finger-pointing. and the moment about politicians, i feel like, we're at the forefront of that and there is probably more to come on that front. michelle goldberg. tonight the senate calls on jared kushner to come clean, alleging he withheld e-mails they know exist about wikileaks and, and i quote here, a backdoor russia overture. that in two minutes. voluntarily provided will show that all of my actions were proper and occurred in the normal course of events of a very unique campaign. >> that was jared kushner, the president's son-in-law and senior adviser after meeting with senate investigators this summer. today senators chuck grassley and dianne feinstein, from each party, the bipartisan leaders said kushner did not provide all of the documents they asked for. in fact, in a letter to kushner's lawyer, they write, we appreciate your voluntary cooperation with the committee's investigation. but the production appears to have been incomplete. these are documents the committee says are known to exist, and they include but are not limited to documents concerning what the committee calls, quote, a russian back door overture and dinner invite. a december 2016 e-mail communications to mr. kushner concerning wikileaks, and communications with milian, be founder of a trade group. grassley and feinstein say kushner has until the 27th of this month to comply with their request. kushner's lawyer released a statement saying in part, mr. kushner and we have been responsive to all requests. we will be open to responding to any additional requests. with me now, political correspondent with business insider, who has written extensively about the trumps' campaigns alleged ties to russia. first you start with the context. jared kushner, man, just seems to be leaving a lot of stuff out of a lot of stuff. as we -- as we go through this year. >> yeah. i mean, he's had to update his security clearance form at least twice, and the second time he had to add at least 100 foreign contacts he just accidentally left out the first time. >> 100 foreign counties. >> 100 contacts. he had a private e-mail address he did not disclose to investigators which then they wanted more information about because he had testified and didn't mention anything about that. and now we're learning he did not disclose these e-mails about wikileaks, about alleged russian back door overture. and about this guy, sergey milian, who is alleged to have played a really big role in this dossier. >> yeah, who is milian? what's his deal? >> so he is a belarusan-american and founded this organization called the russian-american chamber of commerce. he has said he has close business ties with donald trump. who knows whether or not that's actually true. he might have just been inflating himself for his own publicity. but he has worked for the trump organization in the past. there are pictures of milian and trump together. and essentially reports have suggested that milian is a source in that trump-russia dossier. that he is source d.e -- he essentially told an associate the kremlin was feeding damaging information about hillary clinton to donald trump. he was also the -- >> wow -- >> -- alleged source of the prostitute information. the alleged sex scandal that donald trump, you know, participated in when he was in moscow. >> so you've got -- milian now sort of tied in -- writing. they're asking about this. what does it say about what they know? it's sort of an interesting letter, right? because they're saying, you're busted. presumably because they have e-mails from other people knowing that he was copied on it. >> i think dianne feinstein and chuck grassley were frustrated. this is the reason why they released this letter to the public. they don't normally blast out letters like this. it was clearly an indication they are sick and tired of jared kushner omitting this very important information. and it's also important to note that in terms of what the campaign knew, the contact with milian is interesting, because milian was actually telling people he was in contact with george papadopoulos throughout the entire campaign. >> huh. >> and through the transition. and george papadopoulos, of course, is the one who had said that he received information from a kremlin-linked professor, sarg they had damaging information about hillary clinton. >> including her e-mails. >> including her e-mails. which then papadopoulos may have told milian, which he then may have told christopher steele. so it's all convoluted, but the pieces are starting to come together. >> so here's the other thing that really perked up my ears when i read this piece. was that we sort of have forgotten about this moment. but the "washington post" reported that kushner tried to set up a back-channel communication in the russian embassy. remember this? crazy thing that he sneaks kislyak into trump tower. he -- they have a conversation in which apparently he proposes, like, can we go to the embassy where we can have a back-channel communication with russia. if there's earlier intrigues about that before that happens, that would seem to maybe link something together. >> exactly. so it's unclear what these back channels were actually about in the e-mails. but what was my first instinct was that kushner had essentially followed up somehow to talk about this plan to create this back channel with russia via the russian embassy using russian diplomatic facilities in the u.s. kushner says that it was to discuss syria. but the -- >> bring a piece to syria. he was so intent and so focused on bringing peace to syria. so concerned that normal diplomatic channels wouldn't do it, he thought of the extraordinary step of doing this so syria could be at peace. >> he felt he had to bypass the u.s. intelligence committee in order to get this information -- >> to bring peace to syria. >> for an administration that wasn't even in power yet. he. ed to go around the intelligence community, use russian diplomatic facilities. he said he did not want to use the diplomatic facilities. but, of course, the "washington post" reported that that was what happened. he said i want to know if there is a back channel already in place at the russian embassy that we can use to discuss this privately. >> so we could imagine that there might be some -- it sounds like there is an e-mail out there somewhere someone has in which the idea of a back channel is floated to someone. >> which means more people now about this meeting than michael flynn and sergey kislyak. this was produced to several people, which is something that dianne feinstein and chuck grassley wanted to make clear in their letter. >> it's like, we have this stuff, you didn't just give it to us. we know you have it. natasha bertrand, thank you very much. put money back in the pockets of average middle class americans. today we found one lucky family that could see savings of over $1 billion. guess which family? 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( ♪ ) going to get killed in this bill. i'm guessing you might have been skeptical of that claim. and with good reason. nbc news commission did an analysis of the tax bill passed today by the house, and it found that trump and his heirs potentially could save more than $1 billion if the bill becomes law. the analysis based on two things. the first is trump's 2005 tax return first revealed by rachel maddow. if the tax bill had been that year, trump would have saved $20 million himself thanks to the repeal of the alternative minimum tax. also based on the assumption that trump is, as he claims, a billionaire. because the house bill repeals the estate tax. trump's heirs would be able to inherit their father's wealth tax-free. it is definitely possible that his heirs don't stand to inherit nearly so much. this week, the magazine "cranes" reported the trump organization had fallen steeply in its list of the largest privately held companies from number three to 40. following the president's disclosures to federal regulators it revealed the revenue is less than a tenth of what the firm had reported since at least 2010. so mr. president, if you're watching, we are happy to redo the analysis. it definitely seems very possible you aren't worth anywhere near what you claim. so if you can just go ahead and send over your tax returns, i promise we'll get right on it. they really appreciate the military family, and it really shows. we've got auto insurance, homeowners insurance. had an accident with a vehicle, i actually called usaa before we called the police. usaa was there hands-on very quick very prompt. i feel like we're being handled as people that actually have a genuine need. we're the webber family and we are usaa members for life. usaa, get your insurance quote today. is now a good time to refinance? yes! mortgage rates are historically low. the time to refinance your home is right now. get started at lendingtree.com. the only place you can compare up to five real offers, side by side, for free. our average customer can significantly lower their monthly bills. quick. beat the fed's next rate hike. do not miss this window. are you sure you have the best rate? it only takes 3 minutes to find out. go to lendingtree.com right now. tax bill. house republicans breaking into cheers as the bill crossed the threshold needed for passage without a single democratic vote. >> this is about giving hard-working taxpayers bigger paychecks, more take home pay. this is about giving those families who are struggling peace of mind. it's about getting this economy to grow faster so we get bigger wages, more jobs, and we put america in the driver's seat and the global economy once again. >> what the bill is actually about is giving a massive tax cut to corporations once in a generation and wealthy individuals like donald trump. everyone else either gets a relatively small tax cut or somewhat amazingly, actually sees their taxes go up. last time house republicans passed a bill this big was in may, and the president held a big wildly premature party in the rose garden. remember that? we all know how that turned out. there was wisely no rose garden party this time around. as it bill must pass the senate, which, if passed would then need to be reconciled with the house bill. about we should say, passage is not a sure thing. eight senators expressed reservations about the bill and republicans can only lose two votes and still pass it. and then there's this. today the joint committee on taxation, the official nonpartisan analysis reported over the next decade the senate bill would give large tax cuts to millionaires while raising taxes on american families earning $10,000 to $75,000. with me now, former u.s. secretary of labor, robert reich, start of the netflix documentary, "saving capitalism" based on his book of the same name. i am almost amazed they have been able to pull off a huge tax cut that manages to raise taxes on some people. i'm still scratching my head about how that's possible. >> chris, it's the big lie. you know, if you say the same thing over and over again, and you have a con man like donald trump who says lies, you know, like he eats, like he breathes, well, then people eventually are going to believe it, because they're not hearing the other side very clearly. and the other side comes out in the joint tax committee, or the -- or other organizations that are policy wonks, actually looking at the data. but when you have these big voices just saying over and over again, you're going to get a tax cut, people begin to believe it. it is one of the biggest lies of the generation. and hopefully people will catch on before there's a final vote. >> well, you know, you say that -- it is polling relatively poorly, particularly for a tax cut which usually has the wind at its back. there are a bunch of yes votes from california republicans. i think only three no votes from that delegation. and it's remarkable, because if you look at california and new york and new jersey, you look at the places that are represented by republicans, folks in high housing cost areas, folks that pay local and state taxes. there's going to be people in those districts who have republican representatives whose taxes are going to go up. they're going to realize it then if the thing becomes law, won't they? >> well, they will. but remember, this entire escapade, this entire tax cut, is paid back for the republican donor class. this is what it's all about. republicans are not really looking at the polls right now. they are very aware of the fact that the donor class -- i'm talking about, you know, the mercers and the rickettes and the koch brothers and all of the people who have invested so much in the gop. what they want is, they look at this as any other kind of development. they want to return on that investment, and the return on the investment was going to be a huge tax cut. the stock market has been going up in anticipation of a corporate tax cut. it has nothing to do with the real economy. it has nothing to do with what's happening to average people. it's just a big pay back for the major donors. >> this return on investment concept is useful when you talk about major donors. these are -- the gop heirs. and donors that stand to gain from this. my favorite is sheldon miriam adelson, contributed $82.5 million in 2016 alone to republicans. that's a lot of money. but they're looking at an estate tax cut of almost $15 billion. that is an incredible turn on investment, and it goes on and on and on. you can understand why the donor class is so motivated by this. >> they're not only motivated right now, but look at over the next 30 years. the really rich billionaire and semi billionaire baby boomers are going to be transferring about $30 trillion to their children. i mean, you're going to have the biggest intergenerational transfer of wealth in history. and if they can eliminate the estate tax and if they can actually wangel things so there is no capital gains tax, we are creating a dine at particular class in america as fast as we possibly can. it shouldn't be called the estate tax, not the death tax. we should call it the dynastic tax. >> on the loser side of the ledger, and i thought you would have something to say about this, because you're an academic, you've worked in academia, you teach at berkeley. grad students -- i mean, so here you have billionaire donors -- the adelsons stand to gain about $15 billion. meanwhile, grad students who are not living high on the hog, if you know any grad students, any out there watching, are looking at a 400% tax increase because essentially, the full value of their tuition stipend is going to be counted as income. they're now going to be paying taxes if they're making $10,000 a year, paying taxes on $70,000. they are hosed. >> well, they're hosed. graduate students are hosed. the people who are really sicker and older and depending on the affordable care act, they are getting hosed, because it's going to be $300 billion taken from them. and given to corporations and the rich in terms of tax cuts. i mean, what this republican bill -- and you look at both bills, what you see is just an extraordinary amount of money that is being redistributed upward from people who don't have very much or have almost nothing to people who have everything. people who have never had in the history of america more. and corporations -- corporations who are flush with cash. american corporations, are right now pulling in half of the profits of all corporations in the entire world, even though we are one-fifth the size of the world economy. and what are these corporations doing? what they do with all this money is they buy back their shares of stock in order to raise the price of the share of stock. and by raising the price of the share of stock, they're not helping all americans. because the top 1% owns about 40% of the value of the shares of stock. and the top 10% owns 80% of the entire stock market. so once again, chris, however you look at this, this is a redistribution upward from the average working person and the poor to people who have never had it so good. >> robert reich, thanks for being with me tonight. >> thanks, chris. still ahead, embarrassing, unpresidential, childish. we'll play what trump voters in north carolina are saying now, and how democrats are looking to leverage it, ahead. plus, tonight's thing one, thing two starts after this. thing 1 tonight. by now you've seen plenty about the water bottle-gate. the highlight of president trump's asia travel log address yesterday. the two mid speech fiji polls, trig earlying memories of marco rubio's i nfamous episode of dr mouth. didn't have an opportunity to update president trump's teleprompter moments. those times when he misreads or mispronounces a word and rifts his way out of it. all in all, the president managed to get through a speech fairly well. >> until it stops its dangerous prove-oc-ation and this is what we're doing on denuclearization. and joining the united states in sanctioning additional rogue actors whose fund and funds have helped north korea and north korea's nuclear and ballistic missile programs. >> far from terrible. but the trump teleprompter greatest hits, that's thing 2 in 60 seconds. 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[burke] that's one way to fire up the crowd. but we covered it. talk to farmers. we know a thing or two because we've seen a thing or two. ♪ we are farmers. bum-pa-dum, bum-bum-bum-bum ♪ giving lots of speeches is not easy, and even the best of us, as i just illustrated, teleprompter readers have stumbles. but we noticed there's one little trick the president uses frequently. if you make a mistake, just pretend you meant to do it. >> they sacrifice every day for the furniture, future of their children. authority and authoritarian powers. through their lives, and though their lives were cut short. and very importantly, air traffic controllers will highly -- and this will be highly valued. these are highly valued people. these are amazing people. our hope is a word and world of proud, independent nations. another historic step toward future development and future -- with a future -- a real future. and i have to say, that's a real future. what standard, and really, if you think of it, when you talk about the great sailors and the great sailors of the world, we have them. but what stranded sailor doesn't feel relief? should, should, should, should ♪ you could dance like you should can you dance like you should make the rules while dancing can you dance like you should 3 toddlers won't stop him.. and neither will lower back pain. because at a dr. scholl's kiosk he got a recommendation for our custom fit orthotic to relieve his foot, knee, or lower back pain, from being on his feet. dr. scholl's. born to move. ♪ ♪ hi! leaving a career to follow a calling takes courage. a personalized financial strategy can give you confidence to take the next step. hi guys! aw yeah! see how access to j.p. morgan investment expertise can help you. chase. make more of what's yours. chase. without pg&e's assistance, without their training our collaboration with pg&e is centered around public safety. we could not do our mission to keep our community safe. anytime we are responding to a structure fire, one of the first calls you make is for pg&e for gas and electric safety. it's my job to make sure that they have the training that they need to make the scene safe for themselves and for the public. it's hands-on training actually turning valves, turning systems off, looking at different wire systems all that training is crucial to keeping our community safe and our firefighters safe. together, we're building a better california. i've made my share of mistakes. but my mistakes were never a crime. i've learned through this process a lot about our system of justice. >> congressional democrats dodged a bullet today with the corruption trial of new jersey senator, bob menendez, declared a mistrial. jurors were unable to reach a verdict after nine weeks of testimony and seven days of deliberation. he was accused of acting as a personal doctor for a senator. it is said he accepted travel and campaign contributions and says the senator in turn intervened on behalf of business interests and helped arrange visas for his girlfriends. if he had been found guilty, menendez could have faced pressure to resign, allowing governor chris christie to potentially appoint a republican in his place and add to the gop's minority senate in which this time they're trying to get tax reform passed. new jersey voters in a quinnipiac poll last month overwhelmingly said menendez does not deserve re-election by 59%-19%. but if you're a democrat, even a very unpopular one, next year might be your best time to run. what recent democratic victories mean for possible blue wave in 2018, coming up next. life happens. call today, and install an adt starter kit that includes security panel, keypad, key fob, entry and motion sensors and for a limited time, get a camera included and installed at no additional cost. that's a $449.00 value, installed, for just $49.00. so we know how to cover almost we've anything.st everything even a "red-hot mascot." [mascot] hey-oooo! whoop, whoop! [crowd 1] hey, you're on fire! [mascot] you bet i am! [crowd 2] dude, you're on fire! [mascot] oh, yeah! [crowd 3] no, you're on fire! look behind you. [mascot] i'm cool. i'm cool. [burke] that's one way to fire up the crowd. but we covered it. talk to farmers. we know a thing or two because we've seen a thing or two. ♪ we are farmers. bum-pa-dum, bum-bum-bum-bum ♪ trump voters in north carolina expressed buyer's remor remorse over their election choice last year speaking last night. >> i feel like he told the people that he had all of these big ideas and big plans and it just seems to kind of roll to something else. it's like nothing is ever really accomplished. >> while i thought his ideas appeal to me, since he's been in there, he's embarrassed me by his behavior. >> he hasn't acted presidential at all. the tweets bother me. they might be enlightening to some people. i'm not a tweeter, but to me it's like firing off these tweets, it's just childish. >> democrats are already capitalizing on that dissatisfaction, racking up electoral victories across the country. the latest, a win on tuesday in a state and a district that has been unmistakably red. that is what oklahoma's state senate district 37 looked like last year when donald trump won by about 40 points. clinton pulling 27%. here's the same district tuesday night, when a democrat won the district senate seat in a special election. and i have to notice, not just any democrat, allison ikly freeman is a 26-year-old lesbian. she won by just 31 votes in a campaign heavy on turning out progressive voters, which ones there are, and while the special election turnout was low, this is still a striking flip. and it's hardly the only piece of good news for statehouse democrats this year. the list of seats flipped in state legislatures includes 15 seats in virginia, four seats in new jersey, four seats in oklahoma, two in georgia, four in new hampshire, and one each in washington, florida, and new york. tara dar dell is a democratic strategist and cornell belcher is a an msnbc analyst to discuss whether this looks like the beginning of a wave. as a pollster, what are you looking at right now? >> well, you know, it's -- and i was deemed pollster back in -- back in his run for the state strategy, going into 2006. and there are some things that look similar. we -- george pubush's approval s in the mid-30s. we forget that now, right? >> that's a good point. >> congressional job approval was in the 20s, right? you had the big wave of voters looking for change and democrats had a slight advantage on the favorability over republicans. it's a lot tighter now. but one of the things that you also saw was the energy, right? but there was also, from an issue standpoint, george bush killed us with terrorism and security, you know that, right? and then there was a values consideration. on the values, there was two big issues in 2004, where republicans had a huge advantage. there was terrorism and values. we said going in 2006, if we could cut those down from 30 and 20-point advantages, we may have a shot in these zrdistricts. going into october of 2006, we had cut their advantages down to single digits around those two important issues. and i think that's from an issue standpoint and from a structural standpoint, we were able to sort of take advantage of the wave that was coming. >> tara, you work with different politicians. you've -- your firm represents actually someone who's challenging in new jersey seven, which lance's district. and that's like exactly the kind of seat, right, that democrats should be able to win, if they're going to win a lot of seats. >> right. >> what do you think about the dynamics in those kinds of most vulnerable republican house seats, those top 20, 30 target races? >> well, what we're seeing right now is really strong favorables for democrats. so, number one, women, the energy and the activism that we're seei ing in these distric is overwhelmingly coming from women. that's why women candidates have an inherent advantage nah sense. i know people will say, it didn't work for hillary, but that's a different example. and this activism and actually, a lot of it is a result of hillary having lost. so she won the seven district where my candidate, linda weber is running, she won that by one point, despite the fact that the incumbent congressman stayed and got re-elected. the other dynamic that we're seeing is, if you look at what people are saying, a lot of people are saying, democrats don't have any issues, we are the issues. that's not really true. maybe nationally there's not a clear bumper sticker message, but locally, these democrats are running on strong support for public education, they're running on criminal justice reform. they're running on fixing the issues and many of these state legislatures, like oklahoma, where they've had budget shortfall after budget shortfall and scandal after scandal, they're running on very specific issues, with very specific messages, all politics is local. and democrats are digging in. >> to that point, i want to -- one of the things that you saw, i think, last -- this past election was organic, right? you saw the grassroots bubbling up. if you dgo back, chris, and loo at, what were their top 30 or so d dccc targets in '06, you would see quite frankly, we didn't do very well in that top 30 that the status quo recruited. what you're seeing right now is people saying, you know what? i'm going to run. you see a lot more organic and a lot more grassroots. and to that point, you have people that actually represent that district a lot more. and from a grassroots and an organic standpoint, as opposed to the national parties coming in and saying, you know what, chris, you look like someone who should represent this district. and people like us will never look like someone -- >> that is a great point. the big thing is like do you have candidates? and one of the things in virginia was, they just fielded challengers. and the question of like who those candidates are, where do they come from? the difference between whoever is the head of the d trip getting on the phone and being like, you used to play football in that district, as opposed to, i'm an activist in this district, i'm a mom, a schoolteacher, i'm a firefighter, and i'm frustrated and angry about what's going on, i'm going to run. >> right. and the other piece of this is also the turnout from -- and look, i think we had great candidates in virginia, but that was also a lot democratic, right? you had parts of identification for dems were better than ten points than it was last time, it was a lot more liberal. a lot browner than what it usually is. that's been our problem in mudd te midterms before. >> so what that electorate looks like. >> right. >> and how much that's a question of persuasion versus motivation. that oklahoma state senate seat, that was getting out the base in a very low turnout election, because it's a special election in a state senate, not even in a midterm year. it's going to be a bigger challenge, i think, in the midterms, don't you think? >> i think the midterms are going to be more difficult because of the gerrymandering, because of these voter i.d. laws. but i'll point out some examples. in new hampshire, are we picked up seats, we picked up seats in the state legislature, in new hampshire, after a voter i.d. law had been passed. and this is the 33rd. this seat last night was the